Friday 9th August 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• English Football League starts tonight…
• League Winner combo at 90/1…
• Promotion picks at 80/1…

Two EFL mega-accas – at 80/1 and 90/1…

Good morning. The 2024/25 English Football League (EFL) season kicks-off this weekend. And as promised, we’re going after some big odds in the ante-post markets for the Championship, League One, and League Two…

The first games take place this evening (8pm). Bookies will take down their Outright markets during play. So, if you miss these bets today – look to get on Saturday morning instead…

Earlier this week I laid out a whole load of Top Goalscorer and Penalty Taker stats from recent EFL seasons. Get the full picture for the past eight seasons here.

We’re actually going to hold fire for a while in the 2024/25 top-scorer markets. The transfer window is still open – and doesn’t close until the end of the month (30th August). I had a handful or so players in my initial notes. But as it stands, each has been scrubbed off my scorer list for now, on the grounds of price, transfer uncertainty, or injury/ illness. I shall report back with regards to the respective Top Goalscorer opportunities in the EFL divisions, in the days and weeks to come…

The Championship, League One, and League Two all play 46-game seasons. It’s very much a marathon and not a sprint…

That said, we still want to get on some good day-one prices where we can. And the outright League Winner and Promotion markets are two best fits for that approach for us, ahead of the opening round of 2024/25 EFL fixtures this weekend…

League Winner combo @ 90/1…

In terms of straight-up league-winner betting, I’m going to do something I don’t often do – and put up a few of the favourites…

Championship – Leeds United @ 3/1

Leeds came oh-so-close to getting back out of the Championship last season. Finishing 3rd – and then pipped by Southampton in the playoff final, 1-0. They look very well-equipped to go well again. German manager Daniel Farke won the English Championship title not once but twice with Norwich. And Farke also hit the impressive 90-point mark in the English second tier last season, in his first term at Elland Road…

Only the promoted trio of Ipswich, Leicester, and Southampton scored more Championship goals than Leeds in 2023/24. And with 20-year-old Mateo Joseph installed as the bookies’ pre-season favourite – at as short as 7/1 – to burst onto the scene and land the Championship Top Goalscorer gong. The signs look good for the men in white to put together a quality campaign.

League One – Birmingham City @ 15/8

As I say, it’s not often we’d take short prices in a market like this. But with some serious money behind them, and new signings to go with it – Birmingham do look worthy contenders to bounce straight back up to the Championship. The standout transfer business in my eyes for the Blues – so far – is the arrival of last season’s League One top scorer, Alfie May. The oddsmakers have May at 4/1 at best to do it again.

I’ve been in this game long enough to know that there is no such thing as a one-horse-race in the EFL. Birmingham are out in front in the pre-season betting for a reason, though. Sitting within doubles and a treble as part of our mega-acca, Birmingham at just under 2/1 can multiply the other prices in our Trixie, very nicely indeed (see below).

League Two – Chesterfield @ 7/1

While Leeds had playoff heartbreak last season, and Birmingham were relegated – our third pick Chesterfield romped to the National League title. Paul Cook’s side finished a cool 12 points clear at the top of the table. And with majority owners Phil and Ashley Kirk putting up the cash, the Spireites are on a quest to climb the Football League ladder. There’s a recent blueprint here: in 2022/23, Wrexham won the National League, and backed it up right away with a 2nd place finish and promotion from League Two. We’ve seen it several times in recent years. Clubs can climb the ladder fast, with money and momentum on their side.

Will Grigg is a familiar name up front for Chesterfield, and a highly proven scorer in the Football League. At 10/1, Skybet make Grigg a joint-favourite for League Two Top Goalscorer.

Chesterfield’s chairman referred to his club’s current ownership situation as like winning the lottery. If we can click for all three picks here, we’ll feel a little bit like that, too…

The treble on Leeds, Birmingham, and Chesterfield pays 90/1+ with a few firms – see below.

• The advice here is a Trixie, which is made up of 3 doubles, and the treble (eg. total stake 4 points). Any 2 league winners here would generate a profit. All 3 would land a bumper payout

Promotion progress @ 80/1…

In the promotion markets, the following three clubs can all continue their positive steps from recent seasons. With ‘To be Promoted’ bets paying out whether you win the title, gain automatic promotion, or go up via the playoffs…

Championship – Coventry City @ 9/2

Coventry have been in my notes for a few seasons now. Mark Robins is the longest-serving manager in the EFL – with only Pep Guardiola having a longer current reign in England, at Premier League champions Man City. Under Robins, the Sky Blues have improved pretty much season-on-season, looking to finally shake-off years of financial problems and calamitous off-pitch happenings…

Back in March 2023, I gave an update on Coventry’s progress. The upward trajectory has been mighty impressive:

2023/24: Championship: 5th (Playoff Final – lost on Penalties)
^
2022/23: Championship: 9th
^
2021/22: Championship: 12th
^ 
2020/21: Championship: 16th   
^ 
2019/20: League One: 1st – Promoted (Champions) 
^
2018/19 – League One: 8th  
^ 
2017/18 – League Two: 6th – Promoted (Playoffs) 

Last season, Coventry finished 9th in the Championship. That’s despite selling star striker Viktor Gyokeres. You can add an impressive FA Cup semi-final run to Cov’s 2023/24 campaign, too.

The Sky Blues have spent well ahead of the upcoming campaign. I particularly like the acquisition of Ephron Mason-Clark. The 24-year-old attacker was Peterborough’s top scorer in League One last season. While 23-year-old Ellis Simms is star in the making. At odds of around 4/1, Coventry are the Championship leg of our Promotion combo.

League One – Wrexham @ 5/1

It’s that theme again: rich owners, and a club climbing the rungs fast. Wrexham’s Hollywood tale is much documented. They won the National League, and then came up from League Two as runners-up. I wouldn’t put it past them making it three promotions in a row…

The good vibes show no signs of stopping yet, and the transfer business continues. Last season’s top scorer Paul Mullin is a proper striker, too. At odds of 5/1 for promotion, Wrexham can give us a good run for our money throughout the season, chasing a playoff spot or better to put us in with a shout come next Easter and beyond.

League Two – Doncaster Rovers @ 2/1

Doncaster were our playoff picks at the end of last season, and suffered a penalty shootout defeat in the semis. Rovers look well-set to pick themselves up and challenge again…

Billy Sharp is a veteran Football League goal-machine; the 38-year-old one of a stack of free transfers brought in this summer. Grant McCann got Rovers going well in his first season at the helm, and can build on that in season two.

The promotion treble on Coventry, Wrexham, and Doncaster pays 80/1. We’ll take the same Trixie tactic as above…

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

English Football League 2024/25 Outrights
Championship – League One – League Two

LEAGUE WINNERS:

• Trixie: Leeds, Birmingham, Chesterfield – best odds Betfred (92.5/1 the treble), Bet365 (91/1), Unibet, BetUK & BetMGM (90/1) 

PROMOTION:

• Trixie: Coventry, Wrexham, Doncaster – best odds BetVictor (81.5/1 the treble), William Hill, 888 Sport (80/1), Bet365 (79/1) 

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back next week, when it’ll be time to get ready for KO in the Premier League…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues