Friday 1st October 2021

In Across the Leagues today:

• Hibs’ bright start…
• Boyle leading the way…
• Rangers v Hibernian…

Weekend Preview – underdog value in Scotland…

On July 28th, we noted that Hibernian had a decent-looking run of fixtures in the opening rounds of the new season. Avoiding the Old Firm of Rangers & Celtic for the first seven games of the campaign…

Well, those seven games have now passed, and Hibs have taken full advantage…

After finishing third in the Scottish Premiership last season, Jack Ross’ side have kicked on in the first couple of months of 2021/22. The Easter Road club are unbeaten, with a record of W4 D3 L0.

That 15-point tally puts Hibs joint-third in the current league table. Just a point behind champions Rangers, with matching goal difference (+7).

The Totals pages on our website also have Hibernian ranked in the top three in the Scottish Premiership for Goals Scored, Total Shots, and Shots on Target.

Boyle leading the way…

When I flagged up Hibs back in July, my angle was to get behind their striker, Martin Boyle for Scottish Premiership Top Goalscorer. The Australian went in the book at 50/1 & 40/1 Each Way. And he hasn’t disappointed…

Boyle’s blistering start to the season has seen him score a total of six goals in seven league games. That salvo puts him top of the fledgling top scorer chart, with his Top Goalscorer price chopped to single figures, 8/1 & 7/1.

Boyle has landed Anytime Scorer bets in six out of seven games. The only league match where he’s drawn a blank was in the 0-0 draw away at fellow unbeaten side, third-place Hearts.

Despite his superb scoring form, the bookmakers still look to be underestimating Martin Boyle in the match-by-match scorer markets. A point picked up on by Across the Leagues member, John B:

“Regarding Martin Boyle. I’ve started backing him since last week in the scottish league cup match his price then was 11/4 with betfair …. also at the weekend he was 7/4 (and scored the only goal). just thinking he’s overpriced considering his current form…”

I completely agree with John. And with Hibs travelling to Ibrox to take on Rangers this Sunday, we get the chance to back Boyle at bigger prices than in those two recent examples…

Rangers v Hibernian

In the Anytime Scorer market, Boyle can be backed at 3/1+ (4.0+) with a few firms. And double figures to score first – 11/1 with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 10/1 Betfred, Betway.

Hibernian are around 7/1 for the away win, with William Hill a top price 8/1. Rangers lost 1-0 at Slavia Prague in the Europa League on Thursday night, and finished with 10 men…

Last time Rangers lost in Europe – 0-2 v Lyon last month – Steven Gerrard’s side then drew 1-1 v Motherwell in their next Scottish Premiership outing.

Hibs have no such midweek European concerns, having gone out in the Europa League Conference qualifying rounds in August. Therefore, domestic matters are the full priority for Jack Ross and his team, who also face Rangers in the Scottish League Cup next month.

80/1 to break the 36-year grip…

Unlike Boyle’s top scorer price, which has been chopped considerably since the opening day (50/1 to 8/1). Hibernian’s price to win the league hasn’t changed much at all…

They were touching 100/1 in the summer, but more like 66/1 & 50/1 in general. Standout odds of 80/1 can be obtained today.

If Hibs get a result at Ibrox this weekend, then their league-winner price may well get clipped in a little. And as it is, the current odds look plenty big enough for us to get involved. A straight-up underdog bet to keep us entertained into the autumn & winter – and hopefully, into the spring, too…

Elsewhere, the bookies have Hibernian as favourites to win the league ‘Without Rangers & Celtic.’ Bet365 go 6/4 (2.5), with other firms 11/8 (2.38) and 5/4 (2.25).

All of which leads me to these three selections for this weekend:

Martin Boyle to score.

Hibernian Double Chance (Win or Draw) – eg. to avoid defeat at Rangers.

And the big Win Only price in the Outright Winner market…

Of course, it’s some ask to break the 36-year stranglehold of the Old Firm. Aberdeen were the last to do it, back in 1984/85. But as we saw just this week, when FC Sheriff won at 13-time Champions League winners Real Madrid – nothing is impossible…

TODAY’S PICKS

From the analysis above, here are my picks for today…

Scottish Premiership 2021/22 – Outright Winner:

• HIBERNIAN @ 80/1 BetVictor, 66/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral

Rangers v Hibernian (Sun 3pm):

• Double Chance – HIBERNIAN OR DRAW @ 9/4 (3.25) Bet365, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred

• Anytime Scorer – MARTIN BOYLE @ 16/5 (4.2) BetVictor, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred, Betway

I’ll be back next week. Have a good weekend. And enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues