Thursday 5th September 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Scotland v Poland…
• Denmark v Switzerland…
• Portugal v Croatia…

Tonight: Nations League nailbiters at 40/1…

We love a big-odds angle here at Across the Leagues…

And one that has been very good for us in recent times is what I call, ‘3 for 33’… with three draws tending to pay around the 33/1 mark…

Tonight’s opening salvo of UEFA Nations League fixtures looks like one of these situations to me…

Three games where it’s not hard to make a case for the draw… where it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the final score ending all-square… and where the odds roll-up for what could be a nail-biting end to the evening’s proceedings on the betting front…

Some games just feel like a draw. But I’m talking about more than a hunch. These are judgements made on form and facts. And some football nations are just very closely matched…

Scotland v Poland

7.45pm, ITV4

Match odds:
Scotland 7/5 (2.4) – Draw 21/10 (3.1) – Poland 2/1 (3.0)

• Scotland and Poland last met in a 2022 Friendly, with the final score 1-1. Going back further, their last 3 encounters have all ended in draws. As have 4 out of 5 on the historical head-to-head going back to 2001 (and 5 out of 6 if you go right back to 1990!)

• More recently, in March of this year: Poland drew 0-0 in Wales in normal time, in the Euro 2024 Playoffs. And that came after finishing their Euro Qualifying campaign with back-to-back 1-1 draws against Moldova and Czechia

• Scotland have drawn 2 of their last 4 matches, and 4 of their last 9 in all competitions

Denmark v Switzerland

7.45pm

Match odds:
Denmark 7/5 (2.4) – Draw 11/5 (3.2) – Switzerland 21/10 (3.1)

• 2 of the last 3 meetings between Denmark and Switzerland have paid out on the draw. With the most recent being a goalless International Friendly in March. If you’re prepared to go back through the years, then 4 of their last 6 clashes have ended all-square

• The Danes drew 3 of their 4 matches at Euro 2024 this summer: 1-1, 1-1, and 0-0

• The Swiss have drawn 4 of their last 6 in all comps, with all 4 of those stalemates paying out on the 1-1 Correct Score in normal time

As you can see by the match odds above, the bookies are finding it hard to put much daylight between those teams today.

And while the oddsmakers have a stronger opinion about the third fixture on our hitlist, this one also has the makings of a close-run scoreboard in my opinion…

Portugal v Croatia

7.45pm

Match odds:
Portugal 8/15 (1.53) – Draw 16/5 (4.2) – Croatia 11/2 (6.5)

• These two signed off at Euro 2024 with a pair of draws each, including back-to-back 0-0’s that went to extra time for Portugal

• The historical head-to-head says there’s rarely much between Portugal and Croatia: 2 draws from the last 5 encounters, and only once in 6 meetings has more than one goal separated them on the day

We’ll play the three draws this evening: three singles, and the big-odds treble – with 40/1 on offer…

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

UEFA Nations League, 7.45pm

• Scotland v Poland – Draw @ 43/20 (3.15) Unibet, 21/10 (3.1) general 

• Denmark v Switzerland – Draw @ 11/5 (3.2) Unibet, William Hill, 21/10 (3.1) general

• Portugal v Croatia – Draw @ 16/5 (4.2) Unibet, William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports, 3/1 (4.0) general 

• Treble – 3 Draws @ 41/1 Unibet, 40/1 William Hill, 39/1 Skybet, 35/1+ general

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back tomorrow with your weekend preview, including stats and selections for the games taking place in the English Football League.

Enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues