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Weekend angles - including a 4/1 shot tonight...

Friday 9th October 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Fleetwood v Hull tonight…
  • England v Belgium – Wembley Corners…
  • Poland v Italy – Scorer selection…

Weekend angles – including a 4/1 shot tonight…

A case of Sod’s Law yesterday…

I wrote up Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and even named the article after him. While my two match-day picks Edin Dzeko and Lyndon Dykes drew blanks, the England debutant – of course – went and scored the first goal in a 3-0 Friendly win over Wales.

I’ll never apologise for swerving a bet on the grounds of price, though. The young Everton forward was odds-on in the Anytime Scorer market. The news broke late that default market favourite Harry Kane was to be rested. Opening the door for Calvert-Lewin to lead the line.

Danny Ings got on the scoresheet, too. Both Ings and Calvert-Lewin can be backed at around 2/1 each to find the net against Belgium on Sunday. Those larger odds are warranted by the step up to a competitive fixture (Nations League), and more importantly, a tougher opponent on paper.

  • See below for more on England v Belgium

Tight score-lines in the playoffs…

Going back to Dzeko (for Bosnia) and Dykes, we were certainly in the right ballpark…

Bosnia continued their first-goal record at home, taking the lead v Northern Ireland in the first half. Bosnia & Herzegovina have now scored first in eight of their last nine home games. The early goal didn’t help them last night, though. The game ended 1-1 after extra time, with Northern Ireland going through on penalties.

We anticipated some low-scoring ties in those tense Euro 2020 qualification playoffs. So it proved, with Scotland 0 Israel 0 and Slovakia 0 Rep of Ireland 0 both also requiring penalties – and before that, a pillow and a comfortable chair.

In the Scotland game, the first meaningful Shot on Target didn’t arrive until after the 70th minute. It was very slim pickings for our man Lyndon Dykes, who ended up meandering around as some kind of tall left-winger.

Scotland eventually put everyone out of their misery with a penalty shootout victory. Rep of Ireland had to take the gut-punch of going out on pens.

  • The Euro 2020 playoff finals take place a month from now, on the evening of Thursday 12th November

Stick with El Shaarawy…

Stephan El Shaarawy is a player we mentioned around transfer deadline day. He didn’t get his move from China back to Serie A this time (watch this space). But the striker was back in Italy on International duty on Wednesday, scoring a brace and bagging the Man of the Match award in a 6-0 win v Moldova.

El Shaarawy started that game, and after that performance he should be in contention again for Italy’s upcoming Nations League fixtures – away to Poland on Sunday, then at home v Holland on Wednesday…

  • The weekend markets are up, and El Shaarawy catches the eye at 11/4 to score Anytime against Poland. He’s almost twice the price of Polish star man and match favourite, Robert Lewandowski

England at Wembley…

England to win the Most Corners is a long-running stats trends that I like to return to when the price is right…

I’ve gone through the last 38 England Internationals played at Wembley Stadium (back to the start of the 2012/13 season). To demonstrate just how strong this stats trend is:

Wins are in bold

England 3 Wales 0 – Corners = 6-3
England 7 Montenegro 0 – Corners = 7-3
England 4 Bulgaria 0 – Corners = 6-3
England 5 Czech Republic 0 – Corners = 3-2
England 2 Croatia 1 – Corners = 9-4
England 3 USA 0 – Corners = 3-3
England 1 Spain 2 – Corners = 4-1
England 2 Nigeria 1 – Corners = 7-3
England 1 Italy 1 – Corners = 8-3
England 0 Brazil 0 – Corners = 0-2
England 0 Germany 0 – Corners = 6-5
England 1 Slovenia 0 – Corners = 10-4
England 2 Slovakia 1 – Corners = 9-1
England 2 Lithuania 0 – Corners = 3-2
England 2 Spain 2 – Corners = 5-4
England 3 Scotland 0 – Corners = 4-3
England 2 Malta 0 – Corners = 8-1
England 1 Portugal 0 – Corners = 2-2
England 1 Holland 2 – Corners = 7-3
England 2 France 0 – Corners = 5-3
England 2 Estonia 0 – Corners = 10-3
England 2 Switzerland 0 – Corners = 3-8
England 4 Lithuania 0 – Corners = 8-1
England 3 Slovenia 1 – Corners = 9-2
England 5 San Marino 0 – Corners = 16-0
England 1 Norway 0 – Corners = 7-3
England 3 Peru 0 – Corners = 8-1
England 1 Denmark 0 – Corners = 11-3
England 0 Germany 1 – Corners = 11-6
England 0 Chile 2 – Corners = 11-1
England 2 Poland 0 – Corners = 17-4
England 4 Montenegro 1 – Corners = 14-0
England 4 Moldova 0 – Corners = 9-1
England 3 Scotland 2 – Corners = 8-3
England 1 Rep of Ireland 1 – Corners = 9-4
England 2 Brazil 1 – Corners = 7-2
England 5 San Marino 0 – Corners = 17-0
England 1 Ukraine 1 – Corners = 5-5

The numbers show:

  • 33 out of 38 home Most Corners win for England (87%)
  • 28 home Match Wins for England (74%)

In short – those stats tell us that England are more likely to win the Most Corners at Wembley than they are to win the game.

Take that statement into Sunday evening’s game with Belgium, and I’m much more interested in backing Gareth Southgate’s side to win the Corners Match Bet than I am for them to outscore the Belgians in front of goal…

The next two fixtures at Wembley are this one v Belgium on Sunday, followed by another Nations League round against Denmark on Wednesday.

The bookies are being very tentative/ slow in pricing up their Corners markets. We’ll have a look out for the Denmark game next week. As for the visit of Belgium, as I write, only 888 Sport, Unibet & 32RedSport (all the same firm essentially) are offering a Most Corners market.

Limited options then, but the 7/5 (2.4) for England does look a bit of value. And the evidence grows when we add in Belgium’s recent flag-kick form…

Belgium – Away:
Denmark 0 Belgium 2 – Corners = 7-4
Russia 1 Belgium 4 – Corners = 7-1

A further nugget of ammo for this one:

When England lost 1-0 to Belgium in the World Cup 2018 group stage, the corners score was 7-2 in favour of the Three Lions.

  • As well as 888 Sport, look out for firms such as Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, William Hill, and Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook offering a Most Corners or Corners Match Bet ahead of kick off on Sunday 

Fleetwood v Hull tonight…

Last but not least this weekend, let’s keep abreast of the early 2020/21 form in League One

Hull are 100%, played four & won four, with zero goals conceded. That makes them worth looking out for in this evening’s trip to Fleetwood, who have lost three in a row in the league.

In the Match Result market, the Away Win is 11/8 (2.38). Always searching for bigger alternatives, the admittedly small body of early-season results points to a low score-line in favour of the visitors:

  • All 4 of Hull’s games so far have been won 1-0 or 2-0

With that stat in mind – match-winning form, and clean sheets – Hull to Win & Under 2.5 Goals appeals as a 4/1 shot this evening (or cover the 1-0 and 2-0 Correct Scores).

Northampton v Peterborough always feels like a grudge match. These two don’t like each other much. Two contrasting ways to look at the form for Saturday’s game…

The Cobblers don’t do well against the Posh:

  • Northampton have lost 6 of their last 7 against Peterborough, with the other a draw

But… Posh have been hard to trust on the road for a while now:

  • Peterborough have won just 2 of their last 13 away games. Including 2 out of 2 away defeats in League One so far this season

I’m not keen on backing Northampton here. But I’m not taking Peterborough at odds-on at 4/5 (1.8) for the Away Win, either. Sometimes the research does its job by warning us off a bet, rather than leading us to one.

Today’s picks

UEFA Nations League

Poland v Italy
Sunday 7.45pm – Sky Sports Interactive

  • Anytime Scorer: Stephan El Shaarawy @ 11/4 (3.75) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 5/2 (3.5) Betway, 12/5 (3.4) Bet365, VBet, Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred 

England v Belgium
Sunday 5pm – Sky Sports

  • Most Corners: England @ 7/5 (2.4) with 888 Sport, Unibet & 32RedSport

League One

Fleetwood v Hull
TONIGHT 7.45pm – Sky Sports

  • Hull to Win & Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/1 (5.0) with Boylesports, Skybet, Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred

That’s all from me for this week. Remember you can keep tabs on all the latest league stats on our website. Head-2-Heads for this weekend’s League One & League Two fixtures are on there now.

I’ll be back next week with more analysis and advice for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues