Prem10

Weekend Picks - including a 7/2 shot at Villa...

Friday 8th May 2015

In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:

This week’s need-to-know stats...
Prem10 Picks – 7 bets...
Including a 7/2 shot at Villa...

Chelsea v Liverpool is the glamour game on this week’s fixture list – but with the Premier League title race over, we’re focusing on the bottom of the table...

The stats have thrown several highly-rated bets this weekend and all 7 of our Picks feature teams in or around the Relegation places...

We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games

We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks

The stats you need to know...

We’ll kick off with Saturday’s early kick off at Goodison Park...

Everton v Sunderland (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

Sunderland have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in each of their last 8 Away games, and 13 out of 16 for the season
Everton have received Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 2 out of 17 Home games all season
Everton haven’t received the Most Cards/ Bookings Points in any of their last 10 Premier League games
Bets on opponents to win the Bookings Match Bet have paid out in each of Everton’s last 5 Home games

An excellent stats match-up here with relegation-threatened Sunderland a clear selection to win the Bookings Match Bet. It’s no surprise to see the Away side priced up as the favourites in this market, but we’re happy to take odds of 4/6 (1.67) about one of the very best trends of the weekend. Best price 4/6 with Stan James. Also available, Sunderland 0 Card Handicap @ 8/13 (1.62) with Bet365. See Stats Picks below.

Chelsea v Liverpool (TV) – Match Result

Chelsea have won 6 of their last 7 Premier League games
Liverpool have lost 2 of their last 3 Away games
Chelsea have won 75% of Home games v Top 5 sides and Top Half sides this season
Chelsea have beaten Liverpool 3 times in a row in the league

Most weeks we would be all over odds of 11/10 (2.10) for the Chelsea Home win, but with the Premier League title in the bag Chelsea don’t actually need the points. Liverpool on the other hand are still chasing 4th place. No bet for us.

Chelsea v Liverpool (TV) – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 of Chelsea’s last 10 Home games
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 8 of Liverpool’s last 10 Away games

Under 2.5 Goals is highly-rated on the stats but with the end-of-season nature of this game we’re avoiding general odds of 8/11 (1.73).

Aston Villa v West Ham – First Scorer

Christian Benteke has scored 7 of Villa’s last 10 Premier League goals
Bets on Benteke – Anytime Scorer have paid out in 7 of his last 10 appearances in all comps for club & country
Benteke has scored in 4 of his last 5 league games
Benteke – First Scorer bets have paid out in 2 of Villa’s last 3 PL games

The fact that West Ham have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 Away games means we should look to the Villa players in the Scorer markets here – and no-one is in better form than Christian Benteke.

Benteke is Evens (2.00) to find the net at Anytime but we prefer the 7/2 (4.50) in general and standout 15/4 (4.75) with Bet365 in the First Scorer market. See Value Picks below.

Hull v Burnley – Total Goals

Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 10 Burnley games in a row
Burnley have failed to score in 8 of their last 9 games, including their last 6 in a row
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 10 of Hull’s last 15 games v Bottom Half sides
Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 3 of Hull’s last 4 games

This is a huge game in the Relegation battle, and the stats says it will be close. Just 1 goal was enough to separate these sides in the reverse fixture earlier in the season and another low-scoring game looks on the cards here. Under 2.5 Goals is a solid selection at 7/10 (1.70) with Bet365, BetVictor, Sportingbet and Winner.com. See Stats Picks below.

Leicester v Southampton – Winning Margin

Leicester have won 5 of their last 6 games
Southampton have lost 4 of their last 5 Away games
10 of Southampton’s 12 Premier League defeats this season have been by a 1-goal margin
6 of Leicester’s 9 wins have been by 1 goal

Recent form is key here and despite their late surge, Leicester still have work to do to avoid the drop. Southampton have been beaten on their last 4 trips to teams below them in the table (v Sunderland, Stoke, Everton and West Brom), losing 2-1 or 1-0 on each occasion, and in-form Leicester are capable of edging another win here...

Rather than take the Home win at 13/8 (2.62), we like Leicester To Win By 1 Goal @ 18/5 (4.60) in the Winning Margin market at BetVictor. Also available @ 3/1 (4.00) in general. See Value Picks below.

Newcastle v West Brom – Match Result

Newcastle have lost 8 games in a row
West Brom have won their last 2 Away games, 2-0 at Crystal Palace and 1-0 at Man Utd
West Brom have lost just 2 of 8 Away games v fellow Bottom Half sides this season
Newcastle have lost 11 out of 16 Premier League games under John Carver
West Brom have lost just 5 of 16 games since Tony Pulis took over

Newcastle are on a horrendous losing run and are now just 2 pts off the Relegation places. West Brom are in decent form and look a dangerous visitor here – odds of 2/1 (3.00) for the Away win catch our eye. Best price 2/1 with Bet365, Boylesports, Sportingbet, Winner.com, Betfair Sportsbook. See Stats Picks below.

Newcastle v West Brom – Corner Handicap

Newcastle have won the Most Corners in each of their last 5 Home games, and 76% for the season
Opponents have won the Most Corners in each of West Brom’s last 6 Premier League games
Newcastle -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Home games, and 71% for the season
Newcastle average 2.9 Corners per Home game more than opponents
West Brom average 1.9 Corners per Away game less than opponents

Newcastle have one of the best Home Corner-winning records in the division and are a standout pick in the Corner Handicap market here. Newcastle -1 Corner Handicap is a best price 21/20 (2.05) with Bet365. Also available at 10/11+ (1.91+) with Paddy Power, BetVictor, William Hill. See Stats Picks below.

Man City v QPR (TV) – Match Result

Man City have won each of their last 5 Home games
City have won their last 3 Premier League games
QPR have lost 7 of their last 10 games (W1 D2 L7)
City have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 5 Home games

Defeat here would confirm Relegation for QPR and the formbook – and the betting – points squarely to the Home win. Man City are the shortest price team on the Match Result coupon this weekend though, at 2/9 (1.22) in general, and that’s too short for us to get involved.

Man City v QPR (TV) – Team with Most Bookings

QPR have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in 8 of their last 10 games, including each of their last 4
Bets on QPR to win the Bookings Match Bet have paid out in 5 of their last 6 Away games
Man City have received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in just 1 of their last 8 Home games
QPR have received at least 3 Yellow Cards in each of their last 6 Away games
City have received just 3 Yellow Cards in total in their last 3 Home games

Overwhelming evidence to back QPR in the Bookings Match Bet markets here, available at around 8/13 (1.62) with William Hill and Stan James – and a best price 4/6 (1.67) for QPR 0 Card Handicap with Bet365. See Stats Picks below.

Man City v QPR (TV) – First Scorer

Man City’s Sergio Aguero has scored in 4 games in a row, with First Scorer bets paying out each time
Aguero is the Top Scorer in the Premier League this season
Aguero has scored 5 of the 9 goals that City have scored in their last 5 games

Sergio Aguero is in great form but unfortunately there’s little value to be had in the Scorer markets here. Last weekend we successfully backed Aguero First Scorer at 4/1 (5.00) – this week he is just 11/4 (3.75), which is as short a price as we have seen any Premier League striker all season.

Prem10 Picks...

This weekend’s bets are...

Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:

Everton v Sunderland – Bookings Match Bet – Sunderland @ 4/6 with Stan James
Hull v Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals @ 7/10 with Bet365
Newcastle v West Brom – West Brom to win @ 2/1 with Bet365
Newcastle v West Brom – Newcastle -1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 with Bet365
Man City v QPR – QPR 0 Card Handicap @ 4/6 with Bet365

Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:

Aston Villa v West Ham – First Scorer – Christian Benteke @ 15/4 with Bet365
Leicester v Southampton – Winning Margin – Leicester to Win By 1 Goal @ 18/5 with BetVictor

Latest Premier League odds here

I’ll be back on Monday with a results update.

Enjoy the weekend action...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone
Editor

Prem10
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