Tuesday 6th December 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• Last 16 knockout games today…
• Morocco v Spain, 3pm…
• Portugal v Switzerland, 7pm…

World Cup - Day 17

Spanish long-shot value at 50/1…

Will we see a shock today?

So far, six out of six Knockout ties have seen the favourite prevail.

Five of those six have won in normal time. With the other seeing our 66/1 tournament outsiders Croatia get past Japan on penalties.

Four of those games saw the pre-match favourite win by more than one goal. Brazil’s 4-1 demolition of South Korea being the latest of those. I reckon today’s matches could be a lot closer than that - see below.

Brazil were scoring for fun in the first half last night, but our midfield man Casemiro didn’t get on the scoresheet, although he did try his luck from range.

Both of Monday’s games ended on exactly 9 Total Corners (Extra Time doesn’t count). So the low-corners trend rolled on, with the strike-rate now looking like this:

• 31 of the last 38 games have paid out on Under 10.5 Corners and Under 11 Corners bets (82% since 25th Nov) 
• And 12 of the last 14 games have also paid out on the lower Under 9.5 Corners and Under 10 Corners options

A double on Under 9.5 Corners in both of today’s games pays around 8/5 (2.6). And considering Switzerland’s last game only produced 2 corner kicks, with the same total in Spain’s final group game. This low-corners trend is well worth following.

The Last 16 knockouts conclude today, with two quarter-final spots to be decided…

Morocco v Spain

3pm, ITV1

Match odds: Morocco 6/1 (7.0), Draw 16/5 (4.2), Spain 8/15 (1.53)

To Qualify: Morocco 10/3 (4.33), Spain 2/9 (1.22)

My prediction: 1-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Spain 1-0

I want to be on the side of some underdog prices in both games today. At Russia 2018, Morocco gave Spain a scare in a 2-2 group-stage draw. The North African team have shown their credentials here in Qatar too, beating a listless Belgium, and going on to win their group, having also held Croatia to a goalless draw.

The likes of Hakim ‘the wizard’ Ziyech can pose a threat to the Spanish, especially if Morocco can get some set pieces into dangerous positions in the box, as they did against Belgium.

For Spain, it’s again a toss-up between Alvaro Morata and Ferran Torres in terms of the Scorer betting. Morata is winning so far, by one goal. Although Torres may be given penalty duty ahead of him.

We landed on a winner by consulting the official team & player stats on the FIFA World Cup website on Sunday, with Matty Cash’s ‘Most Sprints’ stats helping identify him as a man to back in a foot-race battle with France’s speedy attack, namely Kylian Mbappe. Today, there’s a Spanish forward who catches the eye as a long-shot selection in the Player to be Carded market…

Dani Olmo is a bit of an unsung hero in this Spanish team. The 24-year-old has played every minute of all three games so far. And his stats show that he puts a lot of hard yards in.

Olmo is ranked Spain’s no.1 player at this tournament for Most Crosses, and Most Attempts at Goal.

He’s also top-rated for Most Sprints, Most Defensive Pressures Applied, AND Most Receptions Between Midfield and Defensive Line. In other words, this guy gets about on the pitch. He puts a shift in.

The RB Leipzig man opened the scoring in Spain’s 7-0 win over Costa Rica on matchday one. Bet365 have Dani Olmo at 11/4 (3.75) to score today, and 5/1 (6.0) for Man of the Match.

But for much bigger prices, with those energetic ‘pressures’ and ‘receptions’ stats in mind, standout odds of 16/1 To be Booked and 50/1 to be the 1st Player Booked really catch the eye. There’s long-shot potential here. Those top prices are with Bet365.

Portugal v Switzerland

7pm, ITV1

Match odds: Portugal 17/20 (1.85), Draw 5/2 (3.5), Switzerland 7/2 (4.5)

To Qualify: Portugal 2/5 (1.4), Switzerland 2/1 (3.0)

My prediction: 1-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 1-1 (with Switzerland to win on Penalties)

I also have a Player to be Carded pick here. Swiss centre-back Fabian Schar has received a yellow card in his last two appearances against Portugal, most recently in the UEFA Nations League in June.

At the World Cup 2018, Schar got two bookings in the group stage, incurring a suspension that kept him out of the Last 16 match. So far here at Qatar 2022, the Newcastle defender has got one booking to his name, coming last time out against Serbia in Switzerland’s feisty final group match. Things could get ugly in this one, too. Another card would mean missing the quarter final if the Swiss get through - but it’s win at all costs now…

Odds of 3/1 (4.0) for Schar to be Carded make for a decent bet.

And with the whiff of an upset or a go-the-distance encounter on our hands this evening, I’m following the match predictions and going with the Draw at 5/2 (3.5). This one could turn into a war of attrition.

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

Morocco v Spain
Portugal v Switzerland

• DOUBLE. Under 9.5 Corners (or Under 10 Corners) in both games @ 8/5 (2.6) Betway, Unibet. Markets also available with Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, 10Bet

Morocco v Spain

• Player to be Booked (Carded): Dani Olmo @ 16/1 Bet365. Best elsewhere: 8/1 (9.0) BetVictor, 7/1 (8.0) Unibet, Boylesports, 13/2 (7.5) Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 6/1 (7.0) William Hill
• 1st Player to be Booked (Carded): Dani Olmo @ 50/1 Bet365. Best elsewhere: 28/1 William Hill, Betfred, 25/1 Skybet, BetVictor

Portugal v Switzerland

• Match Result: Draw @ 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, Skybet, Betfred, 12/5 (3.4) in general
• Player to be Booked (Carded): Fabian Schar @ 3/1 (4.0) Bet365, Unibet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook. Markets also available with Skybet, Betfred, BetVictor, William Hill, Boylesports, Betway, SpreadEx, 10Bet, Sporting Index Fixed Odds

The quarter finals take place on Friday and Saturday. Lookout for your next World Cup matchday email by 12 noon on Friday, and posted on the email archive just after.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues