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The Monday Report - line your pockets with Silva...

Monday 8th March 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • 0-0 and 1-0 scores dominate…
  • First Goalscorer stats & winning streaks…
  • Champions League tomorrow…

The Monday Report - line your pockets with Silva…

Six of the weekend’s eight Premier League fixtures produced Under 2.5 Goals. And that comes after 13 out of the previous 17 games also went Under 2.5…

0-0 and 1-0 scores dominate…

The weekend ‘action’ – if you can call it that – included a pair of bore draws, West Brom 0 Newcastle 0, and Aston Villa 0 Wolves 0.

  • 13 of the last 25 Premier League games have seen 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 score-lines

There are two matches this evening. Chelsea v Everton at 6pm on BT Sport, then West Ham v Leeds at 8pm on Sky…

In our weekend Predictions table, 1-0 Chelsea is a popular choice. It’s the 11/2 (6.5) favourite in the betting, too.

  • Since Thomas Tuchel took over, Chelsea have won 7 games, with 4 of them paying out on the 1-0

First Scorer streaks…

Everton fans will point to the threat posed by the like of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison today. The latter is on a four-game run for First Goalscorer payouts. Could he do it again? Richarlison is 11/1 with Paddy Power.

Talking of First Scorer streaks, Norwich City striker Teemu Pukki was at it yet again at the weekend…

  • Pukki has scored the First goal in 5 of his last 6 games

Pukki has racked up nine goals in seven outings in the Championship – and he’s still five behind Brentford’s 25-goal man Ivan Toney at the top of the charts…

His Norwich side are top of the league though. And in the Scorer tables on our website, Pukki is ranked No.1 in the division for First Goalscorer payouts:

Championship Scorers Stats

Norwich’s next game is at Sheffield Wednesday this Sunday. In the early prices at Bet365, Pukki is just 9/4 (3.25) to opening the scoring yet again.

There’s another player in my notes for a First Scorer streak. And he’s available at bigger odds than both Richarlison and Pukki. I’ll tell you about that one tomorrow, ahead of the Tuesday night games in the Football League.

Standout stats…

Here are some more of my formbook observations from the weekend. With the latest stats available for each league and team on our website:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Championship winning runs…

  • League leaders Norwich have won 7 in a row. Barnsley are on an impressive 7-game winning streak, too. The Tykes are up to 6th and in the playoff places. Barnsley are at home v Derby County on Wednesday evening

Scoreboard deficit = most corners?

Of the five weekend Premier League games that produced a match winner, four of them saw the losing team win the Most Corners. And by a clear, 4+ corners margin in each case, too (Crystal Palace, Man City, Liverpool, Sheff Utd).

The one game they didn’t follow that pattern? That would be Brighton, my pick for the Most Corners v Leicester. And – until the weekend – the Seagulls were the team with the best home Most Corners win-rate in the league this season…

If it is a case of the scoreboard ruling over all, then Leicester’s late winning goal might be used to explain that one…

When the game was level at 1-1, Brighton were 6-4 ahead on the corners. Leicester got two late corner kicks to make the tally 6-6 – and scored the winning goal from the second of those, in the 87th minute.

If betting was as easy as following a simple rule, then we’d all be millionaires, Rodney…

Bayern Munich and the Goal Machine…

The weekend’s big game in the Bundesliga didn’t fail to deliver.

I’ve spent some time in Germany in my life, but I don’t know how to say the cream rises to the top in German. That was certainly the case on Saturday evening, with champions Bayern Munich coming from 0-2 down to win 4-2 against Borussia Dortmund

Both of Dortmund’s goals came from 20-year-old soon-to-be-superstar Erling Braut Haaland.

Not to be outdone, Bayern’s own goal machine, Robert Lewandowski, went one better and knocked in a hat-trick….

  • Lewandowski has scored in 13 of his last 14 Bundesliga appearances  

Better to line your pockets with Silva…

Interestingly though, while Lewandowski is 1st place in the German top-flight as the runaway overall Top Scorer (31 goals). And also top on our bet rankings for Anytime Scorer payouts (19 from 23 games). He’s not been the best man for First Goalscorer bets in the Bundesliga this season…

That accolade goes to Eintracht Frankfurt forward Andre Silva, who’s scored 19 goals in total – landing the First Scorer odds in seven out of 22 starts.

And if you add price into it, then Silva becomes an even more enticing proposition…

For example, in Betfred’s early prices for next weekend’s Bundesliga matches, Lewandowski is just 11/5 (3.2) to score First, while Silva is 13/2 (7.5).

Using those odds as a guide, to level stakes, you’d be in profit for following Silva to score First in every game he’s played this season (139% ROI). But if you took the same approach with Lewandowski, you’d actually be running at a loss (-30% ROI).

Bundesliga Scorers Stats

And finally, another reason to keep Andre Silva on the radar for Scorer bets: he’s a mean penalty taker, too…

  • Silva has scored 6 out of 6 penalties in the Bundesliga this season. Lewandowski has put away 6 out of 7

I’ll be back tomorrow, with two sets of fixtures in the cross-hairs – the Football League, and the Champions League.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues