Thursday 8th August 2024

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• Top Goalscorer stats and analysis…
• English Football League starts this weekend…
• First 2024/25 bets tomorrow…

Penalty-takers are worth their weight in gold…

The 2024/25 English Football League season starts this weekend. The Premier League follows a week after. I’m sharing some of my initial ante-post analysis with you today.

The article below is a free taster from over on my full, members-only Across the Leagues service. Look out TOMORROW for your chance to join for the new season with an exceptional special offer – and get your hands on the first bets...

Top Goalscorer betting has become a key area for me in recent years.

It pays to specialise, and in the ante-post markets, putting the hours in has delivered some profitable results in the top-scorer department.

With four Each Way places generally on offer in the top English leagues, Top Goalscorer is a market that can keep us entertained and in with a shout of a big-odds payout, all season long…

I like to do my own research. That’s how I work. My analysis then gives a platform to build on when it comes to comparing the bookmakers’ prices to the players on the list.

The 2024/25 English Football League (EFL) season kicks-off on Friday night. Today, we’re digging around in the historical top-scorer stats. With penalties being a key factor when it comes to putting your cash behind a player in the scorer markets…

Top Scorers and Penalties…

Here’s a key stat for you. I’ve been doing some number-crunching:

• Over the last 8 seasons, across the Championship, League One & League Two combined, 80% of the players that finished in the Each Way places in the Top Goalscorer markets scored at least one penalty during the campaign. And 50% scored 4+ penalties

A reliable penalty taker can be worth their weight in gold for a Top Goalscorer bet.

The above statistic tells us that on average, four out of five players that finish in the top scorer places in the English Football League (EFL) have some, or all, of the penalty-taking responsibilities for their club.

And that’s great to know, as it will help us whittle down the hundreds of potential candidates on the betting lists for the coming season.

Here are the penalty stats recorded by the highest-scoring men in the EFL, going back over the last eight years. With these three divisions all getting underway for the new 2024/25 campaign this weekend…

Championship

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties Converted

Championship 2023/24:
Sammie Szmodics (Blackburn, 19th) – 27 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Adam Armstrong (Southampton, 4th – 21 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Crysencio Summerville (Leeds, 3rd) – 19 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Morgan Whittaker (Plymouth, 21st) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0

Championship 2022/23:
Chupa Akpom (Middlesbrough, 4th) – 28 goals – 4 pens out of 6
Viktor Gyokeres (Coventry, 5th) – 21 goals – 3 pens out of 4
Carlton Morris (Luton, 3rd) – 20 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Joel Piroe (Swansea, 10th) – 19 goals – 2 pens out of 3

Championship 2021/22:
Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham, 1st) – 43 goals – 6 pens out of 7
Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth, 2nd) – 29 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Ben Brereton-Diaz (Blackburn, 8th) – 22 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Andreas Wiemann (Bristol City, 17th) – 22 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Joel Piroe (Swansea, 15th) – 22 goals – 1 pen out of 1

Championship 2020/21:
Ivan Toney (Brentford, 3rd) – 31 goals – 9 pens out of 9
Adam Armstrong (Blackburn, 15th) – 28 goals – 5 pens out of 8
Teemu Pukki (Norwich, 1st) – 26 goals – 5 pens out of 7
Kieffer Moore (Cardiff, 8th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Championship 2019/20:
Aleksandar Mitrovic (Fulham, 4th) – 26 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Ollie Watkins (Brentford, 3rd) – 25 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Lewis Grabban (N.Forest, 7th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Karlan Grant (Huddersfield, 18th) – 19 goals – 6 pens out of 7

Championship 2018/19:
Teemu Pukki (Norwich, 1st) – 29 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Tammy Abraham (Aston Villa, 5th) – 25 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Neal Maupay (Brentford, 11th) – 25 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Dwight Gayle (West Brom, 4th) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Billy Sharp (Sheff Utd, 2nd) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 2

Championship 2017/18:
Matej Vydra (Derby, 6th) – 21 goals – 6 pens out of 7
Lewis Grabban (A.Villa, 4th) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Leon Clarke (Sheff Utd, 10th) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Bobby Reid (Bristol City, 11th) – 19 goals – 3 pens out of 3

Championship 2016/17:
Chris Wood (Leeds, 7th) – 27 goals – 5 pens out of 5
Tammy Abraham (Bristol City, 17th) – 23 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Dwight Gayle (Newcastle, 1st) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Glenn Murray (Brighton, 2nd) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Those Championship numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer: 6th

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place: 7th

Over the last 8 seasons in the Championship:

• 6 of the 8 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season

• 18 of the 34 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season

• 26 of the 34 players scored at least one penalty in a season, and only 4 players didn’t take any pens at all

• 12.8% of the total goals scored by the Championship players listed above came from penalties (103 out of 807)

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League One

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties Converted

League One 2023/24:
Alfie May (Charlton, 16th) – 23 goals – 6 pens out of 6
Colby Bishop (Portsmouth, 1st) – 21 goals – 8 pens out of 10
Devante Cole (Barnsley, 6th) – 18 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Jamie Reid (Stevenage, 9th) – 18 goals – 2 pens out of 2

League One 2022/23:
Conor Chaplin (Ipswich, 2nd) – 26 goals – 0 pens out of 2
Jonson Clarke-Harris (Peterborough, 6th) – 26 goals – 5 pens out of 6
David McGoldrick (Derby County, 7th) – 22 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Alfie May (Cheltenham, 16th) – 20 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Colby Bishop (Portsmouth, 8th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 6

League One 2021/22:
Will Keane (Wigan, 1st) – 26 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Ross Stewart (Sunderland, 5th) – 24 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Alfie May (Cheltenham, 15th) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Cole Stockton (Morecambe, 19th) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 2

League One 2020/21:
Jonson Clarke-Harris (Peterborough, 2nd) – 31 goals – 7 pens out of 10
Charlie Wyke (Sunderland, 4th) – 25 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Joe Pigott (AFC Wimbledon, 19th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 7
Jerry Yates (Blackpool, 3rd) – 20 goals – 6 pens out of 6

League One 2019/20 (shortened season):
Ivan Toney (Peterborough, 7th) – 24 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Armand Gnanduillet (Blackpool, 13th) – 15 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Ian Henderson (Rochdale, 18th) – 15 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Paddy Madden (Fleetwood, 6th) – 15 goals – 0 pens out of 0

League One 2018/19:
James Collins (Luton, 1st) – 25 goals – 6 pens out of 8
Tom Eaves (Gillingham, 13th) – 21 goals – 1 pen out of 4
John Marquis (Doncaster, 6th) – 21 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Lyle Taylor (Charlton, 3rd) – 21 goals – 8 pens out of 10

League One 2017/18:
Jack Marriott (Peterborough, 9th) – 27 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Brett Pitman (Portsmouth, 8th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Will Grigg (Wigan, 1st) – 19 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Bradley Dack (Blackburn, 2nd) – 18 goals – 0 pens out of 0

League One 2016/17:
Billy Sharp (Sheff Utd, 1st) – 30 goals – 4 pens out of 6
James Vaughan (Bury, 19th) – 24 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Josh Morris (Scunthorpe, 3rd) – 19 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Lee Gregory (Millwall, 6th) – 17 goals – 8 pens out of 10

Those League One numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer: 5th

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place: 8th

Over the last 8 seasons in League One:

• 5 of the 9 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season

• 16 of the 33 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season

• 27 of the 34 players scored at least one penalty in a season (3 of the other 7 players didn’t take any pens)

• 14.9% of the total goals scored by the League One players listed above came from penalties (107 out of 720)

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League Two

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties Converted

League Two 2023/24:
Macaulay Langstaff (Notts County, 14th) – 28 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Matt Smith (Salford, 20th) – 24 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Paul Mullin (Wrexham, 2nd) – 24 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Davis Keillor-Dunn (Mansfield, 3rd) – 22 goals – 0 pens out of 0

League Two 2022/23:
Andy Cook (Bradford, 6th) – 28 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Sam Hoskins (Northampton, 3rd) – 22 goals – 2 pens out of 3
Kristian Dennis (Carlisle, 5th) – 20 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Omar Bogle (Newport County, 15th) – 17 goals – 5 pens out of 5

League Two 2021/22:
Dominic Telford (Newport County, 11th) – 25 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Mathew Stevens (Forest Green, 1st) – 23 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Jamille Matt (Forest Green, 1st) – 19 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Harry McKirdy (Swindon, 6th) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0

League Two 2020/21:
Paul Mullin (Cambridge, 2nd) – 32 goals – 8 pens out of 11
Eoin Doyle (Bolton, 3rd) – 19 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Matt Jay (Exeter, 9th) – 18 goals – 4 pens out of 4
James Vaughan (Tranmere, 7th) – 18 goals – 5 pens out of 6

League Two 2019/20 (shortened season):
Eoin Doyle (Swindon, 1st) – 25 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Nicky Maynard (Mansfield, 21st) – 14 goals – 0 pens out of 1
Ryan Bowman (Exeter, 5th) – 13 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Ollie Palmer (Crawley, 13th) – 13 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Jerry Yates (Swindon, 1st) – 13 goals – 1 pen out of 1

League Two 2018/19:
James Norwood (Tranmere, 6th) – 29 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Tyler Walker (Mansfield, 4th) – 22 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Nicky Maynard (Bury, 2nd) – 20 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Kieran Agard (MK Dons, 3rd) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 7

League Two 2017/18:
Billy Kee (Accrington, 1st) – 25 goals – 8 pens out of 9
Marc McNulty (Coventry, 6th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Mohamed Eisa (Cheltenham, 17th) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Danny Hylton (Luton, 2nd) – 21 goals – 5 pens out of 6

League Two 2016/17:
John Akinde (Barnet, 15th) – 26 goals – 6 pens out of 8
John Marquis (Doncaster, 3rd) – 26 goals – 1 pen out of 3
Danny Hylton (Luton, 4th) – 21 goals – 4 pens out of 5
James Collins (Crawley, 19th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 5
Matt Godden (Stevenage, 10th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 5

Those League Two numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer: 6th

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place: 7th

Over the last 8 seasons in League Two:

• 5 of the 9 Top Goalscorer winners scored 4+ penalties in a season

• 15 of the 34 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season

• 28 of the 34 players scored at least one penalty in a season, and 5 didn’t take any pens at all

• 13.5% of the total goals scored by the League Two players listed above came from penalties (99 out of 732)

Conclusion:

The top-scoring player doesn’t necessarily come from the team that ultimately wins the league. But we do want to be looking for someone who’s side is generally making a push for the playoff places…

And we certainly want to focus on players that take (and convert) penalties for their club…

On average over the last eight seasons, 14% of goals scored by players in the Each Way places in the EFL top scorer markets have come been penalties. That 14% figure remains steady for outright, 1st-place top scorers, too.

14% is a significant stat. It could prove the difference between a losing bet, and a winning one…

First bets tomorrow – look out for your invite…

Those facts and figures will serve us well as we look to strike our first ante-post bets for the new 2024/25 season. I’ve got some big odds in the pipeline…

Tomorrow, Friday 9th August, I’ll be releasing my first bets for the new English Football League season. These will be for Across the Leagues members only…

Tune in tomorrow to find out how to book your place and claim an early-bird discount…

Keep an eye on your emails!

See you tomorrow…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra