Saturday 3rd December 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• Last 16 knockouts start today…
• Netherlands v USA, 3pm…
• Argentina v Australia, 7pm…

World Cup - Day 14

Americans to make a fast start…

The Cards stats went our way yesterday, and it sure felt good to get a couple of winners, after what’s been a tough opening fortnight. The knockouts start now though, and there’s lots to look forward to…

On the Corners front, South Korea continued their strong form on Friday, winning the Most Corners against Portugal (5-4), at underdog prices.

While Brazil showed how dominant a favourite can be in this department, with an 11-3 corners score v Cameroon; enough to cover anything up to a -7 Corner Handicap. The biggest pre-match Corner Handicap I’ve seen so far at this tournament was Germany, chalked up at -6 corners v Costa Rica… and they whipped it, 14-1.

In the Total Corners trend that we’ve been tracking, the ‘Under’ option continues to lead the way:

• 25 of the last 32 games have paid out on Under 10.5 Corners and Under 11 Corners

Notes for the Knockouts…

The Last 16 action kicks-off this afternoon with Netherlands v USA at 3pm, followed by Argentina v Australia at 7pm.

Will the shocks continue? Or will the European and South American giants get a grip on the competition? Given what we’ve seen over the last few days, we can expect these games to provide plenty of entertainment…

And now that we’re into the knockout rounds, remember that one market to look out for is the ‘Method of Victory’ or ‘How will the match be won?’. Extra Time and Penalty options generally pay double-figure prices, 10/1 and 14/1 or so. Which can beat the price of the normal-time draw - if you catch the right team to go through.

Also to note from now on: pre-match stats markets such as Cards and Corners are settled by the normal-time result only. Eg. extra time doesn’t count. The same goes for Scorers.

And on that topic, cards given to players ‘not on the pitch’ don’t count for betting purposes (same for cards shown to managers and coaching staff). For example, we got the Over 4.5 Cards payouts in both the Ghana-Uruguay and Serbia-Switzerland games yesterday. But the official scoreboards also include a couple of additional cards that went to subs who were still on the bench, and/ or players that lost the plot after the full-time whistle.

We should also lookout for comebacks and Half Time/ Full Time turnarounds. As discussed in recent emails, the HT/ FT market has already paid out at huge prices on a few occasions. Well done to Across the Leagues member Eric J who emailed in to say he got 94/1 on Betfair for the Spain/ Japan flip-flop this week!

Again, the ‘Come From Behind’ and HT/ FT markets apply to normal-time only.

Here we go then. Let the knockouts begin…

Netherlands v USA

3pm, BBC One

Match odds: Netherlands Evens (2.0), Draw 23/10 (3.3), USA 10/3 (4.33)

To Qualify: Netherlands 1/2 (1.5), USA 7/4 (2.75)

My prediction: 1-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Netherlands 2-1

I’ve got this one down as a potential upset - a match that could go the distance…

USA will believe they can do it. Netherlands have been getting results so far, but haven’t been spectacular.

In term of a straight-up match winner or To Qualify bet, I would’ve hoped for bigger odds on the shock. But we can find nice prices elsewhere in this one…

Breakout star Cody Gakpo could become the first Dutch player to score in four successive games at a World Cup. Bet365 make him 10/3 (4.33) to do it, but he’s shorter everywhere else.

For USA, Christian Pulisic is the main man, named Player of the Match in two of their three group games, and scoring the goal that put them through against Iran. He’s been an injury doubt for today’s game, but they’ve declared him fit to play. Odds of 9/2 (5.5) and 4/1 (5.0) to score look a bit of value.

Gakpo and Pulisic are the favourites - in that order - in Bet365’s Man of the Match market, which pays out on the official FIFA/ Budweiser Player of the Match.

We had a Corner Handicap winner on USA against Iran last time out, and the stars & stripes have won the Most Corners in all three games so far. That’s indicative of the Americans’ high-energy game, and they could catch out the Dutch in that department today…

USA are an underdog for the Most Corners. And can also be backed Evens+ (2.0+) for the First Corner, a bet that they’ve landed in two out of three games so far.

The Dutch only got the first corner in one of their group games, and that was against an already down-and-out Qatar. The First Corner bet is the one I like here, ahead of the 90-minutes Corners Match Bet. As depending on the scoreboard, Netherlands could end up racking up several corners late on.

A fast start for the Americans here, and we could have a real game on our hands.

Argentina v Australia

7pm, BBC One

Match odds: Argentina 1/4 (1.25), Draw 5/1 (6.0), Australia 14/1 (15.0)

To Qualify: Argentina 1/9 (1.11), Australia 8/1 (9.0)

My prediction: Argentina 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Argentina 5-0

Looking at those prices, it really would be a World Cup shock if Australia could come through this one.

There’s a sense that Argentina had their blip on matchday one, losing 2-1 to Saudi Arabia, after being 1-0 up at half time. Lionel Messi & co had their game-face on last time out, utterly dominant in a 2-0 victory against Poland. The corners tally in that one was 9-1 to Argentina, and they’ve won the Most Corners in every game so far.

Australia have been out-cornered three times out of three at this tournament, including an 8-1 flag-kick drubbing in a 4-1 defeat to France. The men from Down Under will probably have to park the bus this evening, and could end up being hemmed-in to their own half, or even their own penalty box…

Argentina -4 Corner Handicap is the bet, paying out if they win 5+ corners more than Australia.

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

Netherlands v USA

• Anytime Scorer: Christian Pulisic @ 9/2 (5.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, 10Bet, LiveScoreBet, 4/1 (5.0) Bet365 
• First Corner in the Match: USA @ 11/10 (2.1) Bet365, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, 21/20 (2.05) William Hill, Evens (2.0) Boylesports. ‘Next Corner’ markets will also be available in-play from kick-off

Argentina v Australia

• Argentina -4 Corner Handicap @ 23/20 (2.15) Boylesports, 21/20 (2.05) Betway, 10/11 (1.91) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Or Argentina -4.5 Asian Handicap Corners @ 4/5 (1.8) Bet365 

I’ll see you tomorrow, with two games on the Sunday schedule as the Last 16 knockout rounds continue. Kick-off times are 3pm and 7pm. Lookout for your World Cup email every matchday at 12 noon, and posted on the email archive just after.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues