Friday 24th February 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Carabao Cup Final on Sunday…
• Stats to consider…
• 89/1 Bet Builder… 

Weekend Preview – EFL Cup Final Special…

I was bemoaning bad luck on Tuesday night, with 13/2 First Scorer pick Khvicha Kvaratskhelia missing a first-half penalty for Napoli. But the very next day, we had a bit of Champions League good fortune…

Swings and roundabouts…

Inter Milan striker Romelu Lukaku came off the bench with the score still at 0-0 – and landed the 5/1 First Scorer odds with the only goal of the game, in the 86th minute.

Thanks to J.B for emailing in with news of his midweek winners. Following the notes in Tuesday’s analysis, he backed a whole raft of successful Scorer bets:

“Hi Oliver. Good news is the 2 men mentioned Langstaff and Mullin, I backed them both … as well as my normal £10 stake for anytime scorer I usually put a few quid on first and last scorer bets. Langstaff was 10/3 first so had £3 on him. Mullin was 5/2 for both first and last scorer. Had £2 on each and he was the only scorer in his match. So I was happy with the result. Hope it makes you feel a bit better knowing some of your members made a profit from your picks”

Thanks J.B.

Jose keeps our UEFA mega-acca alive…

Thursday evening saw the first batch of Europa League knockout ties completed. And there was a good result for Roma, who overturned a 1st leg deficit to beat RB Salzburg, 2-1 on aggregate. Jose Mourinho’s side are one leg of our self-styled UEFA cup competitions ‘mega acca’ this season…

With Roma in the book from back in September for the Europa League. Making up a small-stakes, big-odds Trixie. Alongside Manchester City for the Champions League, and Villarreal for the Europa Conference League.

That wild – but not impossible – treble was 419/1 and 300/1+ when we got on at the start of the campaign. If you joined Across the Leagues for the World Cup or since then, that UEFA cup-winner combo can still be backed at over 200/1 with the likes of Betfred and Betway. Get involved (and read the original advice in full here).

Spring-time fun on the horizon…

Talking of scoreboard turnarounds, Manchester United staged a second-half comeback against Barcelona last night, coming from a goal down at the break to win, 2-1…

In the pre-match Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT Double Result) market, Barcelona/ Man Utd was a 25/1 shot. A reminder there to look out for HT/ FT comebacks and late drama in next month's upcoming Champions League 2nd legs.

EFL Cup Final…

The league cup sometimes gets poked fun at. I can admit to myself having the odd chuckle in the pub when reeling off all the previous names and sponsors of this competition, which is never going to hold the same prestige as the FA Cup…

Rumbelows Cup, Coca-Cola Cup, Carling Cup, Milk Cup, Carabao Cup (what is it with the drinks brands?)… whichever incarnation is the favourite, it’s all the same thing to the clubs involved when it gets down to the final: silverware guarantees you a place in the history books. And both clubs in this year’s EFL Cup Final feel themselves long overdue in the trophy-winning department…

Manchester United v Newcastle United

EFL Cup Final, Wembley Stadium
Sunday 4.30pm, Sky Sports

Let’s take a look at some form and stats that might help us snag a big price at Wembley this weekend…

Trends from recent EFL Cup Finals:

• 3 of the last 4 Finals: Under 2.5 Goals, including two 0-0 draws & penalty shootouts

• 6 of the last 8 Finals: Over 3.5 Cards in Normal Time (Extra Time doesn’t count for pre-match Cards/ Bookings bets)

Man Utd and Newcastle stats:

• Last two Premier League meetings between Man Utd and Newcastle: draws. 0-0 at Old Trafford this season, and 1-1 at St James’ Park last season

• Newcastle in 2022/23: draw specialists – 11 draws from 23 games (48%). Highest draw rate in the Premier League

• Each of the last 8 league meetings between these clubs: Under 10.5 Corners

• Bruno Fernandes is one of 5 Man Utd players with 5 Yellow Cards in the league this season (the others being Casemiro, Dalot, Fred, McTominay). Bruno has been booked in 3 of the last 4 meetings with Newcastle. And he saw yellow in the Europa League game against Barcelona on Thursday night

• Joelinton is not only Newcastle’s most-carded player with 9 Yellow Cards, he’s also the joint most-carded man in the Premier League this season. Joelinton has been booked in 2 of his last 3 games in a Newcastle shirt, and in 2 of his last 4 appearances against Man Utd

The man in black…

A note on the appointed Referee for this game, too. The FA had to step in to quash a bit of online ‘fake news,’ after some Newcastle fans suggested that Sunday’s ref, David Coote, was a Man Utd fan. The official word: he supports Notts County.

Man Utd manager Erik ten Hag has stirred thing up a little, too. Complaining about Newcastle’s alleged time-wasting in their last meeting. Not exactly headline news, but a little bit of ammo to add to the Referee/ Cards angle for Sunday’s final, with our potential bets in mind.

• This will be a first major final for referee David Coote. He took charge of the League One Playoff Final back in 2014, showing 6 Yellow Cards in Normal Time

• Bets on Over 3.5 Cards and Over 4.5 Cards have paid out in 4 of Coote’s last 6 games. Including 9 Yellows in the Premier League match between Chelsea and Southampton last weekend. The Premier League Referee stats on our website have Coote averaging 3.8 Total Cards per game

Bet Builder selections…

Taking all of the above into account to compile a five-legged Bet Builder for Sunday’s cup final, this combo pays a spicy 89/1 with Paddy Power:

Draw
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards
Player Shown a Card: Bruno Fernandes
Player Shown a Card: Joelinton

I also like this more modest, three-legged selection – which could give us a good 90-minutes run at odds of 22/5 (5.4) with Unibet:

Under 2.5 Goals
Under 10.5 Corners
Over 3.5 Cards

TODAY’S PICKS

Man Utd v Newcastle

Bet Builders – as listed above:

• Five-leg Bet Builder @ 89/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 75/1 Unibet

• Three-leg Bet Builder @ 22/5 (5.4) Unibet, 10/3 (4.33) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Bet Builder coupons are also available with the likes of Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor.

Enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues