Friday 8th November 2024

In Across the Leagues today:

• Chelsea v Arsenal…
• Brighton v Man City…
• Boring, boring Millwall… 

Weekend Preview: Goalkeeper stats - and a 101/1 shot…

Did you see the PSG v Atletico match on Wednesday night? Our 10/1 defender to score pick certainly had his chance. He just couldn’t take it…

Playing in his 200th game as PSG captain, centre-back Marquinhos found himself unmarked for a clear header on goal in the 72nd minute… but planted it straight into the grateful arms of the goalkeeper.

Talking of ‘keepers, I’ve got some intriguing goalie stats to share with you today…

Goalkeepers getting Cards is something we looked into a few times last season (for example, here). And this off-the-beaten-track route to potential profits is on my radar again this weekend…

Here are the most-carded goalkeepers in the English top-flight this season, as per the official Premier League website:

It just so happens that David Raya and Robert Sanchez will be lining up against each other this weekend (Chelsea v Arsenal). And so too, Bart Verbruggen and Ederson (Brighton v Man City)... and what’s more, I only found that out after already individually putting those men in my player-card notes…

The upshot being, we get two target matches here - if the slipper fits…

Chelsea v Arsenal

Premier League, Sunday 4.30pm - Sky Sports

David Raya has been booked twice already in the league this season (against Brighton and Liverpool). And the Arsenal no.1 also picked up yellows last term in high-profile fixtures against Man City and Man Utd. While for Chelsea, Robert Sanchez has also collected two yellows this season (Bournemouth, Newcastle)...

The referee for Sunday’s big TV match is Michael Oliver: you might be interested to know that Mr Oliver has booked a goalie in two of his last six Premier League appointments…

To the odds, then. And there’s some 4/1+ (5.0+) about for each ‘keeper here. See the end of this email for bookies and best odds.

Also of note in this game for Player to be Carded potential - albeit at less appealing prices (more like 2/1-ish):

• Wesley Fofana (Chelsea) - with 6 yellows, he’s the most-carded player in the Premier League right now
• Ben White (Arsenal) - booked in both meetings last season, and in 3 of his last 4 v Chelsea. Yellows in 2 of his last 4 starts for the Gunners this term
• Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal) - booked in 2 of his last 4 appearances. Often a candidate for a card and 'getting involved' in a big match. Eg. 3 of his last 4 league bookings have come against Man City or Liverpool

Brighton v Man City

Premier League, Saturday 5.30pm - Sky Sports

Bart Verbruggen and Edersen are the two most-carded ‘keepers in the Premier League this season, with three yellows apiece. City no.1 Ederson also finished the 2023/24 campaign as the joint-top goalie for this unwanted accolade.

The referee for this one is Samuel Barrott - and he’s already booked Brighton's Verbruggen - at home - once this term. For ‘unsportsmanlike conduct,’ late in the match.

We can get a top price of 6/1 each for the two goalies in this live Saturday-night game.

• Across those two target matches, at the best prices, one carded ‘keeper out of the four would be enough to give a profit on this weekend venture

Is Paqueta a marked man?

Sticking with Player Cards for a little longer. I also want to point out an unfolding - and potentially unsavoury - story in the Premier League.

An internet news search for West Ham’s Lucas Paqueta will tell you that the Brazilian is facing betting/ match-fixing allegations regarding yellow cards he received a couple of seasons back. This news story also expands on the issue in Brazil.

Innocent until proven guilty. Paqueta is fully permitted to play on as usual right now. And maybe he’s a marked man with refs or opponents… or simply feisty in the tackle… but Lucas has had a flurry of bookings recently. Paqueta has seen yellow in three league games in a row for the Hammers.

He’s in with the favourites to make it four cards in a row this weekend (West Ham v Everton). The likes of Skybet and Betfred are going 15/8 (2.88), and you rarely see shorter odds than those in the Player to be Carded markets.

Boring, boring Millwall…

There’s nothing boring about winning, is there…

Millwall are the form team in the Championship with four wins in a row - all by the classic, clean-sheet-wielding, 1-0 Correct Score…

The Lions go to Stoke City on Saturday lunchtime (12.30pm, Sky Sports+). The Potters have just won two on the bounce, after managing just one victory in their eight league games prior.

This is the seventh straight season that Stoke and Millwall have been in the Championship together. Ten of those 12 meetings have gone Under 2.5 Goals. And Millwall have come out on top in two of the last three encounters by that 1-0 Correct Score…

Under 2.5 Goals is no better than 4/6 (1.67) here, and more like 3/5 (1.6) in general. But more exciting odds of 7/1 for Millwall to carve out another 1-0 win appeal to my senses here.

Win & Both Teams to Score selections…

And finally…

We have a big English Football League (EFL) schedule to take aim at on Saturday afternoon. And we’re continuing our bold, big-odds quest by going after three more well-rated and nicely-priced candidates in the Match Result & Both Teams to Score market…

• Playing these as a Trixie: three doubles and a treble - with two winning lines needed for a payout

These are all Saturday 3pm games in League One:

Wigan v Wycombe
Wycombe to Win & Both Teams to Score

Stockport v Bolton
Bolton to Win & Both Teams to Score

Bristol Rovers v Lincoln
Lincoln to Win & Both Teams to Score

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TODAY’S PICKS & BEST ODDS

See above for full details

Chelsea v Arsenal:

• Player to be Carded: Robert Sanchez @ 5/1 (6.0) Skybet, 9/2 (5.5) Bet365, 17/4 (5.25) William Hill
• Player to be Carded: David Raya @ 27/5 (6.4) 888 Sport, 19/4 (5.75) Ladbrokes, Coral, 9/2 (5.5) Skybet, 17/4 (5.25) William Hill, Spread Ex, Sporting Index, 4/1 (5.0) Star Sports

Brighton v Man City:

• Player to be Carded: Bart Verbruggen @ 6/1 (7.0) Skybet, Star Sports, 5/1 (6.0) William Hill, 888 Sport 
• Player to be Carded: Ederson @ 6/1 (7.0) Bet365, 11/2 (6.5) Skybet, 5/1 (6.0) Betfred

Stoke v Millwall:

• Correct Score: Millwall 1-0 @ 7/1 (8.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Boylesports, Spread Ex, Sporting Index

Three League One games as listed above:

TRIXIE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Wycombe, Bolton, Lincoln - best odds William Hill, Bet365 (101/1 the treble), 888 Sport (96/1), BetVictor (94/1)

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P.S
Remember you can log-in to view all our stats for 18 leagues at:

www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Have a good weekend - and enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues