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The Monday Report - those men again...

Monday 8th February 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Scorers keep on scoring…
  • Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo…
  • FA Cup this week…

The Monday Report - those men again…

There was no Half Time/ Full Time glory at the weekend. And as outlined in last week’s analysis – that’s completely to be expected…

The two targeted Premier League games for a 45 min/ 90 min scoreboard reversal settled as:

Tottenham 2 West Brom 0 (HT: 0-0)

Man Utd 3 Everton 3 (HT: 2-0)

My flip-flop speculations were at odds ranging from 22/1 – 66/1. Those two ended up as more modest HT/ FT outcomes…

The Draw/ Tottenham combo was just 3/1.

At Old Trafford, Man Utd to be winning at half time and drawing at full time was 16/1. With Everton pulling it back to 2-2 after the break, there was an exciting spell in the second half where the 50/1 away-team comeback was potentially ‘on.’

My two-year HT/ FT record for these long-range selections now reads three payouts from 22 attempts, across a total of 12 matches. But at those odds, it’s not the strike-rate that matters, it’s the prices of the payouts when they come…

The bottom line for those HT/ FT attempts? With three winners at odds of 28/1, 25/1, and 25/1, over a two-year period since Feb 2019: an ROI of 268%, to level stakes.

So, if you follow me on the big picks like a HT/ FT turnaround, the numbers are good – but it really is a long-term game, with patience required.

Scorers keep on scoring…

If you’re after more frequent payouts, albeit at less leg-trembling prices, then the league Scorer tables on our website are one area that you can go to…

For example, over the weekend, these chaps all found the net again, landing the odds in both the Anytime Scorer AND First Goalscorer markets:

  • Germany, Bundesliga – Wout Weghorst has now scored in 5 of his last 6 league games for Wolfsburg
  • Italy, Serie A – Ciro Immobile got the only goal of the game in a 1-0 win for Lazio on Sunday. Immobile has scored in 8 of his last 10 league appearances
  • Italy, Serie A – Zlatan Ibrahimovic was also at it again at the weekend. Zlatan scored twice in a 4-0 win for AC Milan, including the opener. He’s now landed First Goalscorer bets in a remarkable 8 out of 11 league apps this season

While we’re at it, longstanding world beaters Lionel Messi (Barcelona) and Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus) both scored at the weekend, too.

We spoke last month about the ‘back the best’ tactic. That is, betting on the most reliable names to deliver, when the price is right and the occasion suits…

Last night’s Super Bowl was the latest sporting example of that. Legendary quarterback Tom Brady guided the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to an underdog victory in the big NFL glamour match. Brady was named Most Valuable Player (MVP), collecting a record 7th Super Bowl ring.

Suarez the man for this evening…

In tonight’s football, backing the Spanish league’s top scorer to score again for La Liga leaders Atletico Madrid would tick the ‘back the best’ box, too…

Luis Suarez is enjoying a redemptive season. Surplus to requirements at Barcelona, the Uruguayan has stayed in Spain. And the move to Atletico is looking a very good one.

Atleti are top of the league. Disrupting the La Liga order of Real Madrid & Barca, as Diego Simeone’s side last did when taking the title in 2013/14.

With a couple of his teammates out missing for tonight’s home game v Celta Vigo due to coronavirus, including highly-rated youngster Joao Felix. Suarez is the go-to man for the occasion here…

  • Suarez has scored in 5 of his last 6 games for Atletico

When these side last met, in the reverse fixture in October, the Madrid side won 2-0 at Vigo – and Luis scored the first goal after just 6 minutes.

  • Suarez is top scorer in La Liga this season, with 14 goals from 16 appearances

Luis has landed Anytime Scorer bets on 10 occasions. Making him a profitable season-to-date bet at tonight’s Anytime odds of Even Money (2.0).

Here’s the top of our Scorers table for La Liga, from our website:

La Liga Scorers Stats

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here is my pick for today…

Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo

Spain, La Liga – 8pm

  • Anytime Scorer: Luis Suarez @ Evens (2.0) with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Sporting Index (Fixed Odds Sportsbook) 

FA Cup this week…

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the midweek games. We’ve got two outsiders running for us in the FA Cup 5th round, 28/1 Southampton and 66/1 Sheffield United.

Plus, there’s English Football League action, as well as the Coppa Italia, and the Copa del Rey in Spain.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues