Prem10

Your midweek stats – and bets for tonight...

Tuesday 3rd March 2015

In your Prem10 – Midweek email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Our Prem10 Picks – 5 bets...

This week’s Premier League action comes early with a full schedule of games across tonight and Wednesday evening...

There are several strong stats match-ups and some decent prices on offer – leading us to no fewer than 5 bets...

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the best value prices and markets on offer with our Prem10 Picks

The stats you need to know...

Starting with the Midlands derby – live on BT Sport this evening...

Aston Villa v West Brom (TV) – Match Result

West Brom have only lost 1 of their last 8 meetings against Villa (W3 D4 L1)
Villa have lost 7 Premier League games in a row – and are without a win in 12
West Brom have only lost 1 of their last 8 games – and drawn their last 4 Away games

West Brom have the edge in recent Midlands derbies and Villa are on a shocking losing streak. However, the price on the Away win has dropped from a high of 2/1+ yesterday and there doesn’t look to be too much value in the West Brom price – especially considering the history of draws in this fixture (4 of the last 6).

Aston Villa v West Brom (TV) – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of Villa’s last 10 games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 5 of West Brom’s last 10 games – and 4 of their last 5 Away
Villa have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 games

Under 2.5 Goals is the clear stats pick here but odds of just 1/2 (1.50) show the market is all over this trend. No bet.

Hull v Sunderland – Match Result

Hull have won 3 of their last 4 Home games v Bottom Half sides
Sunderland have only won 1 of their last 10 Premier League games
Hull have beaten Sunderland in each of their last 4 meetings in all comps since Nov 2013 – including a 3-1 Away win in the Premier League in December

Hull are the form pick here but odds of 5/4 (2.25) only look fair – and aren’t big enough to tempt us against a Sunderland side who draw more often then they lose.

Hull v Sunderland – Total Cards

Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Hull’s last 5 Home games
Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Sunderland’s last 5 Away games – and 77% for the season
There have been 6 Red Cards shown in 7 Premier League games between these two, with 5 shown in the last 4

Plenty of Cards expected in this one but we don’t get the chance to bet at the standard 3.5 Cards line, with Bet365 offering odds of 11/10 (2.10) for the higher Over 5.5 Cards line. That’s too steep for us.

There is a bet opportunity for us in another Bookings market though...

Hull v Sunderland – Team with Most Bookings

Sunderland have received the Most Bookings in each of their last 5 Away games
Bets on Sunderland to receive Most Bookings have paid out in 10 of their 13 Away games this season (77%)
Hull have received Most Bookings in just 1 of their last 7 Home games

One of the strongest stats of the week. Booking Points Match Bet – Sunderland stands out @ 4/5 (1.80) with Stan James. Also available, the same bet with a different name – Sunderland 0 Card Handicap @ 4/5 with Bet365. See Prem10 Picks below.

Southampton v Crystal Palace – Match Result

Southampton are 6th in the league table, but 13th on Last 6 Form
Palace are 12th in the league, but up to 7th on Last 6 Form
Palace had won their last 3 Away games
Southampton have only won 1 of their last 5 Premier League games – and none of their last 3 at Home

Recent form is key here and Palace look very good value in the Match Result markets. The Away win is 5/1 but we like the attractive Palace – Draw No Bet option @ 7/2 (4.50) with BetVictor and 3/1 (4.00) in general, which returns stakes in the event of a draw. See Picks below.

QPR v Arsenal – Match Result

QPR have lost 5 of their last 6 games
Arsenal have won 6 of their last 7 games
Arsenal have won 4 of 6 Away games v Bottom Half sides this season

One of the strongest Match Result stats of the week but odds of just 4/7 (1.57) for the Away win are nothing to get excited about.

Man City v Leicester – Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 8 of Man City’s last 10 Premier League games
Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Leicester’s last 5 Away games
Leicester have conceded 2+ goals in each of their last 4 Away games
Man City have kept just 1 Clean Sheet in 10 Premier League games – and just 1 in their last 5 at Home

This is a great trend and Both Teams to Score @ Evens (2.00) is one of the bets of the week for us. See Picks below.

Man City v Leicester – Corner Handicap

Man City have won the Most Corners in 11 out of 13 Home games (85%)
Bets on Man City -5 Corner Handicap have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Home games
Leicester have won Most Corners in just 2 of 14 Away games (14%)

At first glance Man City look the pick to cover a -5 Corner Handicap – available @ 20/21 (1.95) with Bet365 – but Leicester’s recent Away record puts us off taking that bet here. Opponents have only covered a -5 Corner Handicap in 1 of Leicester’s last 7 Away games.

Newcastle v Man Utd (TV) – Total Cards

Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Newcastle’s last 5 Premier League games
Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 6 of Man Utd’s last 7 games
Over 4.5 Cards bets have paid out in 4 of Man Utd’s last 5 Away games

A justifiably ‘high’ Total Cards line here – Over 4.5 Cards – looks a good bet to us at odds of 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365. See Picks below.

Stoke v Everton – Match Result

Stoke are 10th in the table but 4th on Last 6 Form – winning 4 of their last 6 games
Everton have lost 7 of their last 8 Away games
Stoke have won their last 3 Home games v Bottom Half sides

Everton are on a horrendous run of form away from home and Stoke are a solid pick @ 6/4 (2.50). See Picks below.

Liverpool v Burnley – Match Result

Liverpool have won 6 of their last 7 Premier League games
Burnley are without a win in 6 – losing 4
Liverpool have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 Home games

Liverpool to win looks the Home banker of the week – the Reds are top of the league on Last 6 Form – but odds of 2/5 (1.40) are not what we’re all about.

Prem10 Picks...

This week’s Prem10 Picks are...

Hull v Sunderland – Booking Points Match Bet – Sunderland @ 4/5 with Stan James
Southampton v Crystal Palace – Crystal Palace – Draw No Bet @ 7/2 with BetVictor
Man City v Leicester – Both Teams to Score @ Evens with Coral
Newcastle v Man Utd – Over 4.5 Cards @ 11/10 with Bet365
Stoke v Everton – Stoke to win @ 6/4 with William Hill

Latest Premier League odds here

Enjoy the midweek games. I’ll be back on Thursday with an update on the latest stats and results...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk