Friday 25th November 2022

In Across the Leagues – World Cup 2022 today:

• 4 games today – first kick-off 10am…

• Stats & angles…

• Play the Penalties combo again…

World Cup, Day 6:

Goalies, Braces – and a big-odds Yankee…

Welcome to Day 6 of your Across the Leagues World Cup 2022 daily service…

Just the one penalty kick awarded in yesterday's four games. But it turned out to be a good evening for us in the end, with Serbia defender Strahinja Pavlovic taking just six minutes to land our Cards bet against Brazil.

With that early yellow card, given for a tackle on Neymar, Pavlovic also paid out in the First Card market (I wish I'd also put him up for that now…). But the 7/2 and 2/1 that we got for the Player to be Carded were good prices.

Across the Leagues member L.J was already on the ball this week with the Penalty angle discussed in Thursday’s email:

• Got an angle, bet, or win of your own to share? Email me at: oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Goalies and Braces…

With the first round of Group games now completed, and the second wave starting today. I've got a couple more intriguing and potentially profitable angles for us to keep in mind...

• 3 Goalkeepers have got the official Player of the Match award so far

Each of those three goalies (for Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Switzerland) paid out at 20/1 in the Man of the Match/ FIFA Player of the Match market.

From the 16 games played so far in the tournament, that means that if you’d backed every goalkeeper in every game at odds of 20/1 (eg. two bets per game, one per team). You’d have staked 32 points, and returned 63 pts. For a profit of 31 pts, and an ROI of 97%.

• 35 players have scored so far at this World Cup - and 6 of them have scored twice in the game (17%)

If that ‘scoring in splurges’ trend continues, then you should look out for attractive odds for a star player/ striker to score 2+ goals in a game. Bookies including Skybet and Bet365 call that market Multi Scorers.

We’ve seen six braces so far. We haven’t seen a hat-trick yet… (or a red card, for that matter).

Here are today’s matches…

Wales v Iran

10am, BBC

Match odds: Wales 6/5 (2.2), Draw 21/10 (3.1), Iran 11/4 (3.75)

My prediction: 2-2
Chris Sutton at the BBC: 1-1

Wales have been trending to win this game, but my feeling is that Iran aren’t going to be as bad as their 6-2 defeat to England suggests.

Welsh hero Gareth Bale was a 4/1 (5.0) Man of the Match winner in the opening game. He’s just Evens this time (2.0), and at the time of writing this morning, that market is only available with Bet365. Perhaps Skybet and William Hill got stung by Cristiano Ronaldo, who was a winning favourite in the official Player of the Match market yesterday.

I prefer Bale’s price to Score Anytime, which at 7/4 (2.75) isn’t much off 2/1 (3.0) from the USA game. Gareth is of course the main man for Wales, and takes penalties and free kicks.

In search of a value price for the opponents, Iran striker Mehdi Taremi is the man to follow here…

Key stat:

• Wales have conceded in 6 of their last 7 games at major International tournaments (World Cup & European Championships)

Playing his club football for Porto, Taremi has scored five goals in the Champions League Group stage this season - a tally which puts him just two behind Kylian Mbappe and Mo Salah in the Champions League 2022/23 top scorer chart.

Taremi is one of those half-dozen players to have scored a brace in the opening round this week in Qatar. He takes penalties for Iran. In the Anytime Scorer betting, odds of 7/2 (4.5) and 11/4 (3.75) catch the eye today.

If you fancy something bigger - with that Multi Scorers angle above in mind…

• Bale is 11/1 to Score 2+ goals in the game (Bet365, Skybet, William Hill). Taremi is 25/1 with William Hill, 20/1 Skybet, Betfred

Qatar v Senegal

1pm, BBC

Match odds: Qatar 5/1 (6.0), Draw 11/4 (3.75), Senegal 4/6 (1.67)

My prediction: Senegal 2-0
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Senegal 1-0

We’ll hear some noise in the stadium every time Qatar go near the goal or shoot from distance. But the hosts’ opening 2-0 defeat to Ecuador didn’t look good, and the best way to get an odds-against price for the Senegal win here could be to keep things simple and back the Win to Nil at 11/8 (2.38).

If a gulf in class does prove apparent, then constructing a Bet Builder around Senegal dominating could pay dividends. For example, at Unibet you can get around 5/1 (6.0) for this combination:

Senegal to win
Both Teams to Score: No
Qatar Most Cards
Senegal Most Corners

Netherlands v Ecuador

4pm, ITV

Match odds: Netherlands 4/5 (1.8), Draw 13/5 (3.6), Ecuador 4/1 (5.0)

My prediction: 2-2
Chris Sutton at the BBC: Netherlands 2-1

Lead striker Memphis Depay is in line to start for the Dutch, returning from injury. He’s the 6/4 (2.5) favourite in the Anytime Scorer betting. Ecuador talisman and day-one two-goal star Enner Valencia is 3/1 (4.0). Both men take penalties, and that’s an angle I’m following up on today - see below…

England v USA

7pm, ITV

Match odds: England 1/2 (1.5), Draw 10/3 (4.33), USA 6/1 (7.0)

My prediction: England 3-1
Chris Sutton at the BBC: England 2-1

It’s take your pick in terms of England attackers here. With Raheem Sterling, Bukayo Sako (2), Jude Bellingham, Jack Grealish, and Marcus Rashford all scoring in the opening game. And captain & chief penalty-taker Harry Kane, yet to get off the mark…

USA gave away a penalty against Wales, and with this tournament averaging just over one pen every two games so far, taking another big-odds slant at yesterday’s penalty-in-every-game acca appeals to me for a speculative combo, to give us plenty of interest this Friday…

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

WALES v IRAN

• Anytime Scorer: Gareth Bale @ 7/4 (2.75) Bet365, 17/10 (2.7) Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 13/8 (2.63) William Hill, Skybet
• Anytime Scorer: Mehdi Taremi @ 7/2 (4.5) William Hill, 11/4 (3.75) Betfred, Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook, 5/2 (3.5) Skybet, Sporting Index Fixed Odds

QATAR v SENEGAL

• Senegal to Win to Nil @ 11/8 (2.38) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports

PENALTY TAKEN IN THE MATCH

• Yankee (6 Doubles, 4 Trebles, and the 4-fold Acca = 11 lines): Penalty in all 4 games today - best price Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook (71/1 the acca) 

Note: If you want staking advice for the Penalties Yankee, I’m treating is as 0.2 point per line, eg. total stake 2.2 pts.

Other bookies with Penalty markets include Skybet, Boylesports, William Hill, Bet365, Unibet.

I’ll see you tomorrow, with four games on the Saturday schedule, and the first kick-off at 10am. Lookout for your email at 8am.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues