Tuesday 15th November 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• All 8 favourites to romp home? Don’t bank on it…
• Shocks do happen…
• Top Scorers in the sights tomorrow…

World Cup: Group Winners – is it really this easy?

As promised, we’re taking a first look at the World Cup Group Winner market today…

Here are the top prices for all eight favourites to win their respective Groups:

Source: Oddschecker, 15th Nov ‘22

Is it really this easy?

As the screenshot above shows, Betway will give you 35/1 (36.0) for the full house. That’s all eight favourites to win in the Group Winner market:

Group A – Netherlands 1/2 (1.5)
Group B – England 4/9 (1.44)
Group C – Argentina 2/5 (1.4)
Group D – France 1/2 (1.5)
Group E – Spain 10/11 (1.91)
Group F – Belgium 4/6 (1.67)
Group G – Brazil 4/9 (1.44)
Group H – Portugal 8/11 (1.73)

That’s eight odds-on selections, rolled together.

• Please note: this is not my recommended bet. I’ll be sending you my first pre-tournament pick at the end of day tomorrow… and there’ll be nothing ‘odds-on’ about it (!)

All 8 favourites to romp home? Don’t bank on it…

There’s a time and a place for the ‘cream rises to the top’ theory. Harry Kane to score a penalty for England? Of course. Lionel Messi to come up with some magic when Argentina are on the ropes? Sure. But I’m not sure these Qatar 2022 group-winner favourites are going to deliver, across the board…

That eight-fold group-winner combo might look good on paper. But you don’t have to throw in many ‘what if’ scenarios for it to start looking decidedly wobbly…

Making assumptions is one of the biggest and most common mistakes you can make in betting. Nothing – NOTHING – is ever ‘nailed on.’ If you saw 16/1 shots Brentford win at Manchester City last weekend, then you’ll already know all about that.

With those 2022 Group Winner favourites in mind – consider these banana skins from recent World Cups:

• At Russia 2018, Argentina finished 2nd to Croatia in their group. And defending world champions Germany were eliminated, finishing bottom of their group, which was won by Sweden

• At Brazil 2014, the holders Spain failed to qualify from their group, only managing 3rd spot. While Italy and England were both in the same group, and both went home early – finishing 3rd and 4th respectively

• At South Africa 2010, England came 2nd to USA in their group. While the reigning champs Italy were dumped out, bottom of their group 

Shocks do happen…

At each of the last three World Cups, backing the full set of Group Winner favourites in an accumulator would have lost you money, every time.

England haven’t won their group at any of the last three World Cups, which takes us right back to 2006…

And even more eye-opening is the fact that at the last three tournaments, the reigning world champions have gone out in the group stage – falling at the very first hurdle. If that was to happen again in Qatar this month, then France won’t be landing their leg of that group-winner acca.

The takeaway point today being: here at Across the Leagues, in your exclusive DAILY World Cup 2022 service – we won’t be betting like sheep and following the flock. But we will be looking to find an edge, value prices, little-known betting angles, profitable standout stats that you won’t see reported on the BBC…

I won’t be recommending that acca on all eight favourites to win their groups. We’ll have an eye on finding some upsets, be it in the Group outright markets, or in the individual Match Result prices, game by game.

And when it comes to big prices, we’ll be making our very first move tomorrow. With an attractive Each Way selection in the tournament Top Goalscorer market…

See you tomorrow.

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues