Thursday 1st December 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• 4 games today – 3pm and 7pm…
• Unfinished business for Croatia…
• Discipline next to go for Belgium…

World Cup - Day 12

Push the reset button at 66/1…

I’m willing to admit when I’m wrong. And it’s looking that way with Belgium.

Pre-tournament, in my eyes, odds of 18/1 had potential to prove value about the World Cup 2018 semi-finalists. At Euro 2020, the men in red went off at just 6/1. But so far, with two games played, Roberto Martinez’s world no.2-ranked side have been poor, and that’s putting it politely.

I like to think that if I ever got the chance to play in a World Cup, I’d show a bit more verve and zest than what we’ve seen from the Belgians so far (ditto for Denmark yesterday). Especially if I was as talented as someone like Eden Hazard…

The ‘too old’ argument has come to the fore in the media. But the average age of both the Brazil and Argentina squads is greater than Belgium’s - and those South American teams are looking alright.

Perhaps it’s a mentality issue, then. And if that is the case, then it doesn’t bode well for today’s must-win match against Croatia…

Unfinished business…

If we’re talking about tournament mentality in a positive way, then suddenly, ‘age’ becomes ‘experience’ when it comes to the Croatians. Driven by World Cup 2018 Golden Ball winner, the now 37-year-old Luka Modric. The perennial dark horses are once again on the underdog radar, here at Qatar 2022…

Croatia is a nation that, since being formed in 1991, has consistently been able to punch above its weight on the International stage. Bursting onto the scene with Davor Suker & co at Euro ‘96, reaching the quarter finals. Then reaching the World Cup semis in 1998. Before going one better and making the World Cup final last time out, at Russia 2018, finishing runner-up.

Six years ago, I backed Croatia at big odds for Euro 2016, mapping out the draw with a potential route to the final that was taken by the eventual champions...

The men in the chequered shirts were ‘knocked out 0-0,’ as I like to recall the story - squeezed out by Portugal in the Last 16 knockout round. Three minutes away from a penalty shootout, Portugal nicked it in extra time… and went on to win the tournament.

At World Cup 2018, Croatia went off at 50/1 and 40/1. At those kinds of tournament prices, Each Way terms of half the odds for 1-2 places reward reaching the final. And right now, here at the World Cup 2022, Croatia make some Each Way outsider appeal at 66/1 and 50/1.

If Belgium do go home today, then having Croatia in the book will give us a team on our side for the trophy, at a very big price. And with the potential route to the final taking in re-matches with Portugal, and 2018 victors France, the Croatia & Modric story may yet overtake the Argentina & Messi narrative - with ‘last dance’ being the en-vogue phrase for describing Lionel Messi’s final attempt to win the World Cup.

With the (so far) mightily disappointing Belgium situation in mind, I’m pushing the reset button today, and backing Croatia to give us an exciting long-shot interest in the Outright Winner market.

Corners update…

Three out of four games went Under 10.5 Corners yesterday. We were one game away from landing our Wednesday acca, but the trend remains:

• 19 of the last 24 games have paid out on Under 10.5 Corners and Under 11 Corners

But perhaps the stronger theme in these final group games is to put flag-kick faith in the team that needs the points…

As illustrated yesterday, with Argentina winning the Most Corners by a mile, 9-1 v Poland. And Mexico racking up an 8-1 corners score against Saudi Arabia. Along with Denmark covering -2 and -3 Corner Handicaps with a 6-2 flag-kick tally v Australia.

Let’s take a look at today’s matches…

• For group qualification who-needs-what permutations, the BBC website has a good explainer here 

Canada v Morocco

Group F
3pm, BBC Two

Match odds: Canada 7/2 (4.5), Draw 5/2 (3.5), Morocco 17/20 (1.85)

My prediction: 2-2
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Morocco 2-1

The fact that Morocco only need a draw to qualify - which would be a huge achievement for them - and Canada are already out, makes this one hard to call from a betting perspective. Morocco have only won one corner kick in the tournament so far, so backing them at odds-on to win the Most Corners doesn’t hold too much sway for me.

Croatia v Belgium

Group F
3pm, BBC One

Match odds: Croatia 13/8 (2.63), Draw 12/5 (3.4), Belgium 7/4 (2.75)

My prediction: 1-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Croatia 3-1

As discussed above, we’re adding Croatia to our tournament book today. If they get the draw or win they need to qualify this afternoon, then 66/1 & 50/1 could end up being a good ticket for us in the knockouts.

If this is where the campaign ends for Belgium, then their discipline could be the next thing to go. If they do turn up and make a match of it, then a bit of fighting spirit could also result in cards. Either way, let’s back a couple of Belgian names to go in the referee’s book - at good prices…

Kevin De Bruyne cut a frustrated figure in the first two games, and he’s been prone to picking up bookings in big games before - for example, for Man City, yellow-carded three times in the previous two seasons against PSG in the Champions League.

Right-back Thomas Meunier has been reckless at times so far, and the 31-year-old could get himself in trouble with some more petty fouling or over-zealous tackles today. He was booked in the opening match v Canada.

In their Player to be Booked market, Bet365 have standout odds of 6/1 and 9/2 respectively.

• For even bigger prices, you might also want to lookout for those players in the First Card market

Japan v Spain

Group E
7pm, ITV1

Match odds: Japan 15/2 (8.5), Draw 7/2 (4.5), Spain 2/5 (1.4)

My prediction: Spain 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Spain 2-1

All four teams can still qualify from this group, but Spain have the upper hand as the only team on four points. After shocking Germany in their opener, but then losing to Costa Rica in game two, Japan could be fading in a similar way to Saudi Arabia, who crashed out last night.

Luis Enrique tends to chop and change his attackers - depending on who gets the most game-time, Ferran Torres and Alvaro Morata are the two to look out for in the Scorer markets.

I’m going to the well again with the Corner Handicap here. Spain have won the Most Corners in both games so far, including a 5-0 tally against Costa Rica. Their possession-heavy game can see the Spanish beat the -3 Corner Handicap in this one (winning 4+ corners more than Japan).

Costa Rica v Germany

Group E
7pm, ITV4

Match odds: Costa Rica 28/1 (29.0), Draw 10/1 (11.0), Germany 1/10 (1.1)

My prediction: Germany 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Germany 4-0

Germany know they need to win, and ideally to win well. The prices are very short here, across the board. With the Germans just 1/10 (1.1) to win the game, and just 3/10 (1.3) to win by more than one goal (-1 Match Handicap).

Costa Rica are yet to win a single corner kick in this tournament (5-0 and 5-0). However, all value looks to have been sucked out of the Corner Handicap market, with the bookies putting up Germany with a prohibitive -6 Corner Handicap to overcome. Do-able - but not a standout bet for me today.

Elsewhere, Germany’s teenage star Jamal Musiala is the Man of the Match favourite, 7/4 (2.75) at Bet365. And maybe this will be the game where my man Serge Gnabry finally gets off the mark.

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

• Croatia @ 66/1 Skybet, BetVictor, Unibet, 50/1 general 

Croatia v Belgium:

• Player to be Booked (Carded): Kevin De Bruyne @ 6/1 (7.0) Bet365, 11/2 (6.5) Betfred, Unibet, 5/1 (6.0) Boylesports, 9/2 (5.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 4/1 (5.0) Skybet, Betway, 10Bet
• Player to be Booked (Carded): Thomas Meunier @ 9/2 (5.5) Bet365, 7/2 (4.5) Betfred, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 3/1 (4.0) Boylesports, 11/4 (3.75) Unibet, Betway, 5/2 (3.5) Skybet, 10Bet

Japan v Spain:

• Spain -3 Corner Handicap @ 6/4 (2.5) Boylesports, 7/5 (2.4) Betway, 11/8 (2.38) BetVictor, 5/4 (2.25) Bet365, 6/5 (2.2) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

I’ll see you tomorrow, with four games on the Friday schedule, and the first kick-off at 3pm. Lookout for your World Cup email every matchday at 12 noon, and posted on the email archive just after.

P.S
We’ll also be taking a look at the weekend English League One & League Two fixtures, with some standout stats from our website.

• Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues