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Weekend picks & analysis - including Salford tonight...

Friday 13th November 2020

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Two ways to back Vidal tonight…
  • Bolton v Salford on TV…
  • Peterborough leading the way…

Weekend picks & analysis – including Salford tonight…

Last night’s Euro 2020 Playoffs were every bit as tight and tense as we expected…

Three of the four ties went Under 2.5 Goals, including the games we focused on featuring Northern Ireland and Scotland.

And three of the four matches also saw goals scored after the 87th minute of normal time…

Northern Ireland equalised late against Slovakia, eventually beaten 1-2 in extra time. Scotland were pegged back to 1-1 in Serbia, before taking the glory in a penalty shootout. And Hungary scored two very late goals to come from a goal down and break Iceland’s hearts, 2-1.

Tears of joy for Christie…

Ryan Christie’s magic left foot got Scotland’s goal, landing odds of 5/1 and 4/1 in the Anytime Scorer market. The 25-year-old gave an emotional interview after the match. I’m not Scottish, but it was nice to see how much it means. Christie is a player we should keep on the radar, especially when odds like those are available.

  • Ryan Christie has now found the net in 8 out of 22 appearances in all competitions for club & country this season (36%)

Backed at similar prices to Christie last night, Slovakia captain didn’t Marek Hamsik didn’t get on the scoresheet this time. He won’t mind though, as the 33-year-old helped guide his country to the Euro 2020 finals next summer…

Slovakia play Scotland in the Nations League on Sunday afternoon. It’ll be interesting to see the starting line-ups for that one…

With both teams achieving dramatic, energy-sapping playoff victories last night. I’m not saying they’ll all have hangovers… but they might not have their heads fully screwed back on come the weekend.

England do it again…

Meanwhile, in Thursday night’s Friendly at Wembley, England beat Republic of Ireland, 3-0. And kept up their dominant home corner-winning form, with a 12-2 corners tally…

Updating my standout stat for the Three Lions:

  • England have now won the Most Corners in 35 of their last 41 games at Wembley Stadium (85%)

Next up for Gareth Southgate’s squad, a trip to Belgium in the Nations League this weekend. With the next Wembley match scheduled to be v Iceland next Wednesday. As it stands, the FA has given the green light for that match to go ahead (with Iceland given special travel measures).

We’ll see what size Corner Handicap the bookies give England ahead of that game on Wednesday.

Two ways to back Vidal tonight…

In our Monday Report we noted that Inter Milan’s combative midfielder Arturo Vidal has been prolific in the disciplinary stats again of late, receiving yellow cards in three out of five starts in Italy in Serie A.

Vidal’s form also very much carries over when he’s on International duty for Chile

Tonight (11pm), Chile face Peru in a South American Qualifying match for World Cup 2022:

  • Arturo Vidal has scored and/ or been booked in 4 of his last 5 apps for Chile, and in 6 of his last 9

In two of those games, the 33-year-old found the net AND picked up a yellow card.

The Anytime Scorer market is easy to come by for tonight’s game. As I write, Vidal to score is around 5/2 (3.5) in general, and a top price 10/3 (4.33) with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook. He’s on penalty-taking duties for Chile, too, and that makes him particularly worthy of consideration.

‘Player to be Carded’ prices are harder to come by. I’ve spent some time hunting around various bookie websites today…

The only option I can see is with 888 Sport (and Unibet & 32RedSport, who all share the same sportsbook). They’ve got Vidal at 11/5 (3.2) to get a card tonight, and considering his recent record, that’s a plenty decent enough price to take, if you can get it.

At those prices, taking the Anytime Scorer and To Be Shown a Card route would return an overall profit if Vidal delivers on one of those two outcomes tonight.

Bolton v Salford on Sky Sports…

Sticking with the Friday-night football, League Two followers get a rare TV game this evening, with Bolton v Salford on Sky Sports (7.45pm)…

I’m no team-news expert, but apparently Bolton striker Eoin Doyle is due back from injury soon, if not tonight. Doyle was top scorer in League Two last season, bagging 25 goals. Struggling Bolton signed him from Swindon over the summer.

So far, the Irishman has scored two goals in eight league games for Wanderers. Doyle started the season as the 6/1 favourite to be League Two Top Goalscorer in 2020/21. That price has now drifted to 33/1 & 40/1. When he’s back playing again, Eoin Doyle will be one to look out for.

This game also catches my eye for the Most Corners stats…

The League Two tables on our website show that Bolton have only managed to win the Most Corners in one of their six home games so far. While Salford have landed that bet in three of their four away games.

Taking a look at the home v away figures displayed on our site in the Head-2-Head tool for this game, Bolton’s average corners margin at home is in the negative, at -2.2. Salford’s is in the positive, averaging 2.0 corners per away game more than opponents.

With this evening’s match live on TV, we get a full quota of stats markets from the bookmakers. Salford for the Most Corners at 23/20 (2.15) looks good to me.

Peterborough leading the way in League One…

Last but not least, my weekend analysis takes me to League One, where leaders Peterborough can be backed at odds-against to win at 18th place Crewe on Saturday…

  • Peterborough are unbeaten in 11 games in all comps, and have won 7 of their last 8 in the league

Crewe have lost three in a row in League One, and four of their last five.

This will be both teams’ first league match since Tuesday 3rd November. Since then, there has been cup action, including Peterborough winning 2-1 at fellow League One side Oxford in the FA Cup.

Darren Ferguson’s side are the form pick for another win here, at 6/5 (2.2).

As I stated above, I’m no team-news specialist. But League Two top scorer this season, Jonson Clarke-Harris can be expected back in the starting XI for Peterborough this weekend…

  • Jonson Clarke-Harris has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 4 of his last 5 league games for Peterborough

A £1.2 million summer signing from Bristol Rovers, Clarke-Harris was rested for Peterborough’s midweek EFL Trophy trip to Cambridge, and came off the bench for the last 15 minutes at Oxford in the FA Cup last Saturday.

The 26-year-old striker is the man to back this weekend, with league duties resuming. He’s an appealing 13/8 (2.63) to score.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my selections for the weekend…

Chile v Peru

World Cup Qualifying, South America
11pm

  • Anytime Scorer: Arturo Vidal @ 10/3 (4.33) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 5/2 (3.5) in general
  • To get a Card: Arturo Vidal @ 11/5 (3.2) with 888 Sport, Unibet & 32RedSport

Bolton v Salford

League Two
7.45pm – Sky Sports

  • Most Corners: Salford @ 23/20 (2.15) with Betway, Boylesports, 11/10 (2.1) Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Evens (2.0) Skybet

Crewe v Peterborough

League One
Saturday 3pm

  • Peterborough to win @ 6/5 (2.20) with Betway, William Hill, Boylesports, BetVictor, 23/20 (2.15) Bet365, Skybet, 11/10 (2.1) in general
  • Anytime Scorer: Jonson Clarke-Harris @ 13/8 (2.63) with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/4 (2.5) Betway, 7/5 (2.4) Skybet, BetVictor

I’ll be back next week with more stats, analysis and advice for you.

Have a good weekend. And enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues