Thursday 24th November 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• 4 games today – first kick-off 10am…
• Stats selections – our man Strahinja…
• Darwin for Uruguay…

World Cup, Day 5:

Playing for Penalties at 60/1…

Welcome to Day 5 of your Across the Leagues World Cup 2022 daily service…

If you can’t be good, be lucky…

‘How did that happen?’ That was the WhatsApp message I got from my colleague Shaun last night, after I informed him that our 4/1 pick Kevin De Bruyne had been named official Player of the Match in Belgium’s scrappy 1-0 win over Canada.

The answer is, as I stated before a ball was kicked in Qatar, this ‘fan-voted’ man-of-the-match award does often tend to go to the star player - even if said player doesn’t exactly shine on the day. Earlier on Wednesday, Luka Modric got the award (also at 4/1) in his Croatia side’s uneventful 0-0 draw with Morocco.

Upset hunters and big-odds backers take note…

• We’ve seen two big shock results so far. Saudi Arabia’s win over Argentina was 28/1. And Japan were 13/2 (7.5) to beat Germany yesterday. Both saw the underdog win by one goal, with the 2-1 score-line. And both Saudi Arabia and Japan came back from 0-1 down at half time, to win it in the second half - producing a couple of giant outcomes in the Half Time/ Full Time double-result market 

Day 5: Play this Penalty angle today…

At half time in the aforementioned Argentina-Saudi Arabia match, Roy Keane had a typically feisty on-air argument with Graeme Souness over the merits of the penalty kick that Argentina were awarded by VAR…

Keane went on to say that we could see a record number of penalties awarded at this World Cup - and he wasn’t joking…

We’ve mentioned the penalties every day in this email, and perhaps now it’s time to get in on the betting. With today’s four matches the final batch of the first round of Group games…

After three of yesterday’s four games saw a penalty taken, I went through the numbers last night:

• 8 of the 12 games played so far have paid out on a Penalty in the Match (67%)

The game-by-game odds from William Hill’s Penalty Taken market show that this is proving to be a profitable betting angle…

Qatar v Ecuador - 9/4 (3.25)
England v Iran - 9/4 (3.25)
USA v Wales - 9/4 (3.25)
Argentina v Saudi Arabia - 13/8 (2.63)
Mexico v Poland - 7/4 (2.75)
Germany v Japan- 13/10 (2.3)
Spain v Costa Rica - 11/8 (2.38)
Belgium v Canada - 13/8 (2.63)

Backing the penalty in all 12 games, to level 1-point stakes, those figures have produced:

10.44 pts profit
87% ROI

With VAR getting involved frequently (and often clumsily), and some keen referees about - this trend could continue today, and as the tournament progresses…

The good news is, the prices for today’s four fixtures are much the same as those listed above, at around 2/1 (3.0) or just under, for each game. Betfred has the best package as I write this morning, with the full house worth 60/1 in the ‘Will There Be A Penalty Awarded?’ market.

The 'same bet in every match' tactic gave us two out of four winners in the Corner Handicap markets yesterday. I'd never usually advise betting blind on anything, but this VAR-heavy World Cup is so far providing penalty-kick payouts, day after day & match after match…

• In the bet-box at the end of this email, I’ve listed the best prices in today’s Penalty markets. You could play those four selections in doubles & trebles, as you see fit

Here’s today’s match list in full:

Switzerland v Cameroon

10am, ITV

Match odds: Switzerland 4/5 (1.8), Draw 5/2 (3.5), Cameroon 4/1 (5.0)

My prediction: 0-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 1-1

Switzerland on the Corner Handicap is the stats-bet to take here, going on the pre-tournament formbook:

• Switzerland won the Most Corners in 7 out of 8 games (88%) in World Cup Qualifying, and by some margin…

With an aggregate score of 70 Corners For to just 18 Against. On average per game, that’s 8.75 v 2.25. With those numbers in mind, it’s no surprise to learn that the Swiss landed -4 Corner Handicap bets in six of their eight games (winning 5+ corners more than opponents on six out of eight occasions in qualifying).

Most recently, Switzerland posted a 5-2 corners score against Ghana this month, in their final Friendly before the tournament. The match favourites are 1/2 (1.5) for the straight-up Most Corners/ Corners Match Bet today. I prefer the odds-against prices for the -2 Corner Handicap, paying out if the Swiss win 3+ corners more than Cameroon.

Uruguay v South Korea

1pm, BBC

Match odds: Uruguay 8/11 (1.73), Draw 13/5 (3.6), South Korea 9/2 (5.5)

My prediction: Uruguay 3-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 1-1

There are two Uruguayan players that I’m most interested in here…

Midfielder Federico Valverde is having a great season at Real Madrid, scoring in seven of his last 14 games - including a couple of long-range screamers.

Liverpool striker Darwin Nunez has been impressive in the Premier League and Champions League, scoring in six of his last 10 appearances for the Reds. His aerial presence could pose a serious threat to the Korean defence today - and he’s the one I’d put the most faith in to find the net this afternoon. Odds of 2/1+ (3.0+) look good.

Portugal v Ghana

4pm, ITV

Match odds: Portugal 4/11 (1.36), Draw 4/1 (5.0), Ghana 8/1 (9.0)

My prediction: Portugal 2-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Portugal 3-1

This one is all about Cristiano Ronaldo, especially in terms of the media interest. He’s around Even Money (2.0) to score, and around 2/1 (3.0) for Man of the Match. You can never rule this guy out, but I’m not taking the short favourite this time, mainly on grounds of price.

Brazil v Serbia

7pm, BBC

Match odds: Brazil 4/9 (1.44), Draw 15/4 (4.75), Serbia 13/2 (7.5)

My prediction: Brazil 3-2
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Brazil 2-1

A chance to back one of the players I researched pre-tournament here, with highly-rated but card-happy young Serbia defender Strahinja Pavlovic the man to follow in the Player Cards markets today…

• Strahinja Pavlovic was booked in 3 out of 7 appearances for Serbia in World Cup Qualifying. He’s received a yellow card in 4 of his last 10 Internationals in all competitions. In 3 of out of 5 starts for Monaco in French Ligue 1 last season, Pavlovic got 3 yellow cards – and a red card. Now at Salzburg, the 21-year-old centre-back was booked in 2 out of 6 Champions League Group-stage matches this season. And in the Austrian Bundesliga, he got 3 yellows and a red in his first 8 league starts for Salzburg

Odds of 2/1 to be Carded appeal today (called ‘To be Booked’ at Bet365) - with Betfred sticking their neck out and going an industry-best standout price of 7/2 (4.5).

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

PENALTY TAKEN IN THE MATCH:

• Switzerland v Cameroon - YES @ 21/10 (3.1) Betfred, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, 15/8 (2.88) Boylesports, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 7/4 (2.75) William Hill, Unibet

• Uruguay v South Korea - YES @ 2/1 (3.0) William Hill, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 19/10 (2.9) Betfred

• Portugal v Ghana - YES @ 7/4 (2.75) Betfred, Unibet, 13/8 (2.63) William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook

• Brazil v Serbia - YES @ 7/4 (2.75) Unibet, 6/4 (2.5) Betfred, Bet365, 7/5 (2.4) Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 11/8 (2.38) Skybet, Boylesports

• Four-fold acca: Penalty in each game listed above @ 60/1 Betfred, 56/1 Unibet, 55/1 Skybet, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 54/1 Boylesports

Note: you might have to click around to find the Penalty markets with Betfred. I used Oddschecker to populate the online betting slip. There are also Penalty options listed in the ‘Pick A Punt’ section on the Betfred site, eg. ‘Any Player to Take a Penalty.’

SWITZERLAND v CAMEROON:

• Switzerland -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/8 (2.38) BetVictor, Boylesports, 5/4 (2.25) William Hill, 6/5 (2.2) Unibet, 23/20 (2.15) Betway, 11/10 (2.1) Bet365

URUGUAY v SOUTH KOREA:

• Anytime Scorer: Darwin Nunez @ 12/5 (3.4) Bet365, William Hill, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, Betfred

BRAZIL v SERBIA

• Player to be Carded: Strahinja Pavlovic @ 7/2 (4.5) Betfred, 2/1 (3.0) Bet365, Skybet, Betway, 10Bet & LiveScoreBet

I’ll see you tomorrow, with four games on the Friday schedule, and the first kick-off at 10am. Lookout for your email at 8am.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues