Friday 5th February 2021
In Across the Leagues today:
Yesterday’s pointers ended up proving useful. Let’s see if the notebook can lead us to something tasty this weekend…
Raul Garcia was flagged up for having scored or been booked in 6 of his last 12 appearances for Athletic Bilbao. My only concern last night was whether the 34-year-old would be in the starting line-up, having been on the bench for the previous two Copa del Rey ties.
As it turned out, Garcia started, played the whole match, picked up a yellow card – and scored a 94th minute equaliser (!). He remains one to lookout for in Spain.
In the Premier League on Thursday, Chelsea went to Tottenham and won, 1-0…
Since taking over at the Blues, Thomas Tuchel is yet to see his new team concede a goal. They’ve also won the Most Corners in all three matches. The corners score was 7-2 to Chelsea last night. Although as observed yesterday, odds-on prices for the away Most Corners win were nothing to write home about.
All of this week’s articles & analysis are available in the Picks & Analysis archive on our website…
For example, you might find this week’s Monday Report email useful. The German Bundesliga scorers mentioned are all set to be in action again this weekend.
Including Andrej Kramaric and Andre Silva lining up against each other on Sunday (Hoffenheim v Eintracht Frankfurt). Those guys are around 6/5 (2.2) each to score again.
In the pursuit of bigger prices this weekend, I should first point you towards yesterday’s email. Where we outlined the long-term mentality required for long-odds betting…
If you’re up for the battle, see below for the matches & markets in my big-odds notebook this weekend.
Plus, of course, do not forget to log-in to our website. Where you can view all our bet-specific stats for 17 leagues, and over 300 teams. Including extremely useful form tables and head-to-head comparisons. With Match Results, Goals, Corners, Cards, and Players, all covered:
Now for some weekend stats & speculations, from my viewpoint…
The Half Time/ Full Time markets have featured in this week’s analysis. Sheffield United coming from a goal down at half time to beat West Brom, 2-1, was the latest payout for a HT/ FT flip-flop. That one paid out at 25/1.
So far this season, five Premier League games have seen such a turnaround. Which is running below the season average, which suggests we could or should have seen nine by now.
Man Utd and West Brom have been involved in two each…
That could make this weekend’s games worthy of a look in the Half Time/ Full Time markets: Tottenham v West Brom, and Man Utd v Everton. In each case, a HT/ FT comeback for the home side is 20/1+. With the away-team reversals at 40/1 and bigger.
With Spurs on a 3-game losing streak, and West Brom battling to stay up. And Man Utd the No.1 team in the division for Win & Both Teams to Score results, and Everton No.2…
I’m taking the two HT/ FT routes in both games. If you’re joining me, take note of my two-year record for these selections.
This League One match could be fun. Our website has Rochdale ranked No.1 in the division for Over 2.5 Goals payouts this season, and No.2 for Both Teams to Score.
In recent weeks, the ‘Dale have been involved in some mightily entertaining and high-scoring games. These score-lines tell the story on their own: 1-2, 3-4, 2-2, 1-0, 3-3, 4-4, 3-3, 1-4, 0-5, 4-1.
Seven of those 10 games have paid out on Over 4.5 Goals. And that 4-4 draw was away at Charlton…
This Saturday, the two sides meet again, this time at Spotland. Charlton bring a bit of high-goals potential, too. With 7 of their last 15 games going Over 3.5 Goals. Including three 2-2 draws, a 5-2 win, and that 4-4 with Rochdale.
Take your pick…
The Correct Score market for this weekend’s game has plenty of enticing odds, if you fancy another goal-filled score draw here. For example, 2-2 is 12/1, 3-3 is 40/1. And another 4-4 thriller is 200/1 (225/1 with BetVictor).
In the Total Goals market, Over 2.5 Goals is 8/11 (1.73) in general, with Over 3.5 at 7/4 (2.75). I like 9/2 (5.5) for Rochdale to contribute to another crazy one, for Over 4.5 Goals.
Using the Form tables on our site, I’ve identified three teams this weekend that also look competitively-priced for the win:
In the Scottish Premiership, Livingston are unbeaten in 14 games in all comps, winning 11. They’re 29/20 (2.45) for the home win v St Johnstone.
In the English Championship, Brentford are on the prowl for automatic promotion to the Premier League. They’re unbeaten in 19 league games, winning 6 of their last 7. The away win at Middlesbrough – who have lost 3 of their last 5 – is 11/8 (2.38).
And in League One, Accrington Stanley are on the edge of the playoff places, with a couple of games in hand on most of their rivals. Stanley have won their last two home games, 2-0 and 6-1. Visitors Northampton have won just one of their last 9, losing 6. Accrington are 7/10 (1.7) to win.
The win treble pays just over 8/1.
From the analysis above, here are my picks for the weekend…
Tottenham v West Brom:
Man Utd v Everton:
Rochdale v Charlton:
Match Win Treble:
Enjoy the football…