Prem10

Weekend Picks - including a 4/1 shot for Tottenham v Man City...

Friday 1st May 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Prem10 Picks – 6 bets...
Including a 4/1 pick for Tottenham v Man City...

Chelsea can win the Premier League title on Sunday afternoon if they beat Crystal Palace at home – that’s one of five live games on TV over the bank holiday weekend…

The stats have thrown up plenty of opportunities for us with several strong trends and a couple of attractive prices catching our eye. Leading us to 6 Picks for the weekend, including a bet on Sunday's game between Tottenham and Man City live on Sky Sports...

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

Let’s kick off with the big game at the bottom of the table on Saturday lunchtime...

Leicester v Newcastle (TV) – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Leicester’s last 7 Home games
Newcastle have failed to score in their last 4 Away games
Leicester have kept Clean Sheets in 2 of their last 4 Home games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Newcastle’s last 3 games v fellow Bottom Half sides

There was just one goal scored in the reverse fixture at Newcastle earlier this season and while a lot has gone on since then, another low-scoring game does look on the cards. Newcastle have been on a shocking run of defeats but rather than take Leicester to win at around 10/11 (1.91) we prefer Under 2.5 Goals at the same price. See Stats Picks below.

Liverpool v QPR – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Liverpool’s last 5 Home games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in each of QPR’s last 8 Away games
There were 5 Yellow Cards in the reverse fixture earlier this season

A strong match-up on the Home v Away stats here with Over 3.5 Cards available at 5/6 (1.83) with Bet365. See Stats Picks below.

Sunderland v Southampton – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Sunderland’s last 10 games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Southampton’s last 10 games
Sunderland have failed to score in 5 of their last 10 games
Southampton have the best Away defensive record in the Premier League, with just 14 goals conceded in 16 games this season

Southampton beat Sunderland 8-0 earlier in the season but the stats point to a much more modest score-line this time. Under 2.5 Goals has proved a reliable bet on both teams in recent months but odds of 4/7 (1.57) in general and 6/10 (1.60) at best are a little too short for us to take an interest here.

Swansea v Stoke – Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 5 Stoke games in a row
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Swansea’s last 5 Home games
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Stoke’s last 5 Away games
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in the last 4 Premier League meetings between these sides, stretching back to January 2013

Just 3 pts separate these sides in the league table and 8th and 9th spots look likely to remain occupied between these two – this game could have an end-of-season feel about it and the stats suggest we’ll see goals. Both Teams to Score is a standout pick at Evens (2.00) with Betfred and Coral, and 10/11 (1.91) in general. See Stats Picks below.

Swansea v Stoke - Anytime Scorer

Stoke’s Charlie Adam has scored in 3 of their last 4 games
Swansea haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in 7 Home games

The stats say there’ll be goals here and the in-form Charlie Adam jumps off the Anytime Scorer list at odds of 5/1+ (6.00+) with Bet365, 888 Sport, Unibet and BetVictor. He’s as short as 3/1 (4.00) with some firms. Adam looks very good value at the best price 11/2 (6.50) with Bet365. See Value Picks below.

West Ham v Burnley – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 Burnley games in a row
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of West Ham’s last 5 Home games
Burnley have failed to score in their last 5 games, and in 7 of their last 8
West Ham have failed to score in their last 2 games, and in 5 of their last 10
Only one team (West Brom with 11) have scored less Away goals than Burnley’s total of 12 this season

Everything points to Burnley’s 9-game Under 2.5 Goals trend continuing here – both sides are struggling to score and West Ham are also woefully out of form with just 1 win in 12. A tight game in store and Under 2.5 Goals is our selection @ 4/5 (1.80) with Bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor and in general. See Stats Picks below.

Man Utd v West Brom (TV) – Match Result

Man Utd have won their last 6 Home games
Man Utd have won 100% of Home games v Bottom Half sides this season (9 out of 9)
West Brom have lost 4 of their last 7 games

Man Utd have an excellent Home record, but West Brom have only lost 1 of their last 5 against Top Half sides and odds of just 4/11 (1.36) for the Home win are too short for our liking.

Chelsea v Crystal Palace (TV) – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in Chelsea’s last 5 Home games, with an average of 6.2 Total Cards in that period
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Palace’s last 5 Away games, with an average of 5.0 Total Cards in that period

Both sides have featured in some ‘high Cards’ games recently, but odds of just 4/6 (1.67) for Over 3.5 Cards with Bet365 are a little too short for our liking.

Tottenham v Man City (TV) – Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals bets and Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 6 of Tottenham’s last 7 Home games
Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Man City’s last 5 Away games
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 7 of Man City’s last 8 Away games
Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of the last 7 meetings between these sides
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out 6 of the last 7 meetings
Man City’s Sergio Aguero is top scorer in the Premier League with 21 goals. Tottenham’s Harry Kane is 2nd on 20 goals

The last 3 games between these sides have each seen at least 5 goals scored, with City dishing out some heavy beatings to Spurs, 4-1 (H), 5-1 (A) and 6-1 (H). Goals are expected again on Sunday afternoon but the bookies are all over this trend with Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score both prohibitive odds-on price at 4/7 (1.57) each.

We’ll looking to the division’s top scorer here…

Tottenham v Man City (TV) - First Scorer

Sergio Aguero has landed First Scorer bets in City’s last 3 games
Aguero scored all 4 City goals in their 4-1 win over Tottenham earlier this season
Aguero has scored in each of City’s last 3 meetings with Tottenham

Sergio Aguero is on course to win the Premier League Top Scorer award after scoring 4 goals in City’s last 3 games. Aguero is Evens (2.00) in the Anytime Scorer betting but we like the First Scorer prices of 4/1 (5.00) with Coral, 7/2 (4.50) in general. See Value Picks below.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Leicester v Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 in general
Liverpool v QPR – Over 3.5 Cards @ 5/6 with Bet365
Swansea v Stoke – Both Teams to Score @ Evens with Betfred & Coral
West Ham v Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/5 with Bet365, Ladbrokes & Bet Victor

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Swansea v Stoke – Anytime Scorer – Charlie Adam @ 11/2 with Bet365

Tottenham v Man City – First Scorer – Sergio Aguero @ 4/1 with Coral

Latest Premier League odds here

I’ll be back on Tuesday with a results update. Until then, enjoy the weekend games...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk

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