Tuesday 13th August 2024

In Across the Leagues EXTRA today:

• Premier League 2024/25 – starts Friday night…
• Top Goalscorer – key stats…
• Playing the prices – and the markets…

Your 5-step guide to picking the Premier League Top Scorer…

The article below is a free taster from over on my full, members-only Across the Leagues service. Look out on FRIDAY for your chance to join for the new season with an exceptional special offer – and get your hands on the first big-odds, Each Way bets...

The Premier League kicks off this weekend. Today we’re taking a deep-dive into the Top Goalscorer stats. Consulting numbers and trends that can aid us in our quest for value this season…

Premier League – Top Goalscorer

Here are the five key stats that I’ve identified in my research:

• KEY STAT: Favourites don’t always win. In fact, the pre-season outright favourite has only paid out as the Top Goalscorer twice in the last 8 Premier League seasons (Erling Haaland two years running) 

2023/24
Pre-season favourite: Erling Haaland @ 8/13 – W
Winner: Erling Haaland

2022/23
Pre-season favourite: Erling Haaland @ 11/4 – W
Winner: Erling Haaland

2021/22
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 10/3 – X
Winner: Mo Salah & Heung-Min Son (Dead Heat)

2020/21
Pre-season favourite: Mo Salah @ 5/1 – X
Winner: Harry Kane

2019/20
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 4/1 – X
Winner: Jamie Vardy

2018/19
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 11/4 – X
Winner: Three-way tie – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Sadio Mane, Mo Salah

2017/18
Pre-season favourite: Harry Kane @ 3/1 – X
Winner: Mo Salah

2016/17
Pre-season favourite: Sergio Aguero @ 7/2 – X
Winner: Harry Kane

It can pay to take on the favourites, and play the bigger Each Way prices instead…

From the above list, the likes of Vardy (20/1) and Heung-Min Son (40/1) both went off at attractive odds – and as profitable picks for us…

What’s more, with bookies paying 1/4 odds 1-4 places Each Way in the Premier League top scorer market. There is always the chance of getting on a ‘surprise package’ to land a share of the spoils…

For example, last season’s 2nd place scorer Cole Palmer was a 100/1 shot. While 3rd place finisher Alexander Isak was 33/1. In comparison, this time, those two go off at odds of just 20/1 and 16/1, respectively (Bet365). The trick is to latch onto a player before they make a big splash in the Premier League scoring charts…

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• KEY STAT: Debutants may take time to adapt. Haaland was the first player ever to win the Golden Boot outright in his debut season in the English Premier League. The Man City superstar being the exception to the rule…

That newcomer stat is certainly one to keep in mind before throwing your cash at this summer’s headline signings…

For example, West Ham’s new striker Niclas Fullkrug is a 50/1 shot. He was joint-top scorer in the Bundesliga in 2022/23, and also got into double figures last term. But this will be the 31-year-old’s first ever season playing outside of the German leagues.

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• KEY STAT: You don’t have to play for the champions. The Top Goalscorer winner has come from the team that won the Premier League just twice in 11 years. Again, that was Haaland for Man City…

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• KEY STAT: It pays to take Penalties. Over the last 8 seasons in the Premier League, 83% of the players that finished in the Each Way places in the Top Goalscorer markets scored at least one penalty during the campaign…

Here are the goals and penalty stats recorded by the highest-scoring men in the Premier League, going back over the last eight campaigns:

Premier League

TOP GOALSCORERS – top 4 scorers/ Each Way places:

Player (Club and League Position) – Goals – Penalties converted

Premier League 2023/24:
Erling Haaland (Man City, 1st) – 27 goals – 7 pens out of 8
Cole Palmer (Chelsea, 6th) – 22 goals – 9 pens out of 9
Alexander Isak (Newcastle, 7th) – 21 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Phil Foden (Man City, 1st) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth, 12th) – 19 goals – 2 pens out of 3
Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa, 4th) – 19 goals – 0 pens out of 0

Premier League 2022/23:
Erling Haaland (Man City, 1st) – 36 goals – 7 pens out of 7
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 8th) – 30 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Ivan Toney (Brentford, 9th) – 20 goals – 6 pens out of 7
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 5th) – 19 goals – 2 pens out of 4

Premier League 2021/22:
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 2nd) – 23 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Heung-Min Son (Tottenham, 4th) – 23 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Cristiano Ronaldo (Man Utd, 6th) – 18 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 4th) – 17 goals – 4 pens out of 4

Premier League 2020/21:
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 7th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 3rd) – 22 goals – 6 pens out of 6
Bruno Fernandes (Man Utd, 2nd) – 18 goals – 9 pens out of 10
Heung-Min Son (Tottenham, 7th) – 17 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Patrick Bamford (Leeds, 9th) – 17 goals – 2 pens out of 2

Premier League 2019/20:
Jamie Vardy (Leicester, 5th) – 23 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal, 8th) – 22 goals – 2 pens out of 2
Danny Ings (Southampton, 11th) – 22 goals – 1 pen out of 2
Raheem Sterling (Man City, 2nd) – 20 goals – 0 pens out of 2

Premier League 2018/19:
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal, 5th) – 22 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Sadio Mane (Liverpool, 2nd) – 22 goals – 0 pens out of 0
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 2nd) – 22 goals – 3 pens out of 3
Sergio Aguero (Man City, 1st) – 21 goals – 2 pens out of 2

Premier League 2017/18:
Mo Salah (Liverpool, 4th) – 32 goals – 1 pen out of 2
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 3rd) – 30 goals – 2 pens out of 3
Sergio Aguero (Man City, 1st) – 21 goals – 4 pens out of 4
Jamie Vardy (Leicester, 9th) – 20 goals – 5 pens out of 6

Premier League 2016/17:
Harry Kane (Tottenham, 2nd) – 29 goals – 5 pens out of 6
Romelu Lukaku (Everton, 7th) – 25 goals – 1 pen out of 1
Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal, 4th) – 24 goals – 2 pens out of 3
Sergio Aguero (Man City, 3rd) – 20 goals – 4 pens out of 5
Diego Costa (Chelsea, 1st) – 20 goals – 0 pens out of 1

Over the last eight seasons in the Premier League:

• 7 of the 11 Top Goalscorer winners (including ties) scored 4+ penalties in a season (64%)

• 17 of the 36 placed top scorers converted 4+ penalties in a season (47%)

• 30 of the 36 players scored at least one penalty in a season (83%), and only 4 players didn’t take any pens at all

• 14.5% of the total goals scored by the players listed above came from penalties (117 out of 805)

Does that 14% stat sound familiar?

In last week’s analysis we looked at the figures for the last eight seasons in the English Championship, League One, and League Two… where 14% of all goals scored by the men in the top scorer/ Each Way places also came from penalty kicks.

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• KEY STAT: On average, the Premier League Top Goalscorer plays for a team finishing in the Top 5, and he scores 22+ goals…

Those last-eight-seasons numbers tell us that:

• Average team league finishing position for a 1st-place Top Scorer = 3rd

• Average team league finishing position for a Top 4 Each Way place = 5th

• Average goals to be 1st-place Top Scorer = 25.6

• Average goals for a Top 4 Each Way place = 22.4

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Those five key stats in summary…

Premier League – Top Goalscorer:

• Favourites don’t always win. In fact, the pre-season outright favourite has only paid out as the Top Goalscorer twice in the last 8 seasons

• Debutants may take time to adapt. Only one player has ever won the Golden Boot outright in his debut season in the English Premier League (and Erling Haaland is the exception to the rule…)

• You don’t have to play for the champions. The Top Goalscorer winner has come from the team that won the Premier League just twice in the last 11 seasons

• It pays to take Penalties. Over the last 8 seasons in the Premier League, 83% of players that finished in the Each Way places in the Top Goalscorer markets scored at least one penalty during the campaign. And 47% scored 4+ penalties

• Top 5 team, and 22 goals. On average, to get into the 4 Each Way places for a Top Goalscorer payout, the player comes for a team finishing in the Top 5 of the table, and scores 22 goals

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Mr Consistent…

Here are four men who have proved to be ‘Mr Consistent’ in recent times, regularly scoring in double figures, season after season:

• Mo Salah (Liverpool) has scored 18+ Premier League goals in each of the last 7 seasons. In that time, Salah has converted 25 out of 31 penalties

• Heung-Min Son (Tottenham) has got into double figures for 8 seasons in a row, and scored 17+ goals in 3 of the last 4 campaigns

• Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) has scored 10+ league goals, 8 seasons running. With his figures since arriving in the Premier League standing at (most recent first): 19 goals, 15, 11, 14

• Ivan Toney (Brentford) has got into double figures in each of his last 5 full league seasons. With 20 Premier League goals in 2022/23, and 12 the season before – netting a total of 11 out of 12 penalties in the English top-flight

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We’ll be playing the prices – and the markets…

With a good chunk of stats on our side there, I’m continuing my Premier League 2024/25 research this week. We’ll be placing our first bets ahead of the weekend, with the first game taking place on Friday night (Man Utd v Fulham).

As ever, we’ll be looking to get behind one or two outsiders at tasty Each Way prices.

Here’s how the top of the Premier League Top Goalscorer market currently looks at Bet365:

• 100/1+ bar

With the expected dominance of Haaland for Man City, we may also be looking to shop elsewhere again this season…

As I write, two or three bookmakers are offering a Premier League ante-post market called ‘Top Goalscorer WITHOUT Haaland.’ That’s testament to how good Erling is. And it could be good news, giving us four Each Way places to shoot out, without the big favourite…

The revised prices take that into account, of course. But as with last season, where we made a small profit from 16/1 Ollie Watkins in this market (Dead Heat for an Each Way place), there may be potentially a bit of juice in the ‘Without Haaland’ prices for a few players. I’ll report back at the end of the week, before the big kick-off.

I’ve also got my eye on another potential ‘alternative’ Premier League pre-season market, with eye-catching odds. Watch this space…

Lookout for an email this FRIDAY morning, with your chance to get those first Premier League bets, before anyone else…

Keep an eye on your emails!

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Across the Leagues Extra