Thursday 23rd March 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• Euro 2024 Qualifiers, 7.45pm…

• Correct Score treble at 200/1…

• Low-goals stats in League Two… 

Weekend Preview - including Euro picks for tonight…

I’m about to head off for a night away, so I’ve been getting my head into the weekend research a bit earlier than usual…

The first International break of the year kicks off today, with a batch of Euro 2024 Qualifiers. With the World Cup not long in the rear-view mirror, it’s exciting to think we have another Major tournament to look forward to next summer.

These Qualifiers often produce some mismatches and/ or lob-sided score-lines (‘Giants v Minnows,’ etc…). However, as we’ve discussed in the past, certain - how shall we say, less glamorous - match-ups can tend to turn up some unspectacular Win to Nil scores…

Three matches on tonight’s fixture list fit that bill for me. I’ve been looking into the form and historical/ recent head-to-heads. And while this is far from an exact science, on this occasion I believe the 2-0 Correct Score could give us a promising 90-minute run, for these three favourites in today’s match betting:

San Marino v Northern Ireland - Northern Ireland 2-0 @ 4/1

North Macedonia v Malta - North Macedonia 2-0 @ 9/2

Slovakia v Luxembourg - Slovakia 2-0 @ 6/1

Those prices are with Betfred and Boylesports.

As I say, it’s not an exact science. But if we take the case of San Marino - long-standing holder of the ‘FIFA’s lowest-ranked nation’ tag. The perennial underdogs haven’t been absolutely hammered by anyone since England’s 10-0 win back in November 2021…

Since then, in 10 games played at all levels, San Marino’s most-common score-lines have been 1-0 and 2-0 defeats (three of each).

There’s an element of a percentage-play about the 2-0 scores for today’s picks. I’ve heard from members in years gone by who like to perm a few combinations on days like this, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 scores, etc.

After two out of three winning lines and a 20/1 winning First Scorer double from our small-stakes Trixie at similar odds last weekend. I’m putting up the above 2-0 Correct Scores with the same tactic today:

Splitting a stake four ways across a Trixie, in order to cover the big odds in the event of a multiple payout (eg. 0.25 pt x 4 = 1 pt stake).

The treble in this little lot is worth over 190/1 at the prices quoted above. And over 200/1 with Unibet.

• Trixie = 4 lines (3 doubles and a treble)

You may wish to play these as singles, too, as we did with last week’s scorers. But for me, today’s Correct Score angle is very much for small stakes only. The Trixie fits that bill.

Low-goals stats in League Two…

Gillingham v Carlisle

League Two, Saturday 3pm

Gillingham are the no.1 team in the division for Under 2.5 Goals results this season. And their 81% overall record puts them in joint-2nd place out of all 17 leagues covered in the stats on our website.

The stats also make this weekend’s visitors Carlisle a strong prospect to contribute to another Under 2.5 Goals payout:

• Carlisle have just drawn 2 games in a row, 0-0. And 4 of their last 6 have gone Under 2.5. They won the reverse fixture v Gillingham, 1-0

Again, there’s Correct Score potential here, with low-scoring options in mind.

The standout stat and recommended bet though is for Under 2.5 Goals. Skybet have the best price, at 8/13 (1.62).

Duk on the run…

We started the week talking about our 33/1 FA Cup picks Brighton. The Seagulls are through to the semi finals at Wembley next month, and now just 6/1 for the trophy.

Not all of our ante-post, outright bets go so well, of course. But we set out our stall to oppose the big-name favourites in the Scottish Premiership Top Goalscorer market this season (eg. Celtic and Rangers players). And so far, that non-Old Firm tactic isn’t looking too shabby…

We started with Hearts forward Lawrence Shankland, backed at a best price of 20/1 Each Way before a ball had been kicked - read more here, 29th July. Shankland is currently 2nd in the standings, and now 9/2 (5.5) at best to finish top of the pile.

Then, on 27th October, I acted on a tip-off from Across the Leagues member Paul S, who emailed me regarding the form of Aberdeen youngster, Luis ‘Duk’ Lopes…

The forward duly went in the book for us at 33/1 Each Way. And with three goals from his last two games, Duk is now in with a shout - sitting two goals away from the Top 3, Each Way places as it stands (1/4 odds terms).

The bookies now make Duk big odds to catch the leaders, with BetVictor at 66/1. But that current price is Win Only, whereas we have 3 Each Way places to aim for from our original advice.

Thanks again to Paul for the info. I’ll leave the last word to him this week: “C’mon Duk, you can do it for us!!”

Scottish Premiership 2023/23 - Top Scorers:

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Euro 2024 Qualifiers
TONIGHT, 7.45pm

San Marino v Northern Ireland
North Macedonia v Malta
Slovakia v Luxembourg

• TRIXIE. Correct Scores: Northern Ireland 2-0, North Macedonia 2-0, Slovakia 2-0. Best odds Unibet (214/1 the treble), Betfred, Boylesports (191.5/1)

Gillingham v Carlisle
League Two, Saturday 3pm

• Under 2.5 Goals @ 8/13 (1.62) Skybet, 1/2 (1.5) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral

See you next week…

P.S
Remember you can log-in to view all our stats for 17 leagues at: www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Want to get in touch? Hit my inbox at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues