Friday 17th February 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Win & BTTS pick for tonight…
• Newcastle v Liverpool on Saturday…
• Playing the stats for big odds…

Weekend Preview – including a 354/1 Bet Builder…

Hello again. I landed at Gatwick yesterday evening, and the drive home to Oxfordshire took longer than the flight back from Spain. If you have to contend with the M25 for your daily commute, you have my sympathies.

The trip away was good – and now I’m back and ready for action. Next week we’ll be getting our teeth into some big games in the Champions League. This weekend we’re going after some tasty odds in one of the Premier League live TV games…

After a four-legs-out-of-six near miss from an 80/1 shot on Tottenham v Man City last time we went after a Bet Builder combo. I’m taking aim at a classic Premier League fixture this Saturday teatime – Newcastle v Liverpool…

Bet Builder: Newcastle v Liverpool

Premier League, Sat 5.30pm – Sky Sports

Newcastle featured in our 225/1 Draw Yankee before I went away. A 1-1 result at Bournemouth clicked along with a 0-0 between NEC Nijmegen v SC Cambuur Leeuwarden in the Dutch Eredivisie. Giving a 14/1 double and a tiny profit from the small stakes, big odds Yankee on four draws. Since then, Lincoln have played another game in English League One – and drew it, 1-1.

Back to the Geordies, and Newcastle remain out in front as the Premier League’s draw specialists…

Eddie Howe’s men have played 22 league games this season, and drawn 11 of them. That 50% strike-rate makes backing the Magpies for the Draw as profitable bet, seeing as the stalemate is generally available at odds of around 5/2 (3.5).

• Taking 5/2 odds for the Draw, backing that outcome in all 22 Newcastle games so far would have produced 16.5 points to level 1-point stakes, for a 75% ROI

Riding high in the Top 4 in the league, and also into the EFL Cup final at Wembley later this month. Newcastle’s newfound success on the pitch comes from being hard to beat. Beaten just twice in 32 competitive matches in all competitions this season…

Newcastle’s only Premier League defeat so far in this campaign came at Anfield, with Liverpool coming from 0-1 down to win 2-1 with a last-gasp goal back in August.

More recently, Eddie Howe’s boys have been picking up the points, one by one. With 5 draws from their last 6 league outings. And all 6 going Under 2.5 Goals:

In this weekend’s ATL Extra email the predictions feature a full house of draws for Newcastle v Liverpool. With myself, my colleague Shaun, and the BBC’s Chris Sutton all plumping for a 1-1 score-line.

A look at the Premier League history books tells us to expect entertainment in this fixture. With that famous 4-3 at Anfield in 1996 (and another 4-3 the year after) setting the bar high for goalmouth action in this match-up.

However, in more recent times games between the Magpies and the Reds have been less dramatic, with two of the last five in the head-to-head ending as draws. And the last two encounters at St James’ Park going low on the Total Goals: 0-1 last season, and 0-0 the year before.

With Liverpool arriving here short on form (just two wins from eight in all comps), Saturday’s game under the lights is a big one for both clubs, for different reasons. For the hosts, the chance to make a statement as a genuine contender for the Champions League qualification places. For the visitors, an opportunity to gain some momentum following a 2-0 win in the Merseyside derby on Monday night.

I’m sticking with my Draw prediction here. And as we saw when backing the full-time stalemate in our World Cup final Bet Builder, odds of 2/1+ for a tie can really send the accumulator odds snowballing…

Let’s take a look at some other stats to add legs to this Saturday evening Bet Builder for Newcastle v Liverpool…

CORNERS:

Do you put your trust in the historical head-to-head? Liverpool have won the Most Corners in each of their last 13 games against Newcastle. Or the current-season form? Newcastle have won the Most Corners in 10 out of 11 home league games in 2022/23 (91%) – while Liverpool have landed the Corners Match Bet in just one of their last 6 games in all comps.

One area where the stats new and old match-up is for Under 10.5 Total Corners. That bet has delivered in 6 of the last 7 Newcastle-Liverpool fixtures at St James’ Park. Also paying out in 3 of the Magpies’ last 5 at home in the league overall, and in 8 of Liverpool’s last 9 away games in all comps.

CARDS:

The Premier League Totals tables on our website shows that Newcastle have got 40 Yellow Cards this season, with 21 coming at home. While Liverpool are the best-behaved team in the league in this department, with just 23 Yellows in total, of which 13 have come on the road.

However, once again the more recent form is of the most interest to me. Liverpool’s ropey form has seen frustrations rise, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Jurgen Klopp’s usually squeaky-clean team have got the Most Cards in 4 of their last 5 away games in all comps (and in 5 out of 7 going back to before Christmas). Liverpool have also landed Most Cards/ Most Booking Points bets on each of their last two visits to Newcastle.

PLAYERS:

Newcastle midfielder Joelinton is the most-carded player in the Premier League this season, with 9 yellows. He’s been booked in 3 league games in a row. And was also carded in this fixture last season, both home and away.

Liverpool defender Joe Gomez is one of the main card candidates for the visitors. He’s been booked in 2 of his last 3 away appearances. Gomez also went in the ref’s book on last season’s trip to St James’ Park.

And on the goal-scoring front, Liverpool’s main man Mo Salah has found the net in 6 out of 8 starts against Newcastle. Mo ended a recent 5-game barren spell with the opening goal in Monday’s 2-0 win over Everton.

All of the above in a six-legged Bet Builder comes out a whopping 354/1 with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook:

Draw
Under 10.5 Corners
Joe Gomez to get a Card
Joelinton to get a Card
Liverpool Most Cards
Mo Salah to Score

Using £10 as a guide 1-point total stake here, I’m mixing and matching the above player picks and splitting a stake across a further two Bet Builders:

Eg.
£1 on the six-leg Bet Builder as above (0.1 pt)
And £4.50 each on these two four-leg Bet Builders (0.45 pt x 2):

Draw
Under 10.5 Corners
Mo Salah to Score
Liverpool Most Cards
@ 38/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

And

Draw
Under 10.5 Corners
Joe Gomez to get a Card
Joelinton to get a Card
@ 58/1 Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

Bet Builder coupons are also available with bookies including Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Unibet, BetVictor.

Win & BTTS Trixie…

Sticking with the big-odds approach to playing the stats, my weekend research also leads me to three of the top-rated teams in Europe for Win & Both Teams to Score payouts this season. As demonstrated on the Win & BTTS tab of our Top Performing Teams page:

Napoli, Celtic and Real Madrid are the teams in question. With the former playing tonight in Serie A (7.45pm, BT Sport).

Weekend Win & Both Teams to Score picks:

• Sassuolo v NAPOLI – Italy, Serie A – Tonight 7.45pm

• CELTIC v Aberdeen – Scottish Premiership – Saturday 3pm

• Osasuna v REAL MADRID – Spain, La Liga – Saturday 8pm

A treble on those three pays 34/1, with the best prices at the time of writing with Bet365 and Betway.

My advice: splitting a 1-pt stake four ways across a Trixie (four doubles and the treble, Eg. 0.25 pt x 4).

TODAY’S PICKS

BET BUILDERS:
Newcastle v Liverpool – 3 x Bet Builders as outlined above

WIN & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE:
Trixie on Napoli, Celtic & Real Madrid as listed above

I’ll be back next week with standout stats and price selections for the midweek Champions League and English Football League games taking place on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Have a good weekend. And enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues