Thursday 15th December 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• The Scottish Premiership returns…
• Top Performing Teams: Win & Both Teams to Score stats…
• Birmingham v Reading - 1st Card picks for Friday night…

Weekend Win & BTTS acca at 49/1…

I’ll be picking back up the World Cup coverage on Saturday and Sunday, with the third-place playoff followed by the final, Argentina v France.

On the domestic league front - weather permitting as always at this time of year - the Scottish Premiership resumes this weekend. Starting with Rangers v Hibernian tonight (Sky Sports, 8pm). That’s the first game in charge for new Rangers boss Michael Beale.

Hibs defender Marijan Cabraja is one to keep an eye on for a Card tonight. The defender is Hibernian’s joint-most-carded player this season. He’s in with the favourites to be Carded in this game though, as short as 11/10 (2.1) with Bet365 and Evens (2.0) at Boylesports. We can do better for prices in the English Championship on Friday night - see below.

Entertainment expected at Pittodrie…

Aberdeen v Celtic

Scottish Premiership, Sat 12.30pm - Sky Sports

The Saturday lunchtime TV game between Aberdeen and Celtic could be a high-scoring one. If both teams hit the ground running after the World Cup break, then this fixture could reignite its goalscoring form from last season:

• In 2021/22, Celtic played Aberdeen 3 times, winning with goals at both ends each time: 1-2, 2-1, and 2-3

• This season, Celtic are the no.1 team in the Scottish Premiership for Win & Both Teams to Score payouts (8). In fact, as the new Top Performing Teams tables on our website show, across all 17 leagues covered, only Real Madrid in La Liga have delivered more Win & BTTS payouts (9)

Add in the fact that two of the league’s 2022/23 current top scorers are likely to be on show at Pittodrie on Saturday…

Aberdeen’s Bojan Miovski has scored 11 goals, and 10 of them have come at home.

Celtic’s Kyogo Furuhashi may feel he has a point to prove after not being selected for Japan’s World Cup squad. He scored in two out of three Scottish Premiership appearances for Celtic last month.

This game is 3rd v 1st in the league table, and also 3rd v 1st on the Over 2.5 Goals standings on our website. Aberdeen have a 71% Over 2.5 Goals record at home, Celtic 88% away.

The Dons are also joint-1st in the division for Both Teams to Score results this season (60%), and have scored in all seven home games. Celtic have found the net in all but one of their 15 league outings overall.

Over 2.5 Goals is 1/2 (1.5) at best, and 4/9 (1.44) in general.

Both Teams to Score is also an odds-on favourite, at 4/6 (1.67).

At 17/10 (2.7) or 13/8 (2.63), CELTIC are going in as the first leg of a weekend Trixie in the Win & Both Teams to Score (Win & BTTS) market…

49/1 weekend Win & BTTS combo…

Plymouth v Morecambe

League One, Sat 3pm

In English League One, 2nd place PLYMOUTH have won nine out of 10 home games this season…

• 4 of Plymouth’s last 5 home victories have paid out on Win & BTTS, and the Pilgrims are the no.1 team in League One for this bet - with 4 of their 6 payouts coming at Home Park

• Opponents Morecambe are bottom of League One. The Shrimpers have managed to score in each of their last 5 games - but have registered just one win in 11

Plymouth to Win & Both Teams to Score is priced around 2/1 or just over (3.0+).

Northampton v Carlisle

League Two, Sat 3pm

In League Two, NORTHAMPTON are 3rd in the table and one of the favourites for automatic promotion. Four of the Cobblers’ last five wins have paid out with goals at both ends…

• Northampton are ranked no.1 in League Two for Win & BTTS payouts this season (8) - and also feature in our Top Performing Teams chart for this bet, ranked in the Top 20 teams across all 17 leagues covered in the stats on our website

• Northampton and Carlisle make a good fit on the Home v Away stats: Northampton have scored in 70% of home games, while keeping a clean sheet in just 20%. And it’s a matching record for Carlisle away

Northampton to Win & Both Teams to Score is around 9/2 or just over (5.5+).

The Win & Both Teams to Score treble on Celtic, Plymouth & Northampton - who are the three top-rated teams in their respective divisions in this category - pays 45/1+.

My recommendation here is a Trixie, which is made up of four lines: three doubles, and the treble. Any two gives a payout and a profit. With the full house providing the big prize.

Friday night Card contenders…

Last weekend we successfully targeted the Championship live TV game between QPR and Burnley, with Jack Cork landing the First Card at a standout 16/1. Well done to Across the Leagues member Ian C, who emailed in to say he accidentally backed that Cork bet twice (!).

Cork is now on eight yellow cards for Burnley. Putting him level with two other players in the Championship this season: Alex Scott of Bristol City, and Dion Sanderson of Birmingham City. While the former is in with the favourites to be carded at home to Stoke on Saturday, Sanderson stands out at a nice price with several bookies getting involved for the Friday night TV game at St Andrew’s…

Birmingham City v Reading

Championship, Fri 8pm - Sky Sports

The Sky Sports cameras will be here for this one. And that means we can expect a decent range of markets and prices to work with in the Player Card markets…

Dion Sanderson (fun fact: he’s the nephew of former olympic javelin star Tessa Sanderson) is Birmingham’s most-carded player this season.

• The 22-year-old central defender, on-loan from Wolves, has been booked in 2 of his last 4 games, and in 6 of his last 13 - with one First Card payout in that time

Key stat:

• A Birmingham player has got the First Card in 8 of the Blues’ last 10 league games

Along with Sanderson, another young on-loan player from the Premier League, Hannibal Mejbri (Manchester United), has also been putting himself about a bit…

Despite only making nine league starts for Birmingham, the 19-year-old midfielder is the Blues’ second-most-carded player this term:

• Mejbri has been booked in 3 of his last 6 Championship starts - and also landed First Card bets in all 3 of those games

The teenager has received a yellow card in each of his last two outings for Brum, coming either side of a World Cup substitute appearance for Tunisia.

The stats and prices make those two Birmingham youngsters worthy of support in the Card markets for Friday night’s match against Reading…

Sanderson is 10/3 (4.33) for a Card, with Mejbri at a top price of 3/1 (4.0). And I’d split a stake between the two for the First Card, with BetVictor once again dangling the standout prices: 21/1 for Sanderson and 18/1 for Mejbri.

Birmingham’s most-carded players:

Log-in to view all our League, Team and Player stats at:

www.acrosstheleagues.co.uk

As well as the bookies listed below. Firms that tend to offer Player Card/ Bookings bets and are worth checking with in the next 24 hours include:

William Hill
Skybet
Boylesports
Unibet
10Bet & LiveScoreBet
888 Sport
Betfred
Betway
SpreadEx
Sporting Index Fixed Odds

Different bookies call these markets by different names. For example, ‘Anytime Carded Player’ at BetVictor and ‘Player to be Shown a Card’ at Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook are the same as ‘Player to be Booked’ with Bet365.

TODAY’S PICKS

Birmingham v Reading:

• Player to be Booked (Carded): Dion Sanderson @ 10/3 (4.33) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 16/5 (4.2) BetVictor

• Player to be Booked (Carded): Hannibal Mejbri @ 3/1 (4.0) Bet365, 29/10 (3.9) BetVictor, 2/1 (3.0) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

• 1st Carded Player: Dion Sanderson best price 21/1 BetVictor. AND Hannibal Mejbri best price 18/1 BetVictor

Three games as listed above:

• TRIXIE. Win & Both Teams to Score: Celtic, Plymouth & Northampton - best prices Bet365 (49/1 the treble), William Hill (47/1), Skybet (46/1), BetVictor (45/1)

I’ll be back on Saturday, by 12 noon, with your next World Cup email…

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues