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Weekend Preview - FA Cup, and a 91/1 shot...

Friday 22nd January 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Ronnie’s record…
  • FA Cup 4th round…
  • Win & Both Teams to Score contenders… 

Weekend Preview – FA Cup, and a 91/1 shot…

When I said that Leicester City’s 25/1 price for the Premier League wasn’t likely to change much until the next round of games. I didn’t foresee the bookies swiping so many ticks off the Leicester odds in the event of a Liverpool defeat…

Burnley were 10/1 winners at Anfield last night. One of the knock-ons of that victory at the home of the reigning champions has been Leicester’s quote for the title, trimmed from 25/1 back down to 20/1. And as short as 16/1 and 14/1.

There will be plenty more twists and turns to come, for sure. We’re only halfway through the season.

Yesterday I asked for your opinion on Leicester to win the league, posing the question – is this a bandwagon bet, or a bargain?.

We’ve had some great email responses in already. I’ll report back next week.

12-0 to Liverpool…

Liverpool are now four Premier League games without scoring. It’s not for the want of trying, though. These stats show that while the drought continues, in particular, the Reds are a team to follow when it comes to bossing the Corners stats:

Liverpool 0 Burnley 1
Shots = 27-6
Corners = 12-0

Liverpool 0 Man Utd
Shots = 18-8
Corners = 7-3

Southampton 1 Liverpool 0
Shots = 7-16
Corners = 1-10

Newcastle 0 Liverpool 0
Shots = 8-11
Corners = 5-12

Last night, the bookmakers had the Corner Handicap line at Liverpool -5, requiring Jurgen Klopp’s men to win 6+ corners more than Burnley. The corners score ended 12-0.

For most teams, a -5 Corner Handicap is a high line. But those recent results show that the Reds are a contender to cover that kind of target right now.

The Premier League stats on our website show that Liverpool are the No.1 team in the division for Most Corners payouts this season:

Premier League Corners Stats

Ronnie’s record…

Cristiano Ronaldo breaks records for fun. This week he may have become the highest scoring player of all time

It’s shame that the history books only count players that have ‘played at the highest level.’ As in my five-a-side days down at the local sports centre, I reckon I might have already surpassed Ronnie’s 760-goal tally.

Ronaldo goes for career goal No.761 this weekend. The Juventus star is 8/13 (1.62) at best to score against Bologna in Serie A on Sunday. That price is with Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes & Coral.

German super-subs…

Super-subs are a tricky proposition when it comes to betting. Back a known substitute in the Anytime Scorer market, and you risk him only coming on for the last two minutes, and blowing your stakes.

Last Goalscorer is an option though, as well as Next Goalscorer if you’re happy to get involved, in-play…

Three men have been catching the eye from the bench in the Bundesliga recently:

  • Andrej Kramaric has scored in 5 of his last 13 appearances for Hoffenheim – and 2 of those have come from the bench
  • Luka Jovic – as we noted midweek – has just returned to Eintracht Frankfurt, on loan from Real Madrid. He’s come on as a second-half sub twice, and scored a brace on his first appearance last weekend
  • Nils Petersen has come on as a second-half substitute in 6 games in a row for Freiburg – and scored 3 times. Each within 10 minutes of getting on the pitch 

FA Cup 4th round…

The FA Cup 4th round takes place this weekend. Last season, eight of the 16 ties featured a lower-tier club taking on a Premier League side. With three of those producing a shock of sorts on the day:

Shrewsbury 2 Liverpool 2 (Liverpool won the replay, 1-0)
Newcastle 0 Oxford Utd 0 (Newcastle won the reply, 3-2 AET)
West Ham 0 West Brom 1

Those could be of encouragement if you fancy hunting for banana skins this weekend…

There are no replays this season, so all of the 4th round ties will be settled on the day. With extra time and penalties, if needed.

There are nine fixtures that match a lower-league side against a top-flight outfit:

Chorley v Wolves
West Ham v Doncaster Rovers
Sheffield United v Plymouth
Cheltenham v Man City
Brighton v Blackpool
Everton v Sheffield Wednesday
Chelsea v Luton
Brentford v Leicester
Wycombe v Tottenham

Brentford and Leicester also met at this stage last season, with the Premier League side edging it, 1-0.

One match where we won’t be wanting to see an upset is Sheffield United v Plymouth. The Blades are one of the two Each Way outsiders I’ve flagged up in my FA Cup Outright Winner previews this season:

  • And Southampton at 28/1 & 25/1. The Saints play Arsenal in an all-Premier League clash on Saturday lunchtime (12.15pm, BT Sport)

Win & Both Teams to Score contenders…

As well as the FA Cup, there’s also a good set of fixtures in the English Football League (EFL) this weekend.

With the eyes on landing a big prize this season, I’ve got three more matches in my sights for the Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) markets.

These are all 3pm kick-offs on Saturday afternoon. So, if you’re following me in, settle down on the sofa with Jeff Stelling and the boys on Sky Sports, and cheer on those goals as they go in…

Ipswich v Peterborough (League One)

  • Peterborough are joint-2nd in our League One chart for Win & BTTS. Four of their last 5 games have paid out on Both Teams to Score, and 2 of their last 3 wins have delivered for Win & BTTS. Ipswich have lost 4 of their last 5 home games

Peterborough to Win & Both Teams to Score is 15/4 (4.75).

Crewe v AFC Wimbledon (League One)

  • Crewe are also joint-2nd in the division for Win & BTTS. Four of their 6 payouts in this department have come at home. Crewe are unbeaten in 9 games, with 5 wins in that time, by score-lines of: 3-2, 2-1 (x3), and 4-2. AFC Wimbledon have lost 8 of their last 10 games, with 5 of those defeats ticking the box for Win & BTTS

Crewe to Win & Both Teams to Score is 11/4+ (3.75+).

Cambridge v Bradford (League Two)

  • Cambridge are top of League Two, and are also joint-1st for Win & BTTS. Six of their 8 payouts in this market have come at home. Each of Cambridge’s last 6 league wins have been by the 2-1 score-line. Bradford are 19th in League Two, and have scored in each of their last 4 away games

Cambridge to Win & Both Teams to Score is 4/1 (5.0).

Take your pick…

As ever, my advice with these selections is to pick & choose, however you prefer – Singles, Doubles, Trebles, and any manner of combinations…

I’m playing the three-markets approach that has served me well so far, generating overall profits, with five payouts from 11 attempts:

Match Win treble, Both Teams to Score treble, and Win & BTTS treble.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for the weekend…

EFL: 3 games listed above

  • TREBLE. Match Result: Peterborough, Crewe & Cambridge to Win @ 17/2 (9.5) with BetVictor, 8/1+ (9.0+) Bet365 and in general 
  • TREBLE. Both Teams to Score: in the 3 games listed above @ 5/1 (6.0) with Bet365, 9/2+ (5.5+) in general
  • TREBLE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Peterborough, Crewe & Cambridge @ 91/1 with BetVictor, 88/1 Bet365, 83/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred

I’ll be back next week with lots more stats and analysis for you. Have a good weekend.

P.S
Remember you can view all our League, Team, and Head-2-Head stats on our website. Covering 17 leagues, and markets including Match Results, Goals, Corners, Cards, and Scorers. Log in at: www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues