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International analysis - England v Iceland tonight...

Wednesday 18th November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • England v Iceland, 7.45pm…
  • The Wembley trend…
  • Coming up – Half Time/ Full Time research…

International analysis – England v Iceland tonight…

Arturo Vidal has had a fruitful spell of International duty for Chile this month. The 33-year-old midfielder was his country’s sole goal-scorer again last night, netting in a 2-1 defeat in Venezuela.

That’s the second time in two matches that Vidal has rewarded backers at odds of 5/2 (3.5) and greater in the Anytime Scorer market. Having also bagged both goals in Chile’s 2-0 win v Peru last weekend.

While he’s one to look out for when representing Chile in those World Cup 2022 Qualifiers in the months to come, Vidal is a much less enticing prospect to score when plying his trade in the midfield engine room at Inter Milan. He’s yet to find the net in 10 appearances since arriving in Italy this season.

6-0 and 0-0…

Tuesday’s other highlighted scorer selection drew a blank, with Timo Werner and Germany humiliated in a 6-0 thrashing at the hands of Spain.

Did anyone pick that crazy 6-0 Correct Score?!

One score-line that you might have been more likely to dabble in was the 0-0 or ‘No Goalscorer’ option for Luxembourg v Azerbaijan…

That game cropped up in our International notes in yesterday’s email. Azerbaijan have now played out four 0-0 draws in a row, and all in a short space of time:

13th Oct – Azerbaijan 0 Cyprus 0
11th Nov – Slovenia 0 Azerbaijan 0
14th Nov – Azerbaijan 0 Montenegro
17th Nov – Luxembourg 0 Azerbaijan 0

That’s a bizarre and remarkable trend. It almost came to an end last night. Luxembourg missed a penalty in the first half – and the ‘bore draw’ run continued. Unsurprisingly, four goalless draws in a row is a new national record for Azerbaijan.

England at Wembley, episode 42…

England play Iceland this evening, and I can’t let the final Three Lions home game of the year pass without acknowledging my favourite Wembley stats trend…

  • England have won the Most Corners in 35 of their last 41 games at Wembley Stadium (85%)

The most recent of those was a massive 12-2 corners win in a 3-0 victory v Republic of Ireland last week.

Gareth Southgate’s side lost 2-0 in Belgium on Sunday, but notched up another Most Corners triumph (if nothing else) – and this time away from home, too. The corners score ending 1-5.

Southgate’s side return to the national stadium in London tonight. And while this UEFA Nations League match v Iceland is a dead rubber, and an experimental and/ or youthful line-up can be expected. There have been plenty of Friendly outings and less-than-meaningful games in that 41-game Wembley timeframe noted above…

Iceland certainly don’t bring any kind of ominous corner-winning form:

  • Iceland have been out-cornered in 7 out of 7 games in 2020

Last weekend, Iceland lost 2-1 in Denmark, and the corners tally was 4-1 to the Danes. Before that, they also fell to a 2-1 defeat in Hungary, and the corners that night ended 9-3.

In Belgium in September, Iceland were beaten 5-1 – with a corners score of 7-3 to the hosts.

And in-between those results, Iceland also suffered corners defeats at home in three out of three matches.

England won 1-0 in Iceland in their last meeting in September, with an away-day 7-1 corners score to Southgate’s side.

Going back to some bad memories for England fans, the corners tally the night that Iceland knocked the Three Lions out of Euro 2016 was 7-2 to England.

At present, we don’t know when the next Home International at Wembley Stadium will be. Certainly not until 2021. With an away side badly out of form (the Iceland manager departs after tonight’s game), and England’s squad boasting some exciting young talent like teenager Jude Bellingham, along with the creative edge of Jack Grealish. Another dominant corners score could well be on the cards this evening…

England are 1/5 (1.2) at best to win the game, and even shorter for the Most Corners, at just 1/10 (1.1). The England -4 Corner Handicap is my pick, available at around 10/11 (1.91).

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here is my pick for this evening’s game…

UEFA Nations League

England v Iceland
7.45pm – Sky Sports

  • England -4 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 9/10 (1.9) Bet365 (Asian Handicap Corners -4.5), 17/20 (1.85) BetVictor

Corner Handicap options also available with William Hill, Skybet, 888 Sport, Unibet, Betway, Marathonbet, NetBet, 10Bet.

I’ll be back tomorrow with my next article. Ahead of the return of the Premier League this weekend, I’ve been researching Half Time/ Full Time trends. This is an area with the potential for finding some big odds. I’ll present my findings for you on Thursday.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues