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Weekend Preview - 28/1 angle for Wolves v Leeds tonight...

Friday 19th February 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Wolves v Leeds tonight…
  • Cards pick for the Merseyside derby…
  • 7/1 Bet Builder for AC Milan v Inter Milan…

Weekend Preview – 28/1 angle for Wolves v Leeds tonight…

One area where we’re taking the long-term approach, and looking to land one or two big winners over the course of the season, is the Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) market…

Next month, we’ll be looking to identify a game or two for a half time-full time scoreboard reversal in the Champions League 2nd Legs.

In the Premier League, I’ve been tracking the HT/ FT flip-flops this season. Noting at all times, that the English top-flight is running below the 10-season average of 4.16% of games producing these big-odds turnarounds…

HT/ FT angles…

So far in 2020/21, there have been 237 Premier League matches. And six of them have delivered a HT/ FT comeback. That’s a 2.53% average.

Those turnarounds were:

29th Nov: Southampton 2 Man Utd 3 (HT: 2-0) @ 22/1

5th Dec: West Ham 1 Man Utd 3 (HT: 1-0) @ 25/1

16th Jan: Wolves 2 West Brom 3 (HT: 2-1) @ 50/1

27th Jan: Burnley 3 Aston Villa 2 (HT: 0-1) @ 33/1

2nd Feb: Sheff Utd 2 West Brom 1 (HT: 0-1) @ 28/1

14th Feb: Southampton 1 Wolves 2 (HT: 1-0) @ 33/1

Southampton, Man Utd and West Brom have featured twice in those HT/ FT outcomes. This weekend, Southampton host Chelsea, West Brom go to Burnley, and Man Utd welcome Newcastle.

Wolves v Leeds tonight…

One team that could be a contender to add a big HT/ FT to that list at some stage are Leeds Utd. The Premier League new-boys certainly play some entertaining football, and have been involved in some madcap score-lines…

  • Marcelo Bielsa’s team have won 4-3, and lost 4-3. Lost 4-1 twice. Won 5-2, and lost 6-2. Won 5-0, and lost 4-2

With results like that, it comes as something as a surprise that Leeds are yet to contribute to a Half Time/ Full Time turnaround.

Going into tonight’s game at Wolves, it’s interesting to note that both sides have a strong record for recovering points from losing positions

Man Utd are out in front with 22 pts salvaged after going behind in games this season. Wolves are joint-2nd with Leicester, with 12 pts earned from losing positions. Followed by Leeds and Liverpool, on 10 pts.

Indeed, just last weekend, Wolves came from a goal down at the break to win 2-1 at Southampton. And on 2nd Feb, the men in black & gold conceded first at home v Arsenal, before coming back to win, 2-1 (equalising on the stroke of half time).

Leeds’ last three away games have ended 4-2 (L), 1-3 (W), and 1-2 (W). Again, suggesting potential for both teams to get on the scoreboard, and open the game up…

Tonight’s trip to Molineux is on my radar for the speculative HT/ FT angle, with the two scoreboard reversals – HT Leeds/ FT Wolves, and vice versa – available at 28/1 and 30/1.

Speculative being the word here. In the last two years, I’ve put up a total of 22 picks for a Half Time/ Full Time comeback, across 12 different matches. Those 22 selections have given three payouts, at odds of 25/1, 25/1, and 28/1. For an overall ROI of 268% to level stakes. So, it’s very much a long-term game, for long-term gains.

Derby-day pointers…

There are some big derby matches taking place this weekend. Here are a few stats & history-book pointers for you…

Liverpool v Everton

Premier League – Sat 5.30pm, Sky Sports

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 23 meetings with Everton is all competitions. Although 12 of those have been draws
  • On the discipline front, Liverpool have received the Most Cards or Booking Points in just one of the last 14 Merseyside derbies. Betway are the top price for Everton to get the Most Cards in Saturday’s game, at 11/10 (2.1)

Richarlison is a player to look out for here. The Brazilian was Sent Off in the 2-2 draw v Liverpool at Goodison Park earlier this season. And since then, he’s picked up Yellow Cards against Chelsea, Tottenham, and Man City – with the last two coming in the past nine days….

Richarlison is a top-price 7/2 (4.5) To Be Booked.

AC Milan v Inter Milan

Italy, Serie A – Sun 2pm, Premier Sports

This is a huge game in Italy, with Inter one point ahead of Milan at the top of the league. These two met in the Coppa Italia last month, with three familiar themes all on show…

  • Over 5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these clubs in all comps
  • Romelu Lukaku has scored in each of his last 4 appearances v AC Milan, and in 4 of his last 8 games for Inter
  • Zlatan Ibrahimovic has scored in each of his last 3 v Inter, and in 5 of his last 10 apps for Milan

Those three events have all occurred in 3 out of 3 Milan derbies played since February last year: Over 5 Cards, and Lukaku & Ibrahimovic both scoring…

Last month in the Coppa Italia, Across the Leagues member Lee landed himself a combo winner on that trio, using Bet365’s Bet Builder feature. This weekend, it’s a 7/1 shot:

Bet365 Bet Builder

Schalke v Borussia Dortmund

Germany, Bundesliga – Sat 5.30pm, BT Sport

If you don’t mind short prices, that man Erling Braut Haaland is the one to follow in the Scorer markets in this local rivalry…

  • 20-year-old goal machine Haaland has scored in 2 out of 2 previous Revierderby appearances against bottom-of-the-league Schalke. And in 4 of his last 6 games overall

The Norwegian hot property is very short in the betting here. At just 2/5 (1.4) to score Anytime, and no better than 9/5 (2.8) to score First (Skybet).

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for the weekend…

Wolves v Leeds:

  • Half Time/ Full Time: Wolves/ Leeds @ 30/1 with BetVictor, 28/1 in general 
  • Half Time/ Full Time: Leeds/ Wolves @ 28/1 with Bet365, 25/1 in general

Liverpool v Everton:

  • To Be Booked: Richarlison @ 7/2 (4.5) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 10/3 (4.33) BetVictor (To Be Carded)

Player Cards markets also available with firms including Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, Unibet, Betfred.

AC Milan v Inter Milan:

  • Bet Builder: Over 5 Cards, Romelu Lukaku to Score Anytime & Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Score Anytime @ 7/1 with Bet365

‘Bet Builder’ options also available with bookies including Betway and Unibet.

I’ll be back on Monday with a stats update, and a look at the ‘A23/ M23 derby’ between Brighton and Crystal Palace. Then on Tuesday & Wednesday, we’ll be focusing on the next wave of Champions League 1st Leg ties, including Atletico Madrid v Chelsea.

Have a good weekend. And enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues