Tuesday 8th August 2023

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• Premier League 2023/24 – starts Friday night…
• Top Goalscorer – key stats…
• Playing the prices – and the markets…

Your 5-step guide to picking the Premier League Top Scorer…

The new Premier League season starts this weekend. I’m sharing some of my stats & analysis with you today…

The article below is a free taster from over on my full, members-only Across the Leagues service. Look out TOMORROW for your chance to join for the new season with an exceptional special offer – and get your hands on the first big-odds, Each Way bets...

The Premier League kicks off this weekend. Today we’re taking a deep-dive into 2023/24 Top Goalscorer market. Consulting stats and trends that can aid us in our quest for value this season…

Premier League – Top Goalscorer

Here are the five key stats that I’ve identified in my research:

• KEY STAT: Favourites don’t always win. In fact, the pre-season outright favourite has only paid out as the Top Goalscorer once in the last 7 Premier League seasons (Erling Haaland 2022/23) 

Harry Kane has been a losing favourite four times out of five in recent years. And he might yet be on his way from Tottenham during this month’s transfer window.

2022/23
Pre-season favourite: Erling Haaland @ 11/4 – W
Winner: Erling Haaland

2021/22
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 10/3 – X
Winner: Mo Salah @ 9/2 & Heung-Min Son @ 40/1 (Dead Heat)

2020/21
Pre-season favourite: Mo Salah @ 5/1 – X
Winner: Harry Kane @ 6/1

2019/20
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 4/1 – X
Winner: Jamie Vardy @ 20/1

2018/19
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 11/4 – X
Winner: Three-way tie – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Sadio Mane, Mo Salah

2017/18
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 3/1 – X
Winner: Mo Salah

2016/17
Pre-season favourite: Sergio Aguero @ 7/2 – X
Winner: Harry Kane @ 9/1

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• KEY STAT: Debutants may take time to adapt. Last season, Haaland became the first player ever to win the Golden Boot outright in his debut season in the English Premier League. The young Man City superstar being the exception to the rule…

That newcomer stat is certainly one to keep in mind before throwing your cash at this summer’s headline signings…

For example, Nicolas Jackson and Christopher Nkunku for Chelsea, and Rasmus Hojlund (Man Utd) are all about to embark on their maiden campaigns in the English top-flight.

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• KEY STAT: You don’t have to play for the champions. The Top Goalscorer winner has come from the team that won the Premier League just once in 10 years. Again, that was Haaland for Man City last time out…

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• KEY STAT: It pays to take Penalties. Over the last 7 seasons in the Premier League, 87% of the players that finished in the Each Way places in the Top Goalscorer markets scored at least one penalty during the campaign…

Here are the goals and penalty stats recorded by the highest-scoring men in the Premier League, going back over the last seven years:

Premier League

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties converted

Premier League 2022/23:
Erling Haaland (Man City, 1st) – 36 goals – 7 pens out of 7
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 8th) – 30 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Ivan Toney (Brentford, 9th) – 20 goals – 6 pens out of 7
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 5th) – 19 goals – 2 pens out of 4

Premier League 2021/22:
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 2nd) – 23 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Heung-Min Son (Tottenham, 4th) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Cristiano Ronaldo (Man Utd, 6th) – 18 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 4th) – 17 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Premier League 2020/21:
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 7th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 3rd) – 22 goals – 6 pens out of 6
Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd, 2nd) – 18 goals – 9 pens out of 10
Heung-Min Son (Tottenham, 7th) – 17 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Patrick Bamford (Leeds, 9th) – 17 goals – 2 pens out of 2

Premier League 2019/20:
Jamie Vardy (Leicester, 5th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal, 8th) – 22 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Danny Ings (Southampton, 11th) – 22 goals – 1 pen out of 2
Raheem Sterling (Man City, 2nd) – 20 goals – 0 pens out of 2

Premier League 2018/19:
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal, 5th) – 22 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Sadio Mane (Liverpool, 2nd) – 22 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 2nd) – 22 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Sergio Aguero (Man City, 1st) – 21 goals – 2 pens out of 2

Premier League 2017/18:
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 4th) – 32 goals – 1 pen out of 2
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 3rd) – 30 goals – 2 pens out of 3
Sergio Aguero (Man City, 1st) – 21 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Jamie Vardy (Leicester, 9th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 6

Premier League 2016/17:
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 2nd) – 29 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Romelu Lukaku (Everton, 7th) – 25 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal, 4th) – 24 goals – 2 pens out of 3
Sergio Aguero (Man City, 3rd) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Diego Costa (Chelsea, 1st) – 20 goals – 0 pens out of 1

Over the last seven seasons in the Premier League:

• 6 of the 10 Top Goalscorer winners (including ties) scored 4+ penalties in a season

• 14 of the 30 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season (47%)

• 26 of the 30 players scored at least one penalty in a season (87%), and only 2 players didn’t take any pens at all

• 13.9% of the total goals scored by the players listed above came from penalties (94 out of 678)

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• KEY STAT: On average, the Premier League Top Goalscorer plays for a team finishing in the Top 4 that season, and scores 20+ goals…

Those last-sevens-seasons numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer = 3rd

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place = 5th

• Average goals to be 1st-place Top Scorer = 25.5

• Average goals for a Top 4 Each Way place = 22.6

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Those five key stats in summary…

Premier League – Top Goalscorer:

• Favourites don’t always win. In fact, the pre-season outright favourite has only paid out as the Top Goalscorer once in the last 7 seasons

• Debutants may take time to adapt. Only one player has ever won the Golden Boot outright in his debut season in the English Premier League (and Erling Haaland is the exception to the rule…)

• You don’t have to play for the champions. The Top Goalscorer winner has come from the team that won the Premier League just once in the last 10 seasons

• It pays to take Penalties. Over the last 7 seasons in the Premier League, 87% of the players that finished in the Each Way places in the Top Goalscorer markets scored at least one penalty during the campaign. And 47% scored 4+ penalties

• Top 5 team, and 22 goals. On average, to get into the 4 Each Way places for a Top Goalscorer payout, the player comes for a team finishing in the Top 5 of the table, and scores 22 goals

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Mr Consistent…

Here are three men who have proved to be ‘Mr Consistent’ in recent times, regularly scoring in double figures, season after season:

• Mo Salah (Liverpool) has scored 19+ Premier League goals in each of the last 6 seasons. In that time, Salah has converted 20 out of 24 penalties

• Harry Kane (Tottenham) has scored 17+ goals in the Premier League, 9 seasons running. Hitting 21+ goals in 6 of those 9 campaigns. And converting a total of 33 out of 37 penalties

• Heung-Min Son (Tottenham) has got into double figures 5 seasons in a row, including 10 goals last season, 23 the season before, and 17 the year before that. Whether Kane stays or goes, maybe Son will shine again…

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Playing the prices – and the markets…

With a good chunk of stats on our side there, I’m continuing my Premier League 2023/24 research this week. Publishing the first bets ahead of the weekend, with the first game taking place on Friday night (Burnley v Man City).

As ever, we’ll be looking to get behind one or two outsiders at tasty Each Way prices.

Here’s how the top of the Premier League Top Goalscorer market currently looks at Bet365:

100/1+ bar.

With the expected dominance of Haaland for Man City, we’ll also be looking to shop elsewhere this season…

As I write, two or three bookmakers are offering a Premier League ante-post market called ‘Top Goalscorer WITHOUT Haaland.’ That’s testament to how good Erling is. And it’s good news for us, giving us four Each Way places to shoot out, without the big favourite. The revised prices take that into account, of course. But my initial thoughts are that there is potentially a bit of juice in the ‘Without Haaland’ prices for a few players. I’ll report back to members at the end of the week, before the big kick-off.

I’ve also got my eye on another ‘alternative’ Premier League pre-season market, too. Also containing some eye-catching odds. Watch this space…

Lookout for an email tomorrow, with your chance to get those first Premier League bets, before anyone else…

Keep an eye on your emails!

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra