Friday 13th September 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Super Sunday: Tottenham v Arsenal…
• Standout stats…
• Champions League next week…

Weekend Preview: 66/1 Bet Builder…

The Premier League is back this weekend, and we’re putting the stats to work on the North London derby…

Tottenham v Arsenal

Sunday 2pm, Sky Sports

Match odds:
Tottenham 2/1 (3.0) – Draw 13/5 (3.6) – Arsenal 13/10 (2.3)

You could argue that Arsenal are priced a little short for an away win here, especially with the suspended Declan Rice and injured Martin Odegaard missing from midfield. Then again, Tottenham have only managed one win in seven attempts against their local rivals. And as we always say, derby-day history does tend to count…

I’ve made this match the focus of my research this weekend. Here are my findings. Some key North London derby stats for you…

CORNERS:

• The home team has won the Most Corners in 19 of the last 23 meetings between Tottenham and Arsenal in all competitions. While the away side has landed the Corners Match Bet in just one of the last 10 encounters

• Spurs are the only team in the Premier League to have landed the Corners Match Bet (won Most Corners) in all 3 games so far in 2024/25. Arsenal have been out-cornered in their last 2 games (home v Brighton, away at Aston Villa)

GOALS:

• Both Teams to Score has paid out in 9 of last 12 league meetings 

• Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 8 of the last 10 instalments of the North London derby

• Tottenham were the no.1 team in the Premier League for Over 2.5 Goals payouts last season (79%), and 2nd for Both Teams to Score (71%)

CARDS:

• Tottenham have paid out for the Most Cards/ Most Booking Points in 7 of last 10 clashes. Could Sunday’s match be a case of derby-day meaning that current form goes out the window? Spurs haven't got the Most Cards in any of their 3 games so far in the new season, while Arsenal have landed that bet in 2 out of 3

• Defender Cristian Romero has been booked in 2 of his last 3 appearances against Arsenal. The same goes for Pape Sarr. While fellow midfielder Yves Bissouma has been booked in his last 2 starts against Arsenal (for Tottenham last season, and Brighton before that). He’s reported as a possible injury doubt for Sunday, though

• Romero, Sarr, and Bissouma were Spurs' most-carded men in the Premier League 2023/24. Closely followed by another midfielder, Rodrigo Bentancur, who has been carded in 2 out of 2 games so far this season (one from the bench)

SCORERS:

• Heung-Min Son has scored in 4 of his last 6 encounters with the Gunners, and in 6 out of 9, including home and away last season 

• Bukayo Saka also scored in both meetings last term, and has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 3 of his last 6 appearances against Spurs

• Son and Saka were top league scorers for their clubs in 2023/24

There are plenty of options there. And we can’t try and predict every outcome in the match (!). All told, I’ve got five selections for a Bet Builder, paying 66/1+…

BET BUILDER
Both Teams to Score: Yes
Most Corners (Corners Match Bet): Tottenham
Player to be Carded: Cristian Romero
Player to be Carded: Pape Sarr
Player to Score: Heung-Min Son

My thinking being…

The Most Corners trend is a noteworthy one, with Tottenham the pick here…

If you’d asked me to name a player to get a card before even consulting the stats, then I’d have said the fiery Argentinean, Romero. And I like the price for Sarr, with cards stats and form to his name, too.

While up front, Son remains the class act for Spurs (with all due respect to new signing, Dominic Solanke). Saka has strong credentials for Arsenal, but I do feel the Gunners have a spread-the-goals-around feel to them. Saka tends to play wide, and there are other men who may get closer to goal than him. Both Teams to Score covers us for an Arsenal goal, and is a headline stat for this fixture…

Here's how that Bet Builder looks at Paddy Power:

We’ll also play the four biggest-price selections as singles – see below.

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Tottenham v Arsenal

• Most Corners (or Corners Match Bet): Tottenham @ 6/4 (2.5) Skybet, Betfred, BetVictor, 7/5 (2.4) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 888 Sport, 13/10 (2.3) William Hill  

• Player to be Carded: Cristian Romero @ 39/20 (2.95) Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet, 15/8 (2.88) Bet365, 6/4 (2.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/8 (2.38) Betfred, William Hill

• Player to be Carded: Pape Sarr @ 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, 12/5 (3.4) Betfred, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet, 9/4 (3.25) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 21/10 (3.1) William Hill, 2/1 (3.0) BetVictor  

• Anytime Scorer: Heung-Min Son @ 23/10 (3.3) Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 15/8 (2.88) Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports

• Bet Builder: 5 legs as listed above @ 66/1+ Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Unibet, BetUK, BetMGM, LiveScoreBet  

Note: Bet Builders are also offered by the likes of Skybet (‘Build-A-Bet’), William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports, Betway. Available markets and options may vary by bookmaker.

Time-saver: where possible, the bookie links above go directly to the matches/ markets in question.

I’ll be back next week, ready for the start of the Champions League…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues