Wednesday 23rd December 2020
In Across the Leagues today:
The 2020/21 football season continues to throw up plenty of surprise results and score-lines. And in betting, surprises mean big prices…
Last weekend in the Premier League, Liverpool won 7-0, and Man Utd won 6-2. In the Correct Score markets, those outcomes were 350/1 and 100/1, respectively.
In Italy last night, Serie A champions Juventus lost 0-3 at home v Fiorentina. The Match Result was an 8/1 away-day upset. The 3-0 Fiorentina Correct Score was 200/1.
On our own quest for big-price opportunities, you and I have recently been looking in particular at the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) and Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) markets…
I’ll refer you to this week’s Monday Report email, which contains a reminder to look out for 25/1 HT/ FT turnarounds in the Premier League this Christmas.
See below for my latest Win & BTTS contenders in the English Football League (EFL) this coming weekend.
During this week, our pre-Christmas prep-work has also taken in Corners and Cards stats in the Premier League…
On Tuesday, we focused on the best and worst behaved teams in the top-flight, in relation to Yellow & Red Cards, Under/ Over 3.5 Cards bets, and Most Bookings in the game. Catch up on that analysis here.
Here’s my take on the Christmas weekend prices, standout stats, and opportunities…
The festive football kicks off on Saturday afternoon, with a stack of Premier League & EFL fixtures on the Boxing Day schedule.
That includes these two matches, which both catch my eye in the stats markets:
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace (Sat 3pm – BBC One)
Boxing Day entertainment from Villa Park here, live on the BBC. As we’ve noted recently, Aston Villa are top dogs in the Premier League for Most Corners bets this season:
Palace, on the other hand, have only managed to win the Most Corners in 2 out of 7 away trips.
Villa for the Most Corners is odds-on, 1/3 (1.33) at best with BetVictor.
For a more appealing price, the Villa -3 Corner Handicap has paid out in 7 of their last 9 league games overall. That option is available at 5/4 (2.25) with Bet365 and BetVictor, and pays out if Villa win 4+ corners more than Palace.
Check also for Corner Handicap markets with Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, Marathonbet.
Fulham v Southampton (Sat 3pm – Sky Sports)
On to the Cards & Booking Points stats now, and Fulham are joint-top in the Premier League when it comes to receiving the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in games:
In comparison, Southampton have only delivered in that market on one of their 7 away outings this season (14%).
Overall, the Cottagers have landed this bet in 5 of their last 6 games. Fulham for the Most Booking Points is a standout 6/4 (2.5) with William Hill.
Other bookies for that option include Bet365 (0 Card Handicap), and 888 Sport (Most Cards). Skybet, Boylesports, and Betway are also worth checking with on Saturday or before.
Here are my Boxing Day contenders for Win & Both Teams to Score in the EFL. Taking the lead from the new Win & BTTS tables on our website:
Watford v Norwich (Championship – Sat, 7.45pm)
Norwich to Win & Both Teams to Score is 9/2 (5.5).
Doncaster Rovers v Accrington Stanley (League One, Sat 3pm)
Doncaster to Win & Both Teams to Score is 3/1 (4.0).
Oldham v Harrogate (League Two, Sat 3pm)
Oldham to Win & Both Teams to Score is 10/3 (4.33) and 3/1 (4.0).
Take your pick…
As ever, my advice with these selections is to pick & choose, however you prefer – Singles, Doubles, Trebles, Patents, and any manner of combinations…
I’m going for my usual three-markets approach. So far, this ‘Rule of Three’ tactic has delivered an overall profit in five out of seven attempts.
Norwich, Doncaster & Oldham:
Match Win treble pays 10/1.
Both Teams to Score treble pays 9/2 and 4/1+.
Win & BTTS treble pays 101/1, 94/1 and 87/1+.
From the analysis above, here are my picks for this weekend…
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Fulham v Southampton
EFL: 3 games listed above
I’ll be back on Tuesday, 29th December. When we’ll be focusing on the Premier League & EFL action taking place midweek.
Until then, let me take this chance to wish you a very Merry Christmas.
Enjoy the football…