Tuesday 3rd January 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• 20/1 Shankland and 80/1 Nombe well in the running…
• Arsenal v Newcastle, 7.45pm - Sky Sports…
• Leicester v Fulham, 7.45pm… 

Two Premier League picks for tonight…

Hello and Happy New Year…

I got back from the Peak District last night, just in time to watch the second half of Brentford’s 3-1 win over Liverpool. That result landed the first leg of this week’s 16/1 ATL Extra ‘Predictor’ Acca (view the email here).

While I was coming down the M1, BBC Radio Five Live kept telling me that Hearts had beaten Hibernian, 3-0 - but their rolling reports failed to mention who scored…

I was thinking to myself, if Hearts have scored three, then Lawrence Shankland has probably got on the scoresheet. Turns out he got two…

Our man Shankland - backed at top prices of 20/1 and 18/1 Each Way (1/4 odds 1-3 places) for Scottish Premiership top scorer at the start of the season - is currently joint-top of the standings, with 15 goals. Level with Celtic’s Kyogo Furuhashi.

• Shankland has scored 6 goals in 4 games since 17th December. Four of those were penalties, taking Lawrence’s spot-kick conversion record to an impressive 8 out of 8 this season

It was also a prolific festive period for our big-odds pick in English League One…

Back in August, we got on Sam Nombe at standout odds of 80/1 or 50/1 Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places) for Top Goalscorer. The Exeter forward has knocked in three goals in two games, and Sam now sits on 11 for the season - putting him inside the Top 4, Each Way places as it stands. And just two goals off the leaders.

After those recent scoring exploits…

• Shankland is now 4/1 at best to be Scottish Premiership top scorer. And Nombe is 18/1 (Skybet), and 16/1 in general - with bookies now offering 3 Each Way places in League One, compared to 4 when we backed him in the summer

No counting of chickens there. But as recently proved at the World Cup, when it comes to our big-odds picks, it only takes one…

• On a match by match and week to week basis, lookout for Lawrence Shankland and Sam Nombe in the First/ Last/ Anytime Scorer markets, too. Shankland has scored in 4 games in a row for Hearts; Nombe 2 in a row for Exeter 

Scottish Premiership 2022/23 - Top Scorers:

English League One 2022/23 - Top Scorers:

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www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Premier League - stats picks for tonight…

There’s a full midweek round of Premier League action taking place, before the FA Cup 3rd Round takes centre stage in its traditional early January slot this weekend.

Four games in the English top-flight this evening:

Arsenal v Newcastle - 7.45pm, Sky Sports
Everton v Brighton - 7.45pm
Leicester v Fulham - 7.45pm
Man Utd v Bournemouth - 8pm

Arsenal v Newcastle

It’s 1st v 3rd at the Emirates, and the Sky Sports cameras are here for this one…

Arsenal have won nine of their last 10 games, Newcastle are unbeaten in 12, and both clubs have only lost once in the league all season.

The Head-2-Head comparison on our website identifies a betting opportunity in the Corners stats:

• Arsenal have won the Most Corners in 7 out of 7 home Premier League games this season (100%). And landed -1 Corner Handicap bets in 6 out of 7 (86%)
• Newcastle have won the Most Corners in just 3 of their 8 away games (38%)

The Gunners are a top price of 4/7 (1.57) for the Most Corners with William Hill. And that Arsenal price is also available in Bet365’s Corners Match Bet market.

For slightly bigger odds, I’m recommending the Arsenal -1 Corner Handicap option, which pays out if the hosts win 2+ corners more than Newcastle.

Arsenal v Newcastle - Head-2-Head Home v Away - Corners stats:

Leicester v Fulham

The Corners stats also throw up a promising match-up in this one - but this time with the edge going to the away team…

• Leicester have won the Most Corners in just one of their 8 home league games this season (13%)
• Fulham have won the Most Corners in 3 of their last 5 away games

The visitors can be backed at a best-price 11/8 (2.38) for the Most Corners today (Skybet, Betway). But I prefer to take Fulham with the head-start available in the Handicap market…

Bets on Fulham +1 Corner Handicap have paid out in six of their last seven games. That includes Most Corners wins at Leeds (3-6) and away to nine-man Crystal Palace (1-8). As well as convincing 13-4 and 10-3 corner tallies at home against Everton and Man Utd, respectively.

The Fulham +1 Corner Handicap pays out if the Cottagers win the Most Corners at Leicester tonight, or if it’s a Corners Draw.

Leicester v Fulham - Head-2-Head Home v Away - Corners stats:

TODAY’S PICKS

Arsenal v Newcastle

• Arsenal -1 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 20/23 (1.87) Boylesports, BetVictor, Betway, 17/20 (1.85) William Hill, Unibet, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365

Leicester v Fulham

• Fulham +1 Corner Handicap @ 17/20 (1.85) Betway, William Hill, 4/5 (1.8) Boylesports, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/10 (1.7) BetVictor 

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

I’ll be back tomorrow with more Premier League stats and advice for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues