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International analysis - including Spain v Germany tonight...

Tuesday 17th November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Venezuela v Chile, 9pm…
  • Spain v Germany, 7.45pm…
  • Vidal and Werner…

International analysis - including Spain v Germany tonight…

Arturo Vidal captained his country to victory over Peru on Friday night…

The 33-year-old midfielder scored both goals in a 2-0 win, in the latest round of South American qualifying for World Cup 2022.

Those qualifiers continue this evening, with Chile away at Venezuela (9pm).

Vidal is a man in my sights right now. His scoring stats for his country, and his overall disciplinary record, make him a player to follow again today…

While Vidal has managed just one goal in his last 21 appearances in club football, for Barcelona last season, and now Inter Milan. His International record is a different story:

  • Vidal has scored in 4 of last his last 6 games for Chile, bagging a total of 5 goals in that time. Accounting for 5 of his country’s 9 goals across those matches

He takes penalties for Chile, too.

Vidal’s yellow card reputation is well documented throughout his career. Here are his latest stats in that department:

  • Booked in 4 of last 7 appearances for Chile
  • Yellows in 5 of last 8 games for Inter Milan

As with last Friday night’s Chile game, only one sportsbook are offering the To get a Card market here. 888 Sport, Unibet & 32RedSport run off the same prices, and go 2/1 (3.0) for Vidal to be carded against Venezuela this evening.

To reiterate what I wrote last week – if you can get that 2/1 for Vidal, then his bookings stats say it’s a decent price.

And at odds of 13/5 (3.6) and 5/2 (3.5) in the Anytime Scorer betting, his International record makes him a man to follow again in that market, too. He paid out at similar odds at the weekend.

Fans of historical head-to-heads might like to note that Chile have beaten Venezuela five times in a row, going back to 2012. Chile’s most recent trip to tonight’s hosts ended in a 4-1 away win, with that man Vidal on the scoresheet twice.

Venezuela have lost each of their three games in World Cup Qualifying this year, and are yet to score. Narrow 1-0 defeats to Paraguay last month, and then Brazil last weekend, suggest that this is no easy trip for Chile today, though, with the away win priced at 6/5 (2.2).

I prefer the bigger prices for Vidal.

Luxembourg v Azerbaijan – bore-draw form…

Elsewhere in the International notebook for this evening, Luxembourg v Azerbaijan could be short on goalmouth action – especially if the away team’s form line is anything to go by…

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in eight of Azerbaijan’s last nine games, although the one exception was a 2-1 loss at home v Luxembourg. Of even greater note is this stat:

  • Each of Azerbaijan’s last 3 games have ended 0-0

The bookmakers make Under 2.5 Goals a 1/2 (1.5) shot this evening. And in the First Goalscorer market, ‘No Goalscorer’ is an 11/2 (6.5) favourite.

If it does end goalless, that would be an unwanted 0-0 ‘bore draw’ record for Azerbaijan.

Spain v Germany – Timo the value…

Timo Werner is on a scoring streak at the moment. The jet-heeled 24-year-old has found the net in each of his last five games for club & country.

Another scoring performance tonight to make it six games in a row would be a new personal best for the German forward…

Werner bagged a brace in Germany’s 3-1 win v Ukraine on Saturday. Backing up a recent four-match scoring run for Chelsea in the Premier League & Champions League.

Taking the form back a little further:

  • Timo has scored in 7 of his last 9 games overall

In a Germany shirt, he’s got on the scoresheet in three out of five appearances in 2020. Including his country’s goal in a 1-1 draw in their last meeting with Spain…

With the Germans in Spain this evening, Anytime Scorer odds of 9/5 (2.8) and 7/4 (2.75) appeal for Werner.

It’s not a direct comparison, of course, but you won’t get those odds for him to score in the Newcastle v Chelsea game in the Premier League this coming weekend.

For another price comparison to consider, Cristiano Ronaldo is 5/6 (1.83) in general to score for Portugal in Croatia tonight. Ronnie has scored in six of his last 10 apps in all comps, and in two out of five for Portugal this year.

Werner looks good at tonight’s odds, especially his with current form in mind.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my selections for this evening…

Venezuela v Chile

World Cup Qualifying, South America (CONMEBOL)
9pm

  • Anytime Scorer: Arturo Vidal @ 13/5 (3.6) with Betway, Skybet, Labrokes, Coral, 5/2 (3.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Boylesports
  • To get a Card: Arturo Vidal @ 2/1 (3.0) with 888 Sport, Unibet & 32RedSport

Spain v Germany

UEFA Nations League
7.45pm – Sky Sports

  • Anytime Scorer: Timo Werner @ 9/5 (2.8) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/4 (2.75) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back tomorrow with my next stats, analysis and advice for you. There’s more International football coming up, plus the return of the domestic leagues and the Premier League at the weekend.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues