Tuesday 13th December 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• Semi Finals…
• Argentina v Croatia, 7pm…
• Preview, predictions & picks…

World Cup - Day 20

Gloves of glory at 50/1…

Some good mail has landed in the Across the Leagues inbox over the last few days…

France Correct Score winner (but don’t broadcast it)...

John B writes in to say he followed the predictions and landed the 2-2 Correct Score for Netherlands v Argentina. Followed by France to beat England by the 2-1 score (while having to keep quiet about it in the pub…).

Stick or twist with Croatia…?

Rich has got £5 Each Way on our 66/1 picks Croatia, and Paul has £20 stakes riding on that one. Rich asks what I think about any hedging options for that tournament bet today, with Croatia one step away from securing the place part of that 66/1 Each Way bet, at half the odds. My reply is as follows:

• Semi-final opponents Argentina are 2/5 (1.4) To Qualify for the final. Being the favourites, that makes it hard for us to hedge or place a saver bet without giving up a huge chunk. For example, 10 points on Argentina to reach the final at 2/5 would return just 4 pts profit, eg. covering the original 1-pt EW stake, with 2 pts profit on top
• It's up to you whether you want to protect your initial stake on Croatia, or let it ride. I’m inclined to stick with Croatia, given the somewhat prohibitive prices for Argentina

Amrabat could scoop the votes…

Hendrawan asks:

“What's your thought on Sofyan Amrabat winning the golden ball? He probably has the vote of all african sport journalists and muslim journalists”

That’s a good question, and an interesting angle. Sofyan Amrabat has been a standout performer in midfield for Morocco, who have been the tournament’s 300/1 surprise package.

The Golden Ball (Player of the Tournament) winner is decided by a selection of media representatives, from a shortlist of players produced by a FIFA technical committee.

Here are my thoughts…

Given the heavy Lionel Messi/ Kylian Mbappe favouritism regarding Argentina and France, respectively, I think it would probably take Morocco getting to the final for Amarabat to be fully in the running. Which could happen, of course. Especially with the pattern of shocks that we’ve seen in this tournament.

There’s a difference in price with the bookies, too, which is potentially interesting… as I write this morning, Amrabat is 66/1 with Betway, 40/1 BetVictor, but as short as 20/1 with Bet365 and Skybet.

We can take a look at some of Morocco’s other standout players tomorrow. For example, goalkeeper Yassine ‘Bono’ Bounou has been named official Player of the Match in the last two rounds, keeping clean sheets against both Spain and Portugal.

And on the goalkeeper front, it’s the Croatian no.1 that gets my attention today…

Gloves of glory…

Croatian goalie Dominik Livakovic has also won Player of the Match in both knockout ties so far. Stealing the show with multiple penalty saves across penalty shootout wins over both Japan and Brazil. Along with a string of fine saves during the matches themselves, too.

The 27-year-old Dinamo Zagreb goalkeeper is the current favourite for the FIFA World Cup Golden Glove award, at 7/4 (2.75). Just ahead of Bono of Morocco at 2/1 (3.0).

Remember that Italy’s penalty-shootout hero Gianluigi Donnarumma won the overall Player of the Tournament award at Euro 2020. I reckon the penalty saves already posted by Livakovic put him in a good position for the goalie-specific ‘Glove’ award here in Qatar. And another star performance in the semi final this evening could see the Croatian player catapulted from outsider status to a genuine contender for the full Golden Ball award…

Odds of 50/1 certainly make that underdog angle worth a look today. I say let’s take Livakovic for both awards. He could prove a ‘shoe-in’ for the Golden Glove… and the available 50/1 & 40/1 looks attractive for the Golden Ball.

• Also of note: Bet365 are the only bookie offering a Man of the Match market for today’s game. Livakovic is 10/1 to make it 3 in a row (pays out on the official FIFA Player of the Match award, announced here after the final whistle)

Argentina v Croatia

7pm, ITV1

Match odds: Argentina 10/11 (1.91), Draw 23/10 (3.3), Croatia 4/1 (5.0)

To Qualify: Argentina 2/5 (1.4), Croatia 2/1 (3.0)

My prediction: 1-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Argentina 1-0

As promised, I’m returning to the Player Cards markets for this game…

After the messy, record-breaking card-fest that was Netherlands v Argentina in the quarter finals, any number of Argentina players could be in the running for a card today. Emotions will continue to run high, that’s for sure.

Add in the fact that Italian referee Daniele Orsato has shown 5 Cards and 6 Cards in his two outings so far at this tournament, and Bet365’s Over 4.5 Cards line looks fair enough at 11/10 (2.1). Although to counter that, it’s also worth noting that three of the last four World Cup semi finals have gone Under that 4.5 line. Maybe instructions from above are to avoid anyone getting sent off and then missing the final…

One angle I do like here is to back Argentina left-back Nicolas Tagliafico. The South Americans have both full-backs suspended after that Netherlands clash, and Tagliafico is the man set to replace the double-yellow-carded Marcos Acuna at left-back.

Before jetting off to Qatar, Tagliafico was booked in two of his last seven games for Lyon. More significantly, he’s going to likely end up in a few foot-races with the impressive and speedy attacking full-back Josip Juranovic, who was a revelation down the right wing for Croatia in the last round - at one stage catching up with and overtaking Brazilian speedster Vinicius Junior. Juranovic can cause Tagliafico problems today.

I want to be on a Croatian card contender, too. And the man to carry the cash at a decent price is Dejan Lovren, who was my pick last time out, and has been a reliable card collector over the years. Lovren has been playing well, but keeping your nose clean against the Argentinean forwards - who will try every trick in the book, dirty or otherwise - is a big ask in a game of this magnitude.

Tagliafico and Lovren are the picks in the Player to be Carded markets. With a split stake on them in the First Card market, where they are each available at double-figure prices.

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

FIFA Golden Glove (Goalkeeper of the Tournament):

• Dominik Livakovic @ 7/4 (2.75) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 13/8 (2.63) Boylesports, 6/4 (2.5) Bet365, William Hill, Betway, 10Bet, LiveScoreBet

FIFA Golden Ball (Player of the Tournament):

• Dominik Livakovic @ 50/1 Bet365, BetVictor, Unibet, 40/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet, Betway

Argentina v Croatia:

• Player to be Booked (Carded): Nicolas Tagliafico @ 4/1 (5.0) Bet365, 7/2 (4.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Unibet, Boylesports, 10/3 (4.33) Skybet, Betfred, 16/5 (4.2) SpreadEx, 3/1 (4.0) Betway
• Player to be Booked (Carded): Dejan Lovren @ 5/2 (3.5) Bet365, Betfred, Unibet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betway, SpreadEx, 9/4 (3.25) Skybet
• First Player Carded: Tagliafico best price 14/1 SpreadEx, Bet365, Betfred - AND Lovren best price 12/1 SpreadEx, 11/1 Bet365, 10/1 Betfred, Skybet

I’ll be back tomorrow at 12 noon with your email for the second semi final, France v Morocco.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues