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How to maximise profits on crazy score-lines...

Friday 9th October 2020

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

  • A game of higher or lower…
  • Spread potential…
  • £300 cashback offer…

How to maximise profits on crazy score-lines…

The last few weeks have seen some mad results in the top European divisions.

Check out this list of high-scoring games:

Hoffenheim 4 Bayern Munich 1 – the German champions’ 23-game winning streak brought to a crashing end

Man City 2 Leicester 5 – three penalties and a Jamie Vardy hat-trick contributing to a shock home defeat for Man City

Man Utd 1 Tottenham 6 – Spurs go goal-crazy at Old Trafford

Aston Villa 7 Liverpool 2 – the champions ripped apart, in one of the most remarkable Premier League results of all time

Atalanta 5 Cagliari 2 – last season’s Serie A top scorers have continued where they left off, with 4-2, 4-1 and 5-2 wins so far

The Total Goals tallies in those respective matches were: 5, 7, 7, 9 and 7.

Goal-filled games like that make for nice profits in a variety of areas. The standard, fixed odds markets such as Over 2.5 Goals, and Both Teams to Score. And some huge Correct Score odds – if you have a crystal ball to pick them out, that is.

A game of higher or lower…

Another way to target the Total Goals markets is with the spread betting firms…

Here, the more ‘right’ you are, the more you stand to win. The most ‘wrong’ you can be, if you’re anticipating a high-goals result, is a 0-0 draw.

With the usual line hovering around the 2.5-goals mark, there’s the potential for some large outcomes in these spread markets…

For example, if the Total Goals line was set at 2.45 – 2.65 for that Villa v Liverpool game:

If you were to Buy (bet high) at 2.65 goals, the final profit would be 6.35 x your stake. That’s calculated by the difference between the result (9 goals), and the spread-betting line (2.65).

Now, let’s look at another example, this time using an upcoming fixture…

SpreadEx have set the Total Goals line at 2.45 – 2.65 for this weekend’s Nations League game between Poland and Italy.

If you were aiming to go high and make a Buy of the Total Goals at 2.65, the evidence you might consider includes:

  • Poland have won 5-1 and 3-2 in their last two home games, and have Bayern Munich goal machine Robert Lewandowski in their ranks
  • Italy won 6-0 v Moldova midweek. Their squad boast last season’s Serie A top scorer, Ciro Immobile. And striker Stephan El Shaarawy, who scored two in that big win over Moldova

On the other hand, if you were instead looking to make a Sell of the Total Goals, and bet low at 2.45 goals…

  • When these two countries last faced each other in the Nations League in 2018/19, both matches were low-scoring affairs, 0-1 in Poland, and 1-1 in Italy

Spread potential…

If you made the Buy at 2.65 and that Poland v Italy game on Sunday ended, let’s say, 3-2 to Italy (Total Goals = 5). Then the profit in that example would be 2.35 x your stake.

On the other side of the coin, if you made the Sell at 2.45 and the game ended goalless (Total Goals = 0), then the profit would be 2.45 x your stake.

If we compare those potential outcomes to standard, fixed odds markets, we can see the potential in taking the spread betting option:

Over 2.5 Goals at 11/10 (2.1) would win you 1.1 x your stake.

Under 2.5 Goals at 8/11 (1.73) would win you 0.73 x your stake.

  • Note: remember, unlike fixed odds betting, with spread betting there is the potential to lose more than your initial stake

If you’d like to find our more about spread betting, and get started with an attractive cashback bonus, then check out this current new-member offer from SpreadEx

Up to £300 cashback with SpreadEx >>

  • Join Spreadex and get up to £300 cashback on selected sports spread bets in your first 28 days…

Stake lower and get matched cashback. E.g. stake £100 on selected sports spread bets in your first 28 days, get £100 cashback. Ts&Cs apply. Spread bet losses can exceed deposit. 18+ begambleaware.org

Up to £300 cashback with SpreadEx >>

P.S
We’ll be back next weekend when the Premier League returns, with the next round of our Predictor game.

Enjoy the football…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues