Friday 26th May 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Bundesliga – Goals…
• Premier League – HT/ FT comebacks…
• Playoff Finals – Draws… 

Weekend Preview: final-day picks at 9/1 and 25/1…

The final day of the German Bundesliga is usually fun. And by fun, I mean goalmouth action – and lots of it…

Since 2010, the final round of the Bundesliga season has averaged 7 out of 9 games going Over 2.5 Goals…

The final day of last season averaged 3.7 goals per game. With 8 out of 9 going Over 2.5 Goals. Including 5-1, 3-2, and 2 x 2-2 score-lines.

And the list goes on…

• The final day of 2020/21 averaged 3.9 goals per game. With 7 out of 9 going Over 2.5 Goals. Including 5-2, 4-2, 3-2, and 2 x 3-1 score-lines

• The final day in 2019/20 averaged 3.8 goals per game. With 8 out of 9 going Over 2.5 Goals. Including 3 x 4-0 score-lines, a 3-2, and 6-1

• The year before, in 2018/19, the final day of the Bundesliga averaged a whopping 4.5 goals per game, with 7 out of 9 going Over 2.5 Goals. Including 3 x 5-1 score-lines, and even a crazy 8-1 (eight-one)

I see no reason for that trend to change this Saturday afternoon…

Especially when you consider that, unlike in several other recent campaigns, the title race is far from done & dusted. With Borussia Dortmund going into the last day 2 points ahead of defending 10-times-in-a-row champions, Bayern Munich.

While at the bottom of the table, there are still five teams in the relegation battle, with two spaces left to be decided.

Here’s the Bundesliga table, from our website:

With an average of 7 out of 9 going Over 2.5 Goals on the final day in Germany. Here’s my modest attempt at naming the magnificent 7 for this weekend…

These all kick-off at 2.30pm on Saturday…

Borussia Dortmund v Mainz
RB Leipzig v Schalke
Union Berlin v Werder Bremen
FC Koln (Cologne) v Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin
Bochum v Bayer Leverkusen
Stuttgart v Hoffenheim

• The acca on those 7 games to all go Over 2.5 Goals pays around 9/1

Another final-day angle can be found in the Half Time/ Full Time market…

Expect final-day drama in the Premier League, too…

I’ve been researching what usually happens in Round 38 of the Premier League season. And I can tell you that, over the last six years, the final day has produced an above-average number of Half Time/ Full Time (HT/ FT) turnarounds.

In fact, it’s about double the average…

HT/ FT turnarounds on the FINAL DAY of the Premier League:
Occurred in 6 final-day games over the last 6 seasons
6 out of 60 final-day games = 10%

6-season OVERALL Premier League average for HT/ FT turnarounds:
107 out of 2270 games = 4.71%

It’s no surprise that the last day of the campaign can throw up comebacks and rollercoaster score-lines. Teams are either playing free with nothing on the line – or desperately striving to get the result they need to win/ survive/ qualify.

• Last season, the final round of Premier League fixtures saw 2 of the 10 games produce a HT/ FT comeback. Man City came from 0-2 down at the break to beat Aston Villa, 3-2. And Brighton came from 0-1 down at half time to beat West Ham, 3-1

I’ve got my eye on one match in particular for this Sunday afternoon…

Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur

Sunday 4.30pm – BT Sport

The situation is simple for Leeds: to avoid relegation, they need to win – and hope that Leicester and Everton slip up. This home match v Tottenham could be ugly, but it could also turn into a final-day, relegation-escape classic…

The reverse fixture at Spurs was a scoreboard thriller, with the Londoners coming from 1-2 down at half time, to win 4-3.

Last season, the same thing happened. With Tottenham completing a HT/ FT turnaround at home v Leeds, 2-1 – having trailed 0-1 at the interval.

Sam Allardyce and Leeds might feel they can turn the tables this time. And either way, if anyone is in front at the break, it’s going to be tense and possibly very dramatic in the final 45 mins plus stoppage time…

I like the Half Time/ Full Time play here. Splitting a stake between the two options: HT Leeds/ FT Spurs at 22/1, and vice-versa: HT Spurs/ FT Leeds at 25/1.

Playoff Finals…

And finally…

Don’t forget that we’ve already laid down our picks for this weekend’s Football League Playoff Finals at Wembley. We’re going after a trio of draws…

Catch up on the Playoff Finals advice here >>

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

German Bundesliga:

• 7-fold Over 2.5 Goals acca as listed above @ 9/1 William Hill, Betway

Premier League – Leeds v Tottenham:

• Half Time/ Full Time: Leeds/ Tottenham @ 22/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Bet365, William Hill (‘Double Result’ market)

AND:

• Half Time/ Full Time: Tottenham/ Leeds @ 25/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet, 22/1 Bet365 and in general

I’ll be back next week, with some key Bet Builder stats for the FA Cup Final…

Enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues