Wednesday 14th October 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
We looked at three ‘low-key’ matches in the Nations League last night. It ended up a classic near-miss betting scenario – late goals taking out our picks, and ‘just one away’ from the payout…
Latvia and Malta were on course for a 0-0, until the away team grabbed the win with literally the last kick of the game (a header, to be precise). That goal coming in the 6th minute of ‘5’ added on after the 90.
Montenegro were surprised 1-2 at home by Luxembourg. The winning goal coming in the 86th minute. And San Marino – who don’t get to celebrate very often – got themselves a rare point, with a 0-0 draw in Liechtenstein.
All in all, then, two out of three on yesterday’s Under 2.5 Goals treble. And that late Malta goal put the scuppers on the 26/1 Match Result & Under 2.5 Goals combo, at the first hurdle.
Of course, other evenings, an injury-time winner will have us dancing round the living room (as when PSG struck late at 25/1 against Atalanta in the Champions League this summer).
That got me looking back over the picks in recent months. Since 1st July, a strike-rate of 25% might not seem that attractive in isolation. But take into account the odds we go for with those picks, and to level stakes that one-in-four record translates to a very healthy 35% ROI.
Lyndon Dykes (Scotland v Czech Republic)
We’ve spoken many times about players scoring goals a game or two after we initially flag them up. The latest case in point was Lyndon Dykes for Scotland last week. Drawing a blank as our First Goalscorer pick in the 0-0 v Israel. Only to pop up with the first (and only) goal of the game in a 1-0 win v Slovakia over the weekend.
Scotland are at home again this evening, this time v Czech Republic in the Nations League. The Scots won 2-1 in the away fixture last month, with Dykes getting his first International goal in that match.
The QPR forward – our 100/1 Each Way outside chance in the Championship this season – remains a player to follow at the current prices…
Dykes has scored in six of his last 10 games for club & country. Comparing that body of form to the latest Anytime Scorer prices, odds of 10/3 (4.33) and 9/4 (3.25) are underestimating his chances of scoring again tonight.
Stephan El Shaarawy (Italy v Netherlands)
El Shaarawy was a void bet for us at the weekend (didn’t play). If he gets back on the pitch for Italy tonight, then he’s certainly one to look out for to find the net at a decent price.
Netherlands, who have surprisingly failed to score in their last three games, are the visitors this evening.
El Shaarawy has scored in two of his last three International appearances. The 27-year-old Italian is 3/1 (4.0) and 11/4 (3.75) tonight.
Andrej Kramaric (Croatia v France)
Kramaric is one of those players labelled a ‘dud’ after a short spell in the Premier League – and now firing in the goals abroad…
The 29-year-old Croatian didn’t make much noise at Leicester City (four goals in 20 apps). But he’s been banging in the goals for Hoffenheim in Germany. He’s started the season on fire, and has scored a total of nine times across his last five games for club & country.
That five-game scoring streak includes a hat-trick in the Bundesliga against Cologne, a brace against Bayern Munich (who are reportedly after signing him now), and coming off the bench to net the winner for Croatia in a 2-1 win over Sweden on Sunday.
Priced around 13/5 (3.6) to score Anytime tonight, Kramaric is one to follow right now. Keep him in mind for Hoffenheim in the weeks ahead, too.
England v Denmark
Talking of repeat business, we should continue to follow England’s corner-winning form at Wembley…
Gareth Southgate’s side delivered on the Most Corners against Belgium at the weekend (7-5). That takes the Three Lions’ record for that bet up to a remarkable 34 from 39 games at the national stadium (87%).
In short, England land that corners bet at Wembley, more often than they win the game.
The home win v Denmark today is 8/11 (1.73). England for the Most Corners is also odds-on, at 2/5 (1.4) and 4/11 (1.36).
England -2 Corner Handicap is the option for us this time. Harry Kane & co have landed that bet – winning 3+ corners more than opponents – in seven of their last 10 Wembley outings.
UEFA Nations League
Live on Sky Sports, 7.45pm
Scotland v Czech Republic
Italy v Netherlands
Croatia v France
England v Denmark
I’ll be back between now and the weekend, when we’ll be turning our attention to the domestic leagues. And looking ahead to next week, with our Champions League preview. The Group stages start on Tuesday.
Enjoy the football…