Prem10

Easter Weekend Picks - including Harry at 9/2...

Thursday 2nd April 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Easter Weekend...
Prem10 Picks – 6 bets...

The Bank Holiday weekend football kicks off with Arsenal v Liverpool live on BT Sport on Saturday lunchtime...

That’s a big game in the race for 4th place but the stats haven’t flagged up any strong betting opportunities for us. We’re looking instead to a handful of games across the weekend fixture list – with the chance to cash-in at 2/1, 4/1 and 9/2 on some of the strongest trends in the league...

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’ll kick off our Easter weekend analysis at Old Trafford...

Man Utd v Aston Villa – Match Result

Man Utd have won 8 out of 8 Home games v Bottom Half sides this season (100%)
Man Utd are 2nd in the Premier League Form table, winning 5 of their last 6 games
Man Utd have won 4 of their last 5 at Home
Villa have lost 6 of their last 7 Away games
7 of Man Utd’s last 8 Home wins have been by more than 1 goal

Man Utd are clear favourites for the Home win but odds of 1/3 (1.33) are too short for us to consider. There’s a case to be made for backing Man Utd -1 Match Handicap (to win by more than 1 goal) but that’s also odds-on at 10/11 (1.91), and there’s no value for us there.

Leicester v West Ham – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Leicester’s last 6 Home games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of West Ham’s last 7 Away games
Leicester have failed to score in their last 3 Home games
West Ham have failed to score in 4 of their last 8 PL games

Under 2.5 Goals is clear pick here with both teams struggling to score in recent weeks. Available @ Evens (2.00) with Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Coral and 888 Sport. See Stats Picks below.

Leicester v West Ham – Total Corners

Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in Leicester’s last 5 Home games, and 77% for the season
Over 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 3 of West Ham’s last 4 Away games, and 71% for the season
There were 13 Corners when in West Ham’s 2-0 Home win over Leicester earlier this season

Over 10.5 Corners is also a strong trend in this match-up, but we’re priced out of it with Bet365 setting their Total Corners line a little too high for us at Over 11.5 Corners.

Swansea v Hull – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 6 of Swansea’s last 8 Premier League games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Hull’s last 5 Away games
Hull have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 Away games

Swansea won 1-0 at Hull when these sides met in December and the stats point to another low-scoring game this weekend. Under 2.5 Goals would be the Under/ Over pick but odds of just 3/5 (1.60) don’t offer much of a return for our money.

Swansea v Hull – Time of First Goal

Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 4 of Swansea’s last 5 Home games
Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 4 of Hull’s last 5 Away games
Time of First Goal – After 27th Minute bets have paid out in 8 of Swansea’s last 10 Premier League games overall
Average First Goal Time in Swansea Home games this season = 34 mins
Average First Goal Time in Hull Away games this season = 36 mins

The Time of First Goal stats point to an ‘After’ bet but we’re just edged out of a bet with the bookies raising the lines by up to 5 minutes from the standard 27th Minute mark. Boylesports are asking ‘After 34 Mins’ and that kind of line is too high for us.

With the Goals stats in mind, we’re drawn to a different market...

Swansea v Hull – To Win To Nil

9 of Swansea’s 12 wins this season have been To Nil
Swansea’s 5 Home wins v Bottom Half sides have all been To Nil
6 of Hull’s 7 Away defeats this season have been To Nil

Swansea are the 10/11 (1.91) favourites to win, but with all the above stats taken into account the Win To Nil market looks the place to be – with Swansea available @ 2/1 (3.00) with Skybet and BetVictor. See Stats Picks below.

Plenty of strong stats for this game and we’re also attracted to a 4/1 shot...

Swansea v Hull – Half Time/ Full Time

Bets on Half Time/ Full Time – Draw/ Swansea have paid out in each of Swansea’s last 4 wins
Hull have been drawing at Half Time in 4 of their last 5 Away games, going on to lose 3 of them

The stats point to Swansea and ‘late goals’ – and that makes the HT/ FT market worth investigating at a decent price. Half Time/ Full Time – Draw/ Swansea is the standout for us at 4/1 (5.00) with Betfred and 888 Sport. See Value Picks below.

West Brom v QPR – Match Result

West Brom have won 4 of their last 5 Home games
QPR have lost 13 out of 14 Away games this season
QPR have conceded 2+ goals in 12 of their 14 Away games
QPR have lost 5 games in a row, and 9 of their last 10

QPR have the worst Away record in the league and West Brom are a clear pick for the Home win. West Brom are 3/4 (1.75) to win but there are some significant Clean Sheet stats that lead us to a bigger price in the Win To Nil market...

West Brom v QPR – To Win To Nil

West Brom have kept a Clean Sheet and Won To Nil in each of their last 3 Home games
All 6 of West Brom’s Home wins this season have been To Nil
All 8 of West Brom’s Premier League wins this season have been To Nil

Backing West Brom To Win To Nil has paid out in 100% of their wins this season, and they face an opponent who have lost 5 in a row. Since Tony Pulis took over in January, West Brom have kept 6 Clean Sheets in 7 Home games in all competitions.

West Brom – To Win To Nil is a best price 15/8 (2.88) with BetVictor, and 7/4 (2.75) in general. See Stats Picks below.

Chelsea v Stoke (TV) – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Chelsea’s last 7 Home games, and 71% for the season
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of Stoke’s last 7 Away games
Stoke have failed to score in 3 of 6 Away games v Top Half sides
Stoke have failed to score in 7 of their last 8 meetings v Chelsea in all competitions

Chelsea are odds-on to win at just 3/10 (1.30), and also odds-on To Win To Nil at 4/5 (1.80). Chelsea have only won 1 of their last 4 Home games though while Under 2.5 Goals has paid out in 7 in a row. Under 2.5 Goals @ Evens (2.00) is the standout bet for us here. See Stats Picks below.

Sunderland v Newcastle (TV) – Total Cards

Over 5.5 Cards bets have paid out in 7 of the last 10 meetings between these sides
Average Total Cards in Sunderland Home games this season = 4.6 Cards
Average Total Cards in Newcastle Away games this season = 4.2 Cards

With this being a derby match we have to pay attention to the Cards & Bookings stats and the history between these sides. Bet365 have set their line higher than usual at Over 5.5 Cards (the Premier League standard is 3.5 Cards) – but considering that bet has paid out in just 1 of the last 3 North East derbies, we won’t be taking odds of just 4/6 (1.67).

Crystal Palace v Man City (TV) – Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Palace’s last 5 Home games, and 71% for the season
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Man City’s last 5 Away games
Man City haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in any of their last 6 Premier League Away games
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 7 of Palace’s 10 league games since Alan Pardew took over in January

Both Teams to Score is flagged up by the stats here but we’re not confident enough to take an odds-on price of 3/4 (1.75).

Burnley v Tottenham (TV) – First Scorer

Harry Kane has scored 5 of Tottenham’s last 6 Premier League goals
Kane has got 11 goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances
Kane has landed First Scorer bets in 2 of Tottenham’s last 3 Premier League games
Burnley have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 games

Tottenham games are seeing plenty of goals – 10 in a row going Over 2.5 Goals – and Harry Kane is the man in form. Kane is at the top of the First Scorer list here and odds of 9/2 (5.50) with BetVictor and Paddy Power look good value to us – he’s as short as 3/1 (4.00) elsewhere. See Value Picks below.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Leicester v West Ham – Under 2.5 Goals @ Evens with BetVictor
Swansea v Hull – Swansea – To Win To Nil @ 2/1 with BetVictor
West Brom v QPR – West Brom – To Win To Nil @ 15/8 with BetVictor
Chelsea v Stoke – Under 2.5 Goals @ Evens with BetVictor

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Swansea v Hull – Half Time/ Full Time – Draw/ Swansea @ 4/1 with 888 Sport
Burnley v Tottenham – First Scorer – Harry Kane @ 9/2 with BetVictor

Latest Premier League odds here

I’ll be back on Tuesday with an update on the latest stats and results...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk