Monday 5th December 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• Last 16 knockout games today…
• Japan v Croatia, 3pm…
• Brazil v South Korea, 7pm…

World Cup - Day 16

Croatia, Casemiro, and Corners…

Matty Cash had a good game for Poland yesterday. But the French pressure eventually told, and he landed the Player to be Carded odds for us in the 88th minute. I’m assuming a few of you took the 4/1 at Betfred, as it was down to 2/1 by kick-off. There have been a few decent prices around in the Cards markets, and we’ll look out for more to come.

Harry Kane got off the mark with his first goal of the tournament. The 66/1 top scorer price that I mentioned yesterday soon went - now 40/1 and 33/1. But leading man Kylian Mbappe accelerated away at the top of the scorer chart anyway, bagging two more. Mbappe is two goals clear in the Golden Boot race, and has a couple of assists to his name, too.

Both Mbappe and Kane won the official Player of the Match awards yesterday. It’s a shame that only one bookie is offering markets on this (Man of the Match at Bet365), as the cream-rises-to-the-top theory is largely dominating these public-voted awards.

Both of Sunday’s games paid out on the low corners options. The trend continues. Bookies have been a bit prohibitive with their pricing. But these are certainly producing a good strike-rate:

• 29 of the last 36 games have paid out on Under 10.5 Corners and Under 11 Corners bets (80% since 25th Nov) 
• And 10 of the last 12 games have also paid out on the lower Under 9.5 Corners and Under 10 Corners options

Also, so far in the knockout stage:

• All 4 games have paid out on Over 2.5 Goals

We’re yet to see a match decided in extra time or by penalty shootout.

The Last 16 knockouts continue today…

Japan v Croatia

3pm, BBC One

Match odds: Japan 3/1 (4.0), Draw 12/5 (3.4), Croatia Evens (2.0)

To Qualify: Japan 13/8 (2.63), Croatia 1/2 (1.5)

My prediction: Croatia 2-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Japan 2-1 AET (After Extra Time)

So far in the knockouts, all four Last 16 ties have been won by the favourite, in normal time. I’d be happy for that pattern to continue in this afternoon’s match, seeing as we’re on Croatia as tournament outsiders at 66/1 Each Way. The European side go off as the odds-on favourites to reach the quarter finals today.

Japan will have other ideas of course, and after coming from behind at half time to beat both Germany and Spain in the group stage, this one could go to the wire.

In this morning’s Outright Winner betting, Croatia are now 40/1 at best for the trophy (Unibet), and 33/1 in general. Japan are 66/1 across the board, with Unibet again a top price, at 75/1.

If the favourites go through in today’s matches, then it'll be Croatia & Brazil in the quarter final from this section of the draw. If the underdogs both prevail, then it’ll be Japan & South Korea competing for a place in the semis. What a story that would be.

In terms of the matchday markets for Japan v Croatia, I’m focusing on the corners:

• 5 of the 6 games played by these teams at this tournament have paid out on Under 10.5, Under 9.5, and Under 8.5 Total Corners. That includes all 3 Croatia games

Under 8.5 Corners is the main line put up by the bookies today, at around 5/6 (1.83). You can’t argue with the stats behind this one, but that is lower than a ‘usual’ low-corners bet. And what worries me is if the game gets stretched with one team needing a goal, then the tally could spill over.

A form-line that I’m more comfortable to follow is Croatia for the Most Corners. They landed that bet in their first two games (5-0 corners v Morocco, 6-2 v Canada). And knew they only needed a draw when facing Belgium in the final group game, whereas Belgium needed to win (full time 0-0, corners Belgium 4-2).

Japan won the Corners Match Bet against Costa Rica, but we shouldn’t read too much into that as Costa Rica only won one corner kick in total across their three games (conceding 24). These possession figures paint a more telling picture:

• Japan only had 18% Possession against Spain, and 26% v Germany. The fact that they managed to win both games, 2-1, from a goal down, is remarkable…

Japan have conceded in all three games so far, while the Croatian defence has only been successfully breached once - going a goal down early to Canada, before roaring back to win 4-1.

I like Croatia for the Most Corners here (called Corners Match Bet with some firms, and Full Time Corners Win with Betway). With odds of 8/11 (1.73) better than I was anticipating for the pre-match favourites, who are expected to dominate possession.

Other points of note:

• Luka Modric has won Player of the Match in 2 out of 3 games so far - with both those games being 0-0 draws. He’s the 5/4 (2.25) favourite at Bet365 (Man of the Match market)
• Striker Andrej Kramaric got Player of the Match in Croatia’s other game, scoring twice in the 4-1 win v Canada. He’s 6/1 (7.0) second favourite today. And 12/5 (3.4) to score

Brazil v South Korea

7pm, ITV1

Match odds: Brazil 1/4 (1.25), Draw 5/1 (6.0), South Korea 12/1 (13.0)

To Qualify: Brazil 1/9 (1.11), South Korea 6/1 (7.0)

My prediction: Brazil 2-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Brazil 2-0

Neymar is due back from injury for Brazil, and has gone straight into the betting as Bet365’s 6/5 (2.2) favourite for Man of the Match, and no better than 11/10 (2.1) to score his first goal of the campaign.

I’m angling for something more speculative here, at much bigger odds…

Holding the midfield for Brazil, our long-shot Golden Ball pick Carlos Casemiro can still be backed at 50/1 with Bet365 and Betway (Player of the Tournament). Elsewhere, Ladbrokes & Coral are now as short as 16/1. In the betting for this game, he’s 12/1 for Man of the Match - and top prices of 15/2 (8.5) and 7/1 (8.0) to score…

Goals aren’t the first thing to spring to mind for defensive midfielders. But bear with me…

Casemiro got the winner for Brazil against Switzerland with a fine strike. And headed a late equaliser for Manchester United at Chelsea a few weeks back. Two goals from his last eight starts represents something of a goal-rush for a man who before that had gone 24 appearances in all competitions without a goal…

Brazil haven’t blown anyone away yet - with all three games going Under 2.5 Goals. And if South Korea do hold out for long periods, or threaten to pull off the shock here, then it could be a long-distance effort or a header from a set piece that gets the favourites the decisive breakthrough tonight.

Brazil have been winning plenty of corners, bossing the corner-count 11-3 and 8-3 in their last two games. And when they met South Korea in an International Friendly in June of this year, the South Americans won the game 5-1, and smashed the corners, 9-0.

The likes of Casemiro and centre-back Marquinhos will go up for corners when they get them…

Brazil -3 Corner Handicap is my stats selection at around Even Money (2.0). With Casemiro Anytime Scorer as an outside bet.

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

Japan v Croatia

• Most Corners: Croatia @ 3/4 (1.75) Betway, 8/11 (1.73) Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports (Croatia -0.5 Corner Handicap), 10Bet (market called 1X2 Corners). Corners bets also available with William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet

Brazil v South Korea

• Brazil -3 Corner Handicap @ 11/10 (2.1) Boylesports, 21/20 (2.05) Betway, BetVictor, Evens (2.0) Bet365. Corner Handicap markets also available with William Hill, Unibet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 10Bet
• Anytime Scorer: Casemiro @ 15/2 (8.5) Unibet, 7/1 (8.0) Bet365, 13/2 (7.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

I’ll see you tomorrow, with two more knockout games on the Tuesday schedule. Kick-off times are 3pm and 7pm. Lookout for your World Cup email every matchday at 12 noon, and posted on the email archive just after.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues