Friday 7th February 2025

In Across the Leagues today:

• FA Cup 4th Round…
• La Liga picks - first game tonight…
• Win & BTTS contenders at 56/1… 

Weekend Preview: FA Cup - and a Spanish pick for tonight…

Last weekend the German Bundesliga stats provided us with a 3/1+ Both Teams to Score winner. Today, we’re off to La Liga in Spain with a 5/1 treble - and the first game kicking-off at 8pm…

Rayo Vallecano v Valladolid - Both Teams to Score
TONIGHT - Fri 8pm

• Rayo Vallecano have the highest home Both Teams to Score rate in the Spanish top-flight, at 90%. They’ve scored in all 10 home games, but managed just one clean sheet. Overall, Vallecano are on a run of 8 out of 9 games for goals at both ends
• Valladolid are 4 from 5 for Both Teams to Score on the road (league & cup), and this bet has paid out in each of their last 3 encounters with tonight’s opponents. The visitors are bottom of the league and have lost 10 out of 11 away La Liga games this season - but Valladolid have got on the scoresheet in 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions

Las Palmas v Villarreal - Both Teams to Score
Sat 5.30pm

• These are the top 2 sides in La Liga for Both Teams to Score this season - Las Palmas have a 73% home strike-rate for this bet, and Villarreal are 73% away (8 out of 11 games)
• Each of the hosts’ last 4 games have seen goals at both ends, as have 5 out of 7 for the visitors. The reverse fixture in September ended 3-1 to Villarreal

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - Both Teams to Score
Sat 8pm (live on Premier Sports)

• The Madrid derby is always an intense affair. Even more so right now, with Real sitting just one point ahead of Atletico in the title race. The key stat here: Both Teams to Score has paid out in each of their last 8 meetings in all competitions
• The last 4 Madrid derbies have finished as Score Draws at the end of Normal Time

Top-rated La Liga sides for Both Teams to Score this season:

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FA Cup 4th Round…

I’m happy with the two ante-post selections that we’ve got in the book for the FA Cup…

It’s the 4th Round this weekend. Last month, we got on two outsiders at 33/1+ Each Way - you can catch up on the original article and advice here…

After convincing wins for our two teams in the 3rd Round. Nottingham Forest, who were a standout 40/1 when we got involved, are now 25/1 at best, and as short as 16/1 in places. Forest go to League One side Exeter on Tuesday night (live on ITV).

While Bournemouth have a much trickier assignment on paper, taking on Premier League opposition in the shape of Everton away (Sat 3pm). The Cherries can still be backed at the top-price 33/1 for the cup with Bet365 (Each Way terms: 1/2 odds for 1-2 places). But are trading at more like 25/1 and 20/1 in general.

In both cases, the bookies have our teams as the favourites to win this weekend, and book a spot in the 5th Round. Let’s see if we can get a big Wembley run out of one (or both!) of those sides this spring.

Football League – Win & BTTS contenders…

There are also plenty of clubs already out of the FA Cup this season. And that means we still have a healthy dose of Football League fixtures to look at this weekend…

Here are three top-rated picks on the form and stats, for a big-odds Win & Both Teams to Score combination:

Sunderland v Watford - SUNDERLAND
Championship, Sat 12.30pm

Norwich v Derby - NORWICH
Championship, Sat 3pm

Swindon v Port Vale - SWINDON
League Two, Sat 12.30pm

A Win & Both Teams to Score treble on those selections pays 50/1+...

In comparison, a standard home-win treble on Sunderland, Norwich & Swindon comes out at less than 5/1…

This is why we go after the more aggressive - and speculative - ‘Win & BTTS’ route. The rewards are significantly greater. And we have the stats to lead us…

For example, no team in the Championship has more Win & Both Teams to Score results in their favour than Sunderland and Norwich this season… while Swindon are top in League Two for goals at both ends overall - and have just won three in a row for Win & BTTS with score-lines of 5-1, 3-1, and 2-1.

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TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details

Spain, La Liga:

Rayo Vallecano v Valladolid - TONIGHT 8pm
Las Palmas v Villarreal - Sat 5.30pm
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid - Sat 8pm

• Treble: Both Teams to Score in all 3 games @ 5/1 (6.0) Betfred, Betway, 9/2+ (5.5+) general

English Football League:

Sunderland v Watford - Sat 12.30pm
Norwich v Derby - Sat 3pm
Swindon v Port Vale - Sat 12.30pm

• Trixie (3 doubles and a treble). Win & Both Teams to Score: Sunderland, Norwich, Swindon - best odds Bet365 (56/1 the treble), BetVictor, William Hill (55/1), 50/1+ general

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P.S
We’ve got a big week coming up next week, with the new Champions League knockout playoffs, 1st legs taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday. Not to mention a midweek Merseyside derby in the Premier League….

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues