Across the Leagues Betting Advice - Email Archive Content

Watch this video - if you can take the pain...

Thursday 4th March 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Two parts to your Across the Leagues service…
  • 5/1 Weghorst sends a penalty into the stands…
  • The big picture at 50/1…

Watch this video – if you can take the pain…

There are two parts to your Across the Leagues service.

One is the website. A veritable feast of bet-specific stats. Taking in 17 leagues, 300+ teams, and over 3,000 players…

The site contains at-a-glance stats and tables. And a Head-2-Head, home v away match comparison tool.

The site was designed to help you to identify standout stats, trends, and bet opportunities, across a range of categories and betting markets…

From Match Result form, Under/ Over 2.5 Goals, Win to Nil, Clean Sheets, and Both Teams to Score. To Corners, Cards, and First & Anytime Scorers. We’ve got Referee rankings tables for each division, too.

In upcoming Across the Leagues emails, I’ll be focusing on different areas of the site. Pulling out key stats like, who is the top team in the Premier League for Most Corners bets? Or, which player in Serie A produces the most First Goalscorer payouts?

You can access all our stats on the site at any time by logging-in with your email address and personal password:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

For example, there are three Premier League games taking place this evening. And you can view Head-2-Head comparisons for each of them:

Head-2-Head - Premier League

So, that’s part one the service. A dedicated website, jam-packed with bet-specific information. Covering literally hundreds of games every month.

Part two of Across the Leagues comes from your truly. Throughout each week, as well as alerting you to standout stats and trends on the site. I also email you, with my own research, analysis, betting opinions and picks…

This can be anything from a piece of betting value I’ve spotted in the matchday markets, such as a Scorer bet available at an industry-best price with a certain bookmaker…

To an in-depth article, taking a deep-dive into the stats. Branching out into a topic such as the historical evidence for the FA Cup producing a surprise finalist. Or the ‘consistency of randomness’ in the 10-season patterns for Half Time/ Full Time turnarounds in the Premier League.

As outlined on the About the Service page on the website, my own betting approach leans toward the larger end of the odds spectrum. Which is going to mean more losers than winners. But some absolutely fantastic nights when the good times come. And this requires taking a long-term approach.

Today seems like a good time to discuss all this, after what happened last night…

“He’s skyed it…”

Yesterday I produced a write-up for the German Cup quarter final between RB Leipzig and Wolfsburg. Flagging up the away side’s underdog chances, and Wolfsburg top scorer Wout Weghorst as a 5/1 selection for First Goalscorer…

Well, in the 26th minute, with the score at 0-0, Weghorst had the perfect opportunity to land those odds. A penalty kick, no less. But he skyed it – bigtime. Slipping over quite spectacularly, not unlike David Beckham did for England once upon a time.

If you can handle the pain of watching back the moment that 5/1 payout was snatched from your clutches, you can do so here. The Weghorst penalty incident comes at just after one minute.

And for comparison, here’s Mr Beckham v Turkey, all those years ago.

We can’t control what happens on the pitch. Weghorst had pretty much the best opportunity you can ask for to land a scorer bet. If that’s goes in, it’s a 5/1 payout, and Wolfsburg are 1-0 up.

And just to pile on the pain, my scorer pick Ciro Immobile also missed a penalty for Lazio last weekend.

What’s next – a heartbreak hat-trick, or third time lucky?

One thing’s for sure. I’ll keep on looking for value…

The big picture…

While matchday moments like that will crop up in our week-to-week coverage. A key part of my Across the Leagues analysis involves the ante post, season-long markets…

A handful of cases in point to mention today, in the 2020/21 bet book:

Callum Hendry @ 125/1…

At the start of the season, I flagged up Callum Hendry’s long-shot chances as a huge-price outsider for Top Goalscorer in the Scottish Premiership.

After a breakthrough campaign for St Johnstone in 2019/20, it’s fair to say this season hasn’t gone to plan for Callum: no goals in his first 16 league appearances.

That bet is dead. But there’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon…

Hendry was a late January transfer-window loan signing for Aberdeen. So far, he’s got one goal for his new club. And as these stats suggest, Callum can yet come good as a regular scoring threat in the Scottish Premiership. It could pay to keep him on the radar for next season.

Morecambe @ 50/1…

I highlighted Morecambe in League Two at 50/1 on 18th January, with the bookies going 1/4th odds Each Way for 1-3 places. At that point, Carlisle were the 5/2 (3.5) favourites in the Outright Winner market. Carlisle have since drifted out to 14/1…

After a 3-1 win on Tuesday night, our team Morecambe are now 25/1 in general, and 33/1 with BetVictor. With the place terms now generally trimmed to 1/5th the odds for a Top 3 finish.

In the Promotion betting, the Shrimps are now 10/3 (4.33), from a top price of 9/1 (10.0) when highlighted in January.

Morecambe currently sit 5th, two points off the Top 3 spots for automatic promotion, and just four points behind the leaders.

Eoin Doyle @ 33/1…

In the League Two Top Goalscorer market, our man is Eoin Doyle at 33/1 Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places). The Bolton striker scored again in midweek, and is now up to 13 goals for the season. That tally puts him just one goal away from the Top 4 places. And the bookies are now betting Win Only.

FA Cup outsiders at 28/1 and 66/1…

The FA Cup quarter finals are coming up this month. Our two Across the Leagues teams are in the last eight and therefore, in contention…

Sheffield United (66/1) and Southampton (28/1) are having a tough time of it in the Premier League. But as pointed out when adding the Blades to the book after Christmas, when it comes to a relegation-threatened side putting together a cup run – it’s been done before…

Good to remember…

With exciting 50/1 and 66/1 bets like Morecambe and Sheff Utd in the book, a 5/1 slipped-and-missed-it penalty kick becomes easier to deal with. It’s all about perspective.

The key is always to make sure we have price on our side. Weghorst was 5/1 (6.0) last night. The bookmakers have already installed him as shorter than that to score the First goal in this weekend’s Bundesliga match at Hoffenheim. He’s 10/3 (4.33) in general. We can’t control what happens on the pitch. But we can control what prices we take.

I’ll be back in your inbox on Friday afternoon, ready for the weekend action. And remember, your members-only website is live and fully-loaded with stats for every game across 17 different leagues – including tonight’s Premier League fixtures.

See you tomorrow.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues