Thursday 29th September 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• 7/1 super-sub in Spain…
• Standout stats and match-ups…
• Champions League next week…

Weekend Preview – 3 standout Goals match-ups…

I’m going to be away from my desk on Friday, so we’re going in early with the weekend preview…

7/1 super-sub angle in Spain…

In last week’s analysis we looked at the contractual reasons behind on-loan forward Antoine Griezmann’s spate of substitute appearances for Atletico Madrid. Basically, the more minutes he plays, the more money Atletico will have to pay Barcelona.

• All 3 of Griezmann’s goals this season have come from the bench, and paid out on Last Goalscorer

On Saturday evening, Atletico are away at Sevilla. It just so happens that, having played eight games in all competitions so far this term, Sevilla have scored the last goal of the game on just one occasion…

If this angle pans out as planned, then the scenario is as follows: Griezmann comes off the bench around the hour mark, as he has done in seven out of eight club games this season – and bags the last goal of the game. Odds of 7/1 make this angle one to follow. Read more on the Griezmann situation here.

Can Sunderland end Preston’s low-goal streak…?

Last time out we successfully backed Preston for Under 2.5 Goals – a bet that has now paid out in all 10 of their Championship games, making it one of the most eye-catching trends in the English Football League right now.

Could Sunderland be the team to scramble that statistic this weekend? While North End are the lowest scorers in the division, the Black Cats have delivered six out of 10 payouts for Over 2.5 Goals so far, with their two most recent matches ending 2-2 and 0-3 on the road, and another 3-0 win in their last game at the Stadium of Light.

I love a 100% trend, but the odds-on prices for Under 2.5 Goals don’t appeal to me at Sunderland this weekend. If Preston do continue to lock everything down in front of goal at both ends of the pitch, then we’ll likely get plenty more chances to bet on low-goals options, in games to come.

I’m following the stats elsewhere…

Three standout Goals match-ups this weekend…

West Ham v Wolves – Under 2.5 Goals

While I’m a little wary of the Sunderland side of the Under 2.5 Goals match-up for Preston, the Premier League trend identified in yesterday’s stats round-up ticks the home v away head-to-head for me…

• West Ham have delivered 6 out of 7 Under 2.5 Goals payouts so far, including 3 out of 3 at home

Visitors Wolves bring a convincing body of low-scoring form, too. The Black Country club have had five out of seven Under 2.5 results so far, with two out of three on their travels. Last season, Wolves were the top-rated away team in the Premier League for Under 2.5 Goals, with 74% of matches going Under (14 out of 19).

If you’re one for historical head-to-head form, then take note that both of last season’s meetings between these clubs paid out on Under 2.5 Goals, with a pair of respective 1-0 home wins for West Ham and Wolves. Odds of 8/11 (1.73) look fair enough here.

West Brom v Swansea – Both Teams to Score

As reported in Wednesday’s top trends list, West Brom have one of the standout stats in the Championship:

• West Brom are the no.1 team in the division for Both Teams to Score, with goals at both ends in 9 out of 10 games so far (90%)

On Saturday, Swansea travel to The Hawthorns. And they match-up well on the away stats:

• Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 3 of Swansea’s 4 away games

Last season, the Swans found the net twice in both encounters with the Baggies. Both Teams to Score is the call, available at 4/5+ (1.8+) in general.

Wycombe v Plymouth – Over 2.5 Goals

Wycombe gave us an Over 2.5 Goals payout last weekend, playing their part in a 3-1 defeat at Sheffield Wednesday. They’re going in again this Saturday…

• Wycombe are the no.1 team in League One for Over 2.5 Goals bets this season (70%)

• League leaders Plymouth have the best away record for this bet, with all 5 games paying out on Over 2.5 Goals (100%)

Plymouth have scored in all 10 league games so far, and in particular their last four on the road have produced some goal-heavy score-lines: 2-2, 2-3, 0-3, 5-1. Over 2.5 Goals is 5/6+ (1.83+).

View all our bet-specific stats for 17 leagues by logging-in at:

www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

TODAY’S PICKS

Sevilla v Atletico Madrid
Spain, La Liga – Sat 5.30pm, Premier Sports

• Last Goalscorer: Antoine Griezmann – best odds 7/1 Bet365, Boylesports

West Ham v Wolves
Premier League – Sat 5.30pm, Sky Sports

• Under 2.5 Goals – best odds 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, William Hill, Betfred, Unibet

West Brom v Swansea
Championship, Sat 3pm

• Both Teams to Score: Yes – best odds 17/20 (1.85) Betway, 5/6 (1.83) Bet365, 4/5 (1.8) Betfred and in general 

Wycombe v Plymouth
League One, Sat 3pm

• Over 2.5 Goals – best odds 19/20 (1.95) Unibet, 5/6+ (1.83+) in general

Have a good weekend. I’ll be back next week, including Champions League action on Tuesday & Wednesday.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues