Friday 31st March 2023

In Across the Leagues today:

• 64/1 Bet Builder for the big game…
• 6 out of 7 for Fabinho…
• 9/1 EFL treble… 

Weekend Preview – including Man City v Liverpool…

There’s lots for us to talk about…

With 17 leagues covered by the stats on our website… taking in some 300+ teams, and thousands of players…

Along with my own research and writings on competitions like the Champions League and FA Cup…

There are any number of stats, trends, betting angles, and price picks that I could point you towards every weekend (and almost every weekday for that matter, too)…

But I am but a man. And it pays to focus on just one or two areas at a time. This weekend, the big attraction is the Saturday lunchtime TV game between Manchester City and Liverpool.

After the recent International break, what a fixture to announce the return of the Premier League…

BET BUILDER:

Manchester City v Liverpool

Premier League
Saturday 12.30pm, BT Sport

As promised, I’ve taken the stats to town for this one. Drawing on not only the 2022/23 League and Team Stats on our website. But also, the historical head-to-head between these clubs from recent seasons.

What we’re looking for in the numbers here are consistent occurrences… stats match-ups… and signs of one-sided domination in particular departments…

Here are my findings…

Man City & Liverpool – recent meetings:

• Both Teams to Score: paid out in 7 of last 8 meetings in all competitions, and in 10 of last 12

• Under 11.5 Corners: paid out in each of last 9 meetings

• Most Corners – Man City: paid out in last 6 meetings

• Man City 4+ Team Corners: last 6 meetings

• Mo Salah: scored in last 3 games against Man City, and in 6 of his last 8 appearances in this fixture (including 3 penalties)

• Most Cards – Liverpool: 5 of last 7 meetings (and 2 ties)

• Fabinho: booked in 6 of last 7 appearances against Man City

And not forgetting…

• Erling Haaland: we can’t mention this game without discussing the Man City striker and Premier League & Champions League top scorer. According to his dad, having just missed the recent International fixtures for Norway, Haaland is ‘touch and go’ to return to the Man City side on Saturday. In the latest press conference, City boss Pep Guardiola refused to rule him out. I’m reminded somewhat of the Arsene Wenger days here (the old ‘Thierry Henry is injured and won’t play’ trick…). Considering Erling has banged in 9 goals in his last 3 games (!), it’s hard to see him not featuring if he is fit…

First up, out of that batch of stats and nuggets, the one I like most at the price for a standalone bet is Fabinho to be shown a Card, at 2/1. The Liverpool midfield has been a bit floppy and sloppy this season, and the Brazilian is the Reds’ most-carded player in the league – along with that startling ‘6 out of 7’ yellow-card record against Man City.

Secondly, let’s use the above stats package to piece together a big-odds contender for a Bet Builder…

Taking each of those 8 bullet points and adding them to the Bet Builder coupon at Paddy Power. The acca comes out as a 64/1 shot. That’s the kind of price we like…

Both Teams to Score? Yes

Under 11.5 Corners

Corners Match Bet: Man City

Home Total Corners: Over 3.5

Player to Score: Erling Haaland

Player to Score: Mo Salah

Team to Receive the Most Cards: Liverpool

Player Shown a Card: Fabinho

(Note: without Haaland, the combo is 37/1. If he plays no part in the game, his line in the Bet Builder would be void.)

Do with this info as you like…

Bet Builder options are also available with the likes of Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports.

EFL form picks at 9/1…

Playing the pure current form, these three English Football League (EFL) teams are worthy of a Match Result win treble for us on Saturday afternoon…

Derby County v Ipswich Town – IPSWICH to win
League One
Saturday 3pm

• Ipswich are 3rd in League One, and top of our Last 5 Games Form table. The Tractor Boys have won 6 in a row, and are unbeaten in 10. Derby are still very much in the playoff hunt (6th), but have lost 3 of their last 4. Ipswich won the reverse fixture, 1-0

Peterborough Utd v Oxford Utd – PETERBOROUGH to win
League One
Saturday 3pm

• Peterborough are 7th in the league, and have won 4 of their last 5. Struggling Oxford are 20th, and despite a change of manager, their winless streak stands at 11 games. The Posh are looking to do the double here, having won 2-1 at Oxford back in October

Northampton Town v Stevenage – NORTHAMPTON to win
League Two
Saturday 3pm

• Northampton are 2nd in League Two and have won 4 of their last 5, including 3 in a row. Unbeaten in 7 overall, the Cobblers have won each of their last 3 home games, 1-0. Stevenage are 3rd, but bring less than encouraging away form – just one win in their last 10 on the road. Northampton won the reverse fixture 3-2, and did the double over Stevenage last season

The treble on Ipswich, Peterborough & Northampton pays 9/1.

League One – Form table – Top 10:

League Two – Form table – Top 10:

TODAY’S PICKS

See above for full details

Man City v Liverpool:

• Player Shown a Card: Fabinho @ 21/10 (3.1) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 2/1 (3.0) Betfred, Bet365, Skybet, Unibet, 10Bet, LiveScoreBet

• Bet Builder: as listed above @ 64/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

League One & League Two:

• Treble. Match Result: Ipswich, Peterborough, and Northampton to win @ 9/1 William Hill, Bet365, Unibet

I’ll be back next week with more stats, picks & analysis for you.

Have a good weekend. And enjoy the football…

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues