Tuesday 14th January 2025

In Across the Leagues today:

• FA Cup progress…
• Big game at the top of the Premier League…
• Back the wing-backs… 

Two picks for Nottingham Forest v Liverpool tonight…

The FA Cup panned out okay for us at the weekend…

We put up two in-form Premier League ‘surprise packages’ as Each Way outsiders for the cup:

Nottingham Forest beat Luton 2-0 in the 3rd Round. Our 40/1 shots are now 25/1 in general - and as short as 16/1 with some firms.

Bournemouth came from behind to thump West Brom, 5-1. The Cherries can still be backed at 33/1 with several bookies.

Latest FA Cup Outright Winner odds here

• The 4th Round takes place on the weekend of 8th Feb. Forest are away at Exeter, and Bournemouth go to Everton

There’s a full midweek Premier League programme starting from tonight. All 10 games are live on TNT Sports. And high-flying Forest are in action against the league leaders…

Nottingham Forest v Liverpool tonight…

Forest are the only team to have beaten Liverpool in the league this season. Nuno’s side won 1-0 at Anfield in September.

• Fun fact: 4 of the last 6 meetings between these clubs in all competitions have ended 1-0 (2 wins each by that score-line)

In the Head-2-Head, 2024/25 Home v Away comparison on our website, the Cards stats catch my eye in this match-up…

• Forest haven’t received the Most Cards in any of their 9 Premier League home games this season…
• While Liverpool have got the First Card in 4 of their last 5 away games

William Hill have got both teams at the same 17/20 (1.85) price for the First Card in tonight’s game. And also a matching set of odds when it comes to the Most Booking Points, with Forest and Liverpool each priced at 6/5 (2.2).

The reverse fixture at Anfield ended with four yellow cards apiece (40 Booking Points each). Liverpool wing-backs Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold were booked in that game…

In fact, Robertson has got a yellow card in his last two starts against Forest. And so has Trent.

In the midfield engine-room for Liverpool, there’s also a case to be made for the likes of Ryan Gravenberch and Dominik Szoboszlai. Although only one of those two might make the starting XI this evening…

Fellow midfielder Alexis MacAllister leads the way for the visitors in terms of First Carded Player payouts this season: three of his five bookings have been the first of the game…

And with another five-card South American suspended for Liverpool tonight (Darwin Nunez), you can see why the bookies have MacAllister as a 10/1 favourite in the First Carded Player betting, and around 2/1 (3.0) to be Carded at any stage of play.

With the prices in mind, as well as that recent track record against Nottingham Forest. I’d say the slightly bigger odds for Robertson and Alexander-Arnold are the ones to take here…

Trent has been eager to impress/ prove critics wrong of late. But that can overspill into card-worthy behaviour once emotions are running high in the heat of a match. Robertson has paid out for a card in two of his last five appearances.

The City Ground will be rocking for this top-of-the-table encounter this evening. The home crowd could play a part here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Liverpool full-back take down one of Forest’s flying attackers, such as the tricky Anthony Elanga, who is on 83 crosses for the season.

Premier League 2024/25: Liverpool’s Most Carded Players:

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TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details

Nottingham Forest v Liverpool

Premier League - TONIGHT 8pm, TNT Sports

• Player to get a Card: Andy Robertson @ 19/5 (4.8) Unibet (& BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet), 3/1 (4.0) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/4 (3.75) Bet365, Betfred 
• Player to get a Card: Trent Alexander-Arnold @ 10/3 (4.33) Unibet (& BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet), 3/1 (4.0) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/4 (3.75) Bet365, Betfred

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I’ll be back again on Thursday with a stats update for you, with the upcoming weekend fixtures in mind.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues