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Weekend Preview - Italian goals at 27/1...

Friday 29th January 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

  • Livingston v Aberdeen…
  • Premier League corners…
  • Win & Both Teams to Score contenders…

Weekend Preview – Italian goals at 27/1…

Livingston’s run of excellent results has not gone unnoticed by Across the Leagues member Kevin C:

I don't usually send in emails but I've been quietly profiting from Livingston's last 10 games of which 8 were won and 2 drawn, both to Celtic. I don't know how long the run can go on though, it's maybe a bit late. Oh and I apologise if you already mentioned it, but it could do with another mention!”

Don’t apologise, Kevin…

Livingston’s form is indeed worthy of another mention. In our analysis on 13th January we noted that Livi had won 8 games in a row in all competitions since David Martindale took charge.

Four games later, and Martindale’s side are now unbeaten in 12 matches overall.

We also highlighted Livingston’s form for Under 10.5 Corners. On our website, they sit 2nd in our Scottish Premiership table for that stat. With a 79% strike-rate, made up of 19 out of 24 games producing 10 or less Total Corners.

Scottish Premiership Corners Stats

Livingston v Aberdeen – attempt no.3…

In that 13th Jan email, I previewed the Livingston v Aberdeen game. It ended up being call off for a second time. First for a frozen pitch, then due to torrential rain.

They go for a thirst attempt at the Tony Macaroni Arena this weekend (Saturday 3pm).

This is 5th v 3rd in the league table. Livingston have won 3 of their last 4 at home, with a draw v Celtic the only blot, if you can call it that, since the start of December. Aberdeen have only won one of their last 8 away.

Despite that recent form, the Match Result market has this match as a 50-50 affair. Each side are available at around 17/10 (2.7) to win, with the draw not much above 2/1 (3.0).

Aberdeen also bring some significant low-corners form of their own. With a 71% overall record for Under 10.5 Corners, to go alongside Livingston’s 79% stat. The bookies aren’t taking many chances in that market, with Under 10.5 priced at 1/2 (1.5) at best (Skybet).

In my original write-up for this fixture two weeks ago, I flagged up Livingston defender Jon Guthrie and midfielder Scott Robinson as 3/1 and 4/1 outside chances in the Anytime Scorer betting.

Since then, Guthrie has played every game, but not added any more goals to his 5-goal tally. Robinson scored in the cup v St Mirren, but has started on the bench in the last two league games.

There are many ways to look at this match (and the sides meet again at Aberdeen next Tuesday night, too). For me, the strongest case on form and price is to back Livingston to rack up another 3 points.

Euro scorers…

Our website contains Scorers stats for 17 different leagues, and over 300 teams.

Clearly then, there are always going to be several if not dozens players that could get our attention in the Anytime Scorer and First Goalscorer markets, on any given weekend or round of games.

All the info is on the site for you to find, view & use, at your leisure:

www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

I’m focusing on a couple of men in Germany that have found their way into my notebook over the past fortnight, with some attractive prices on offer…

Bundesliga:

Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim (Sat 2.30pm, BT Sport)

This fixture has a history for goals. Each of the last 7 meetings have gone Over 2.5 Goals. Since the start of last season, the score-lines have been:

Hoffenheim 4 Bayern 1 (league)
Hoffenheim 0 Bayern 6 (league)
Bayern 4 Hoffenheim 3 (cup)
Bayern 1 Hoffenheim 2 (league)

Those two Hoffenheim wins will give spirit to upset-hunters this weekend. The away win is 10/1 (Bet365).

Andrej Kramaric scored 2 of his team’s goals in the last meeting, which was a 4-1 win in September. More recently, the Hoffenheim penalty taker has scored 4 goals in his last 2 games this month.

Bayern have only managed 2 Clean Sheets in 8 home Bundesliga games this season. Kramaric is the key threat in attack for the visitors.

While Bayern’s runaway top scorer Robert Lewandowski is short-odds on to score, at 3/10 (1.3) at best. Kramaric appeals at 23/10 (3.3) to score Anytime.

Werder Bremen v Schalke (Sat 2.30pm)

Schalke are bottom of the Bundesliga, but American teenager Matthew Hoppe has been a shining light in recent weeks…

The 19-year-old made headlines with a hat-trick a couple of weeks back. And followed that up with goals in each of his next two appearances. Hoppe has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 3 of his last 4 games.

Like Bayern, Werder Bremen have only kept 2 Clean Sheet in 8 attempts at home. Hoppe is the form man, and odds of 14/5 (3.8) catch the eye.

Premier League corners…

Brighton and Aston Villa delivered in the Most Corners and Corners Match Bet markets in midweek. Both teams stay on the list for this weekend’s Premier League match-ups:

Brighton v Tottenham (Sun 7.15pm, Sky Sports)

  • Brighton have won the Most Corners in 9 out of 10 home games (90%). Tottenham’s away record for this bet is just 44%, and they’ve won the Corners Match Bet in just 4 of their last 13 league games overall. In the reverse fixture, Brighton went to Spurs and won the corner count, 4-5

Southampton v Aston Villa (Sat 8pm, Sky Sports)

  • Aston Villa have won the Most Corners in 7 out of 10 away games (70%). Villa are ranked 3rd in the Premier League overall for this bet. Southampton are in 15th place for Most Corners results, with just 7 payouts to their name all season, with 19 games played. The corners score in the reverse fixture at Villa Park was 11-1

Brighton and Villa are available at around Evens (2.0) each to win the Most Corners or Corners Match Bet.

Win & BTTS contenders…

Last but not least, I’m shooting at a big price this weekend with my latest trip to the Win & Both Teams to Score markets (Win & BTTS)…

This time the stats take us to Serie A in Italy:

  • Inter Milan v Benevento (Sat 7.45pm). Inter are the No.1 team in Serie A for this bet, with 8 of their 13 wins paying out on Win & BTTS. Benevento are on a 4-game run for Both Teams to Score. Inter beat them 5-2 last time they met 
  • Atalanta v Lazio (Sun 2pm). This is a repeat of the midweek Coppa Italia quarter final, which Atalanta won 3-2. Seven of Atalanta’s 10 league wins have paid out on Win & BTTS. Four of Lazio’s 5 defeats have gone this way
  • Cagliari v Sassuolo (Sun 2pm). Sassuolo have won 8 Serie A matches this season, and 5 of them have delivered on Win & BTTS. Each of their last 8 games have seen both teams score. Cagliari are 12 league games without a win, and have lost 6 in a row. They’ve found the net in 5 of their last 6 at home, though

Take your pick…

As I always say, you can mix and match these games in any number of combination bets.

With the odds a little shorter here than in our recent match win/ Both Teams to Score attempts in the English Football League, I’m playing direct and going straight for the big prize, with the Win & BTTS treble at 27/1.

Today’s picks

From the analysis above, here are my picks for the weekend…

Livingston v Aberdeen

  • Livingston to win @ 17/10 (2.7) with BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway

Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim

  • Anytime Scorer: Andrej Kramaric @ 23/10 (3.3) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 21/10 (3.1) Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral

Werder Bremen v Schalke

  • Anytime Scorer: Matthew Hoppe @ 14/5 (3.8) with Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, 13/5 (3.6) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Brighton v Tottenham

  • Most Corners: Brighton @ Evens (2.0) with Skybet, 19/20 (1.95) Bet365, Betway, 10/11 (1.91) Boylesports, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Southampton v Aston Villa

  • Corners Match Bet: Aston Villa @ 21/20 (2.05) with Bet365, Evens (2.0) Skybet, 19/20 (1.95) Betway, Boylesports, 10/11 (1.91) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

Italy – Serie A:

  • TREBLE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Inter Milan, Atalanta & Sassuolo @ 27/1 with Betway, Betfred, Skybet, 26/1 Bet365, Boylesports

I’ll be back on Monday, ready for another packed week of fixtures. Including a full midweek programme in the Premier League.

P.S
Remember you can view all our League, Team, and Head-2-Head stats on our website. Covering 17 leagues, and markets including Match Results, Goals, Corners, Cards, and Scorers. Log in at: www.AcrossTheLeagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues