Friday 18th November 2022

In Across the Leagues today:

• Profile of a Golden Ball winner…
• A genuine contender for Player of the Tournament…
• Kevin’s a class act – and he scores goals, too…

World Cup: The Golden touch at 18/1 and 80/1…

I said we’d be looking at the tournament Outright Winner market today, but I’ve switched the schedule around and that email will now be with you on Saturday.

Today, I’m focusing on the player markets, with one man in particular in my thoughts – and available at attractive odds…

FIFA Golden Ball Award…

The official FIFA Golden Ball Award (‘Player of the Tournament’) is an intriguing market, with the Qatar 2022 prices ranging from 8/1 to 300/1.

Using the results from all of the previous 21 World Cups, I’ve compiled the common characteristics that give us the criteria for finding the Golden Ball winner.

• The Golden Ball is the award given for the World Cup Player of the Tournament. A shortlist of players is drawn up by the FIFA technical committee, with the winner voted for by members of the media

Let’s start with a look at the most recent winners. Since the tournament moved to a 32-team, 64-game format in 1998…

Golden Ball winners – last 6 World Cups:

2018  
LUKA MODRIC (Croatia) – Midfielder
Goals: 2
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

2014  
LIONEL MESSI (Argentina) – Striker
Goals: 4
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

2010  
DIEGO FORLAN (Uruguay) – Striker
Goals: 5 (joint-top)
Team reached: Semi Final

2006
ZINEDINE ZIDANE (France) - Midfielder
Goals: 3
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

2002
OLIVER KAHN (Germany) - Goalkeeper
Goals: n/a (became first goalkeeper to keep 5 clean sheets at a World Cup)
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

1998
RONALDO (Brazil) - Striker
Goals: 4
Team reached: Final (runner-up)

The right profile…

Some significant trends emerge from the list of past winners. Including all 21 previous World Cups in the data, here’s the profile of a Golden Ball winner…

We’re looking for a player that ticks as many of these boxes as possible:

• STRIKERS & MIDFIELDERS – 13 of 21 winners have been Strikers (61.9%), 6 Midfielders (28.6%), one Defender (4.8%), one Goalkeeper (4.8%)

• REACH THE FINAL – 5 of the last 6 Golden Ball winners played for a team that made it to the final. Overall, 18 of the 21 Golden Ball winners (86%) made it to the final (9 winning the World Cup, 9 runner-up). However, none of the last 6, and just one of the last 9 Golden Ball winners have actually won the World Cup (Romario & Brazil in 1994)
• SEMI FINALS – Every Golden Ball winner in the history of the World Cup played for a team that reached at least the semi finals (100%)
• GOALS – Each of the last 11 Golden Ball winners scored at least 2 goals in the tournament (excluding goalkeeper Oliver Kahn – who kept a record number of clean sheets)

History tells us that the Golden Ball is highly likely to go to an attacking player, who gets to at least the semi finals.

From the list of recent winners of this award, one thing that stands out for me is this:

• 2 of the last 4 Golden Ball trophies have gone to creative, ball-playing midfielders…

The creative midfielders in question being Luka Modric of Croatia, and Zinedine Zidane of France. Zidane is long-retired. While Modric – now age 37 – is still going strong. He’s 66/1 in general to turn on the magic again, with Betway going 100/1. However, it’s worth pointing out here that no player has ever won the Golden Ball twice.

The man with the Golden touch…

The name I’m interested in right now, in the pre-tournament betting, is Kevin De Bruyne…

Superlatives get banded around a lot these days, but in my eyes, De Bruyne is a proper footballing genius…

He’s got the talent, as well as the drive and commitment… the vision, the creative flair… the eye for a knife-through-butter pass – and the ability to pull it off, time and time again… he can win tackles, set up counter-attacks… and score big goals, and long-range beauties…

Belgium made the semi finals at Russia 2018, beaten 1-0 by eventual World Cup winners France. There’s been much talk about Qatar 2022 being the last chance for this Belgian ‘golden generation’ to deliver. If they’re in need of a talisman to help them achieve that goal of winning the biggest trophy of them all, then, age 31, midfield maestro De Bruyne is the man for the job as I see it…

Priced at 18/1 and 16/1 in general to win the cup, Belgium are no.2 in the FIFA world rankings. Of course, that figure doesn’t provide any guarantees once you get out on the pitch and into knockout tournament football. But the bookmakers have Belgium as a contender, with the Red Devils in with the ‘Big Nine’ nations at the top of the betting (along with Brazil, Argentina, France, Spain, England, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal).  The other 23 countries are all priced at 33/1+.

I’ll look into the draw more in tomorrow’s article. Back to the player himself now – and what a player this guy is…

Kevin De Bruyne collects accolades and awards wherever he goes. Whether it’s Bundesliga Footballer of the Year from his days in Germany (2015) – to being named Premier League Player of the Season twice in the last three years.

He shares the all-time Premier League record for Most Assists in a season (20, level with Thierry Henry). And Kevin is currently top of the 2022/23 standings in that category, too:

Premier League Official Stats 2022/23:

A serial winner of Man of the Match awards for club & country, De Bruyne has been presented with the end-of-game prize multiple times for Manchester City, including in last season’s Champions League quarter finals. As well as for his country during Euro 2020. And at the last World Cup, Kevin was named Man of the Match in Belgium’s 2-1 win over Brazil in the quarter finals. In short: this player is a class act – and the ‘technical observers,’ ex-players, and pundits that dish out these awards, all know it.

Top prices of 18/1 and 80/1…

I like Kevin De Bruyne at 18/1 – 14/1 to win the Golden Ball.

And for bigger odds and an Each Way price, I also want to get this world-class performer in the book as an outside chance for Top Goalscorer…

• De Bruyne has scored in 3 of his last 6 games for Belgium

With doubts over both the form of Eden Hazard, and the match fitness of Romelu Lukaku. It could fall on De Bruyne to come up with the goods for Belgium. And as I’ve stated above – I reckon he’s up for the challenge…

Back in my World Cup 2018 service, I flagged Kevin up as a 100/1 outsider in the top scorer market, saying at the time: If Belgium are to prove the real deal, De Bruyne is likely to be at the heart of it. Takes a mean free kick and not afraid to shoot from distance…

The same applies today. Four years later, and now up to 25 goals in 88 games for his country. As well as 15 goals in the Premier League last season…

De Bruyne has the ability to outstrip odds of 50/1+ for Top Goalscorer, with four Each Way places to shoot at, at 1/4 the odds, in general. A couple of firms are going even bigger, at 80/1 and 66/1 (see below).

• This bet package could also end up acting as cover/ alternative for our 50/1 top scorer bet on Serge Gnabry of Germany: for example, if the Belgians win their group, and the Germans come 2nd in theirs, then Germany v Belgium will be a Last 16 knockout tie…

The ‘fine wine’ theory…

Finally… going back to that creative midfielder angle. Both Modric and Zidane were in their thirties when they won the Golden Ball – age 32 and 34, respectively.

If there’s anything in that ‘fine wine’ theory – and I think there could be, when it comes to genuinely world-class players ageing well. Then 31-year-old De Bruyne can join the club during this World Cup…

TODAY’S PICKS

World Cup 2022

Golden Ball:

• Kevin De Bruyne @ 18/1 10Bet & LiveScoreBet, 16/1 Ladbrokes & Coral, 15/1 Unibet, 14/1 Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, Betway

Top Goalscorer – Each Way (1/4 odds 1-4 places):

• Kevin De Bruyne @ 80/1 10Bet & LiveScoreBet, 66/1 Boylesports, 50/1 Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, SpreadEx, Betway

Your exclusive DAILY World Cup service starts from Matchday 1 on Sunday, with the email being sent to you 12 noon, for a 4pm kick-off.

Before then, I’ll be in touch again on Saturday morning…

P.S
Want to get in touch? You can email me direct at:

oliver@acrosstheleagues.co.uk

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues