Friday 16th September 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – live on ITV4…
• Boring, boring Preston…
• Win & BTTS selections…

Weekend Preview – Madrid derby, and a 62/1 combo…

Our scorer picks have been leading us a merry dance recently…

In Wednesday’s Champions League email, I highlighted five players in the ‘cream rising to the top’ category. Four of them scored that night – Lionel Messi, Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, and Erling Braut Haaland.

But my bet selection Vinicius Junior failed to find the net. And to make matters worse, his Madrid teammate Federico Valverde – who I’d also flagged up for his recent scoring exploits from midfield – scored the first goal of the game v RB Leipzig, and it was a lovely finish, his second peach in a row.

That little lot of hard-luck stories comes a week or so after I named Bayer Leverkusen striker Patrik Schick as one to look out for in the Anytime Scorer markets. He duly found the net in his very next league game, one match after my recommended bet had come a cropper.

These frustrations are all part and parcel of sports betting. Everyone’s got a chest full of near misses and ones that got away, I’m sure. Unbowed, and with price the absolute driving force behind these picks – I’m eager to follow two of our recent men again this weekend…

Cam the man…

In League One, we’re on Oxford United’s Cameron Brannagan at 50/1 & 33/1 Each Way to be 2022/23 Top Goalscorer . The 33s is still available with Bet365 and Skybet today (Each Way terms: 1/4 odds 1-4 places).

Brannagan catches the eye again for me in the Anytime Scorer market on Saturday, with the penalty-taking midfielder – his club’s top scorer this season – available at 3/1 to find the net at home v MK Dons. This will be Brannagan’s 200th appearance for Oxford. His manager can’t speak highly enough about last season’s dual Fans’ and Players’ Player of the Year.

‘There will be trouble’…

In the Spanish La Liga, there’s a huge match on Sunday evening, the capital-city derby between Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid…

For the visiting team, Real’s 22-year-old hot property Vinicius Junior is staying on the bet list – looking to find the net for what would be a 5th consecutive league game. When asked how the home fans might react if Vini Jr brings out his dancing goal celebrations on Sunday, Atletico captain Koke said “there will be trouble” . I like odds of 2/1 for Vinicius to score – that’s a bigger price than last time we backed him.

Watch out for a few yellow cards in that game, too. It could get spicy. The good news for armchair enthusiasts is that Atletico v Real is live on ITV4 on Sunday night. ITV have bagged the rights to 10 La Liga games this season, with the deal stating that all 10 must feature one or more of the ‘big three’ – Barcelona, Real, and Atletico.

Boring, boring Preston…

Preston North End games haven’t produced much goalmouth excitement this season – and that’s putting it lightly…

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in nine out of nine matches for Ryan Lowe’s boys. And all but one of them have paid out on the lower Under 1.5 Goals line, too…

While a stack of 0-0’s and the like are never going to fill up the TV highlights reel. There’s certainly nothing boring about a string of winning bets. And that’s exactly what Preston are offering right now, if you’re happy to take odds-on prices to follow this 100% trend. (I’m putting the Under 2.5 pick in a weekend treble – see below.)

This weekend that Under 2.5 Goals bet is 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365, and around 4/7 (1.57) in general. Preston take on Championship leaders Sheffield United. On our website , the Head-2-Head stats comparison for this game makes the Blades a good match-up on the Home v Away form, with four of Sheff Utd’s away games going Under 2.5 so far this season:

Tuesday’s Preston v Burnley game saw two goals scored within the first 15 minutes – leaving Under 2.5 Goals backers to sweat it out for the remaining 75 mins plus stoppage time. It ended 1-1, so the 100% low-goals record remained intact. Maybe we can put that fast start down to the fact that it was a feisty Lancashire derby?

• As an alternative to the short prices in the Total Goals market, you could also consider covering one or two of the Correct Scores that are covered by an Under 2.5 Goals game. Eg. 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2

I’m going for the away team as the price pick here. First-place Sheff Utd have won six league games this term, and five of them have paid out on the Win to Nil. For all their defensive merits, Preston have been blunt in attack, failing to score in six of their nine games. The Blades to Win to Nil at 11/4 catches my eye here.

Playing the stats at 4/1…

Using the League and Team Stats on our website, I’ve identified three top match-ups for Under 2.5 Goals this weekend. Here are the games in question, and the Under 2.5 strike-rate percentages:

Preston v Sheff Utd – 100% home v 80% away
Championship, Sat 3pm

Colchester v Grimsby – 75% v 86% overall
League Two, Sat 3pm

Everton v West Ham – 83% v 83% overall
Premier League, Sun 2.15pm – Sky Sports

• The Under 2.5 Goals treble pays around 4/1 

62/1 Win & BTTS combo…

Wednesday’s 100/1+ Champions League acca gave six winning legs out of nine, and we’ll be going after the big prize in Europe again when Matchday 3 comes along at the start of next month. For this weekend’s tilt at a big-odds combo, here are my three English Football League (EFL) picks for Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS)…

These matches feature the three top-rated teams on our website for Win & BTTS bets, in their respective divisions:

NORWICH v West Brom – Championship, Sat 3pm

PORTSMOUTH v Plymouth – League One, Sat 3pm

NORTHAMPTON v Rochdale – League Two, Sat 3pm

I’m advising these Win & Both Teams to Score selections as a Trixie, splitting a stake four ways across three doubles and the 62/1 treble.

TODAY’S PICKS

Oxford Utd v MK Dons – League One, Sat 3pm:

• Anytime Scorer: Cameron Brannagan @ 3/1 (4.0) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 14/5 (3.8) BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway, 11/4 (3.75) Betfred

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Spanish La Liga, Sun 8pm – ITV4:

• Anytime Scorer: Vinicius Junior @ 23/10 (3.3) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 21/10 (3.1) Bet365, 2/1 (3.0) Unibet

Preston v Sheff Utd – Championship, Saturday 3pm:

• To Win to Nil: Sheff Utd @ 11/4 (3.75) Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 27/10 (3.7) BetVictor, 5/2 (3.5) Betfred, Boylesports, Betway, Ladbrokes, Coral

Premier League & EFL (see above for kick-off times):

• TREBLE. Under 2.5 Goals: Preston v Sheff Utd, Colchester v Grimsby, Everton v West Ham @ 4/1 (5.0) Unibet, Bet365, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 7/2+ (4.5+) in general

EFL – Sat 3pm:

• TRIXIE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Norwich, Portsmouth, Northampton. Best odds – William Hill, BetVictor (62/1 the treble), Bet365 (61/1), Skybet, Betfred (59/1)

I’ll be back next week with more standout stats and selections for you.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues