Champions League Final - standout stats and a 3/1 shot...
Friday 5th June 2015
In your Prem10 email today:
- Champions League Final – Juventus v Barcelona...
- The need-to-know stats... and the standout bets...
- Get 6/1 on Barcelona to win...
A special Prem10 email for you today as we cast our eye over this weekend’s Champions League Final...
See below for our stats analysis and advice for Juventus v Barcelona – where two bets in particular catch the eye...
Just like in your Premier League emails, we have:
- Done all the groundwork for you, including going through the match stats and Head-2-Head data for each team, to produce the stats you need to know before betting on Saturday’s Champions League Final
- And we’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
Here are the standout stats and prices for tomorrow’s game...
The Final
Juventus v Barcelona
Saturday 7.45pm, ITV1
Match odds: Juventus 5/1 (6.00) Draw 3/1 (4.00) Barcelona 8/13 (1.62)
To Lift the Trophy: Juventus 5/2 (3.50) Barcelona 1/3 (1.33)
Match Result
- Juve’s Champions League record this season is W7 D3 L2
- Barcelona’s CL record this season is W10 D0 L2
- Juventus have lost just 1 of their last 10 games in all comps
- Barcelona have lost just 1 of their last 10 games in all comps
- 6 of the last 10 Champions League Finals have been decided in Normal Time (60%) – and from the 4 Finals that went to Extra Time, 3 were decided on Penalties
Barcelona are odds-on to win in Normal Time @ 8/13 (1.62) but that looks a little short considering Juventus haven’t lost in 9 Champions League games stretching back to October.
Goals
- Barcelona are the second-highest scorers in the CL this season – averaging 2.33 Goals per game
- Juventus have conceded just 7 goals in 12 games in the competition – averaging just 0.58 Goals Against per game
- UNDER 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Juve’s 12 CL games (67%)
- OVER 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Barcelona’s 12 CL games (67%)
- Total Goals: ‘Exactly 2-3 Goals’ bets have paid out in 8 out of the last 10 Finals (80%)
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 8 out of the last 10 Finals (80%)
A mixed bag of Total Goals stats there and it would be no surprise to see another 2-3 Goals result here. No team have been able to stop Barcelona scoring in the Champions League this season, while Barca have only managed to keep a Clean Sheet in 50% of games. Total Goals: 2-3 is a best price Evens (2.00) with Ladbrokes, Sportingbet and BetVictor. See Stats Picks below.
Corners
- Both sides have won exactly the same amount of Corners in the competition – with both Juventus and Barcelona averaging 4.67 Corners For per game
- Juventus have won the Most Corners in just 4 of their 12 CL games (33%)
- Barcelona have won the Most Corners in 6 of their 12 games (50%)
- Under 10.5 Corners bets have paid out in 67% of both teams’ games
The bookies have Barcelona as the 4/9 (1.44) favourite to win the Most Corners but the stats suggest that’s not good value. Under 10.5 Corners would be the Total Corner pick but most bookies have dropped their line to Under 9.5 Corners for this game so those markets look best avoided.
Cards and Booking Points
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 50% of Juve’s CL games
- Over 3.5 Cards bets have paid out in 67% of Barca’s CL games
- Juventus have received the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in just 4 of their 12 CL games (33%)
- Barcelona have received the Most Cards/ Booking Pts in just 1 of their 12 CL games (8%)
The bookies have set the line at Under or Over 4.5 Cards here and that looks about right – the stats don’t give us enough of a lean to bet above or below that line.
In the Team with Most Bookings market Juventus are the favourite at 8/11 (1.73) but the season-long stats don’t paint a strong enough picture for us to take an odds-on price.
Scorers
- Lionel Messi is the joint Top Scorer in the competition with 10 goals – and has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 7 of Barcelona’s last 10 games in all comps
- Carlos Tevez has scored 7 of Juve’s 15 Champions League goals this season (47%)
Lionel Messi is Evens (2.00) in the 90 Minutes Anytime Scorer market and while we wouldn’t put you off backing the star man, we prefer the standout 3/1 (4.00) for Carlos Tevez...
The stats suggest Juventus can get on the score-sheet here and top scorer Tevez is the obvious candidate. Tevez also takes their Penalties and the 3/1 is a bigger price than you’d get for him in most games.... See Value Picks below.
Champions League Picks...
Our recommended bets for the Final are...
Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Total Goals – 2-3 Goals @ Evens with Ladbrokes
Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Anytime Scorer – Carlos Tevez @ 3/1 with Ladbrokes
P.S
Ladbrokes are best price about both our Picks for the Final – and are also offering Enhanced Odds of 6/1 for Barcelona to win in 90 Minutes for new customers...
You can check out that 6/1 offer here
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
