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A low-key treble for this evening at 26/1...

Tuesday 13th October 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Wembley winning streak…
  • Nations League tonight…
  • Three games to target for low scores…

A low-key treble for this evening at 26/1…

We ended up treading water at the weekend…

For the third time in as many weeks, we had an Anytime Scorer pick go down as void with stakes returned. This time it was Stephan El Shaarawy, not even making the bench for Italy in Poland. It turns out they could’ve done with him – the game ended goalless. Let’s see if El Shaarawy makes the cut for Italy’s next game.

On Friday night, Hull’s 100% start to the League One season came crashing to an end. Losing 4-1 at Fleetwood.

England remained as reliable as ever at Wembley, though…

A 7-5 corners score in Sunday’s 2-1 win against Belgium taking the Three Lions’ Most Corners record to 34 payouts from their last 39 outings at the national stadium (87%). Over the weekend, England for the Most Corners was widely available at Even Money (2.0) and better.

  • We’ll be looking to follow that England trend again in the stats markets for Wednesday’s Nations League game v Denmark

Live on the BBC…

There’s a range of competitions for us to look at in the next seven days or so.

Midweek, the Internationals continue with UEFA Nations Leagues fixtures taking centre stage (see below).

There’s also the 3rd Qualifying Round of the FA Cup this evening. There’s one more round after this – and then teams can dream of getting a nice draw in the 1st Round proper.

Two clubs have benefitted from unfortunate circumstances and got a Bye through to the final qualifying round today. Hemel Hempstead and Brackley Town have got the free pass, due to opponents Boston Utd and Kettering Town respectively having to pull out because of coronavirus outbreaks.

Incidentally, I was at Brackley’s ground for their televised FA Cup upset over Football League side Gillingham a couple of years back. I remember David James was one of the pundits holding a microphone on the touchline. He’s very tall in real life. Anyway…

The TV cameras will be on the south coast this evening, for the FA Cup tie between Christchurch and Dulwich Hamlet. What a huge night for those players. And 500 fans are being allowed into the ground, too. That one is being shown on the BBC (iPlayer/ website/ BBC Sport app).

Coming up at the weekend, the Premier League and top divisions are back. And there are some big derbies on the fixture list – Everton v Liverpool, Celtic v Rangers, and Inter Milan v AC Milan.

Then next week, we have the start of the Champions League 2020/21. We’ll be looking into the ante post markets for big-price opportunities and Each Way value.

Lots to look forward to.

For this evening, we’re dealing in some less glamourous match-ups…

Latvia, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg… low goals…

Last week we noted some tight score-lines in the Euro 2020 qualifying playoffs, including 0-0 draws in normal time for both Scotland and Republic of Ireland.

Tonight, we’re anticipating some close or uneventful outcomes in the latest round of Nations League group games. Here are the key stats to consider:

Latvia v Malta (5pm)

  • Latvia have won just one of their last 26 games. They’ve had 6 games in a row go Under 2.5 Goals. All 4 of their matches in 2020 have ended in draws: 0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1. One of those 1-1 scores was against Malta
  • Malta are 34 away games without victory. Their last 3 Internationals have all gone Under 2.5 Goals, including a goalless draw in Andorra last weekend. Barring a 3-2 defeat at the Faroe Islands, Malta’s other away results against this level of opposition over the last 12 months or so have all been low-scoring affairs: 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0

Montenegro v Luxembourg (7.45pm)

  • Take out a 7-0 thumping away defeat to England, and Montenegro’s 6 other matches since last September have all gone Under 2.5 Goals. In 2020, those score-lines have been: 0-2 and 0-1 wins on the road, followed by 1-1 and 2-0 results at home
  • Luxembourg lost 0-1 at home to Montenegro last month

Liechtenstein v San Marino (7.45pm)

San Marino have lost a staggering – if unsurprising – 40 games in a row. In 37 of those 40 defeats, the perennial minnows have been losing at both Half Time and Full Time. Isolate the away form, and San Marino have lost a whopping 50 in a row. And been losing at HT & FT in each of their last 23 on their travels.

This evening’s hosts Liechtenstein suffering a shock 0-1 home defeat v 5/1 match underdogs Gibraltar at the weekend. If you’re looking for a follow-up match to bounce back in, then on paper you would pick San Marino as your opponent. The goals form says not to expect a hammering, though:

  • Liechtenstein have only won 2 of their last 17 Internationals. Those scores being 2-1 in Luxembourg and 2-0 in San Marino. Their previous two meetings with San Marino ended in a pair of 1-0 wins
  • San Marino haven’t scored in any of their last 11 away games. They went down 1-0 in Gibraltar in September, and 4-0 at Slovenia last Wednesday

Take your pick…

The overriding theme across those three Nations League match-ups is poor form – and low goals.

The home team is the Match Result favourite in each case. While Montenegro and Liechtenstein have a case for underwhelming 1-0 or 2-0 score-lines, 2020 draw specialists Latvia are more of a contender for a 0-0 or 1-1…

With those observations in mind, I’m slotting those games into two trebles today:

The Under 2.5 Goals combo pays around 5/2 (3.5).

And in the Match Result & Under 2.5 Total Goals markets, this trio of outcomes pays a top price 26/1:

Latvia v Malta – Draw & Under 2.5 Goals
Montenegro to Win & Under 2.5 Goals
Liechtenstein to Win & Under 2.5 Goals

The formbook says those games might not be too exciting to watch. But being in with a chance of a 26/1 payout would get the pulse racing…

Today’s picks

UEFA Nations League

Live on Sky Sports Interactive (‘Red Button’)

Latvia v Malta (5pm)
Montenegro v Luxembourg (7.45pm)
Liechtenstein v San Marino (7.45pm)

  • TREBLE – Under 2.5 Goals @ 5/2 (3.5) with Bet365, VBet, Betfred, Betway, BetVictor, 12/5 (3.4) in general
  • TREBLE – Latvia-Malta Draw & Under 2.5 Goals, Montenegro Win & Under 2.5 Goals, Liechtenstein Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 26/1 with Betway, 24/1 Boylesports, Betfred, 23/1 Ladbrokes, Coral

I’ll be back tomorrow, when we’ll be looking at England v Denmark, as well as the Scorer options for Scotland, Italy and others…

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues