Weekend Picks - including a 25/1 shot at Swansea...
Friday 10th April 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:
- This week’s need-to-know stats...
- 25/1 value at Swansea...
- Prem10 Picks – 6 bets...
This weekend’s big game is the Manchester derby – 3rd place Man Utd v 4th place Man City...
See below for our Red Card stats on that one. Along with our weekend stats and betting picks from across the fixture list – including an eye-catching 25/1 shot at Swansea.
- We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games
- We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
We’re kicking off our weekend analysis with the Saturday lunchtime TV game...
Swansea v Everton (TV) – Total Cards
- Swansea have received just 1 Yellow Card in total across their last 5 Premier League games
- Swansea haven’t received the Most Cards/ Booking Points in any of their last 16 PL games
- Everton have only received more than 1 Yellow Card in a game in 1 of their last 6 PL games
These sides hover around a 50% strike-rate for Under 3.5 Cards bets this season, but a closer look at the recent form and individual team tallies shows both Swansea and Everton have both posted a series of ‘1 Card’ and ‘No Cards’ results in recent weeks. With this low figures in mind we like Under 3.5 Cards at 11/10 (2.10) with Bet365. See Stats Picks below.
Swansea v Everton (TV) – First Card
- Swansea have received No Cards in the game in 5 of their last 10 PL games
- Everton have received No Cards in the game in 3 of their last 6
- Bets on First Card – ‘No Card’ have paid out in 3 of Swansea’s last 10 PL games
Backing the ‘No Card’ option in the First Card market in each of Swansea’s last 10 games to level stakes at odds of 25/1 has produced 68 pts profit for a 680% Return on Investment. With the above stats in mind, and at this stage of the season – with both sides safe around the middle of the table – there’s certainly a case for a No Cards game here.
There’s a discrepancy in the price with Bet365 as short as 14/1 (15.00) for No Cards while Stan James has the best value for sure with First Team Booking – No Booking available at a standout 25/1 (26.00). Also available @ 24/1 with BetBright and 22/1 with Paddy Power. See Value Picks below.
Southampton v Hull – Total Goals
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 Southampton games in a row
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Hull’s last 6 Away games
- The last two meetings between these sides have finished 1-0 to Southampton
Southampton are on a 9-game streak for Under 2.5 Goals bets but the bookies are well aware of this, with odds of just 4/6 (1.67).
Southampton v Hull – Corner Handicap
- Southampton have won the Most Corners in their last 5 Home games, and in 8 of their last 10 overall
- Southampton -4 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in each of their last 5 Home games
- Opponents have won the Most Corners in 6 of Hull’s Away game v Top Half sides this season, with -4 Corner Handicaps paying out in 4 of those 8
Southampton are a strong pick in the Corner Handicap market here. The -4 Corner Handicap is available @ Evens+ (2.00) with Paddy Power, BetVictor, William Hill and Bet365, but we prefer the lower -3 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 (1.91) with Paddy Power. That option requires Southampton to win at least 4 corners more than Hull, as opposed to 5 with the higher -4 line. See Stats Picks below.
Sunderland v Crystal Palace – Match Result & Both Teams to Score
- Palace are 11th in the Premier League table but up to 4th on Last 6 Form (W4 D1 L1)
- Sunderland have won just 2 of their last 10 PL games. Palace have won 4 of their last 5
- Palace have won 3 games in a row, and 4 of their last 5 Away
- ‘Win & Both Teams to Score’ bets have paid out in 8 of Palace’s 10 wins this season, including 6 of their 7 wins since Alan Pardew took over in January
Crystal Palace are the form side here but rather than take 7/4 (2.75) for an Away win, we are drawn to Palace to Win & Both Teams to Score at attractive odds of 5/1 (6.00) in general and a standout 11/2 (6.50) with Coral...
Palace have kept just 1 Clean Sheet in 11 games since Pardew arrived but have won 7 of those 11 – making the Win & Both Teams to Score a profitable bet, with 34.5 pts profit to level stakes and a 314% Return on Investment in that period. See Value Picks below.
Sunderland v Crystal Palace – Corner Handicap
- Sunderland -1 Corner Handicap bets have paid out in 4 of their last 5 Home games
- Bets on opponents with a -1 Corner Handicap have paid out in 7 of Palace’s last 7 Away games, including each of the last 4
- Sunderland average 1.9 Corners per Home game MORE than opponents this season
- Palace average 2.6 Corners per Away game LESS than opponents
Solid Corners stats here and the bookies are playing ball, giving us the opportunity to follow Sunderland’s strong -1 Corner Handicap trend. Available at 21/20 (2.05) with Bet365, or 10/11 (1.91) with William Hill. See Stats Picks below.
Tottenham v Aston Villa – Match Result & Both Teams to Score
- Tottenham have won 5 of their last 6 at Home
- Villa have lost 5 of their last 6 Away
- Win & Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in each of Tottenham’s last 7 Home wins, and in 12 of their last 13 wins overall
Tottenham are odds-on to win at 8/13 (1.62) and it’s hard to argue with the form. Tottenham haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in 6 Home games though and that makes the Win & Both Teams to Score market of interest here...
Villa have the worst scoring record in the league this season but have improved in that department since Tim Sherwood took over in February, scoring in 5 out of 7 league games. Tottenham to Win & Both Teams to Score is a best price 12/5 (3.40) with 888 Sport, 23/10 (3.30) with Coral. See Stats Picks below.
Burnley v Arsenal (TV) – Match Result
- Arsenal have won 7 Premier League games in a row
- Burnley have won just 1 of their last 10 games
Arsenal are the form team in the league right now and going for an 8th straight win, but relegation-battling Burnley are unbeaten in their last 2 Home games v Top 6 sides Man City (won 1-0) and Tottenham (0-0). That’s enough to put us off short odds of 4/7 (1.57) for the Away win.
And finally, we can’t let our weekend stats analysis pass without considering the options in the big game at Old Trafford...
Man Utd v Man City (TV) – Total Cards
- There has been a Red Card in 4 of the last 10 Manchester derbies
- Over 5.5 Cards bets have paid out in 5 of the last 10 Premier League meetings between these sides
- Just 1 of the last 10 Premier League games that Referee, Mark Clattenburg has taken charge of have gone Over 5.5 Cards
This Manchester derby carries more spice than most with United recently going above City in the league for the first time in 18 months. There’s a history of Red Cards in this fixture but there is little other evidence in the above stats for this to go Over the bookies’ 5.5 Cards line (Bet365). This game is one to watch – but there’s no bet for us.
Prem10 Picks...
This weekend’s bets are...
Stats Picks – looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets flagged up by the stats:
- Swansea v Everton – Under 3.5 Cards @ 11/10 with Bet365
- Southampton v Hull – Southampton -3 Corner Handicap @ 10/11 with Paddy Power
- Sunderland v Crystal Palace – Sunderland -1 Corner Handicap @ 21/20 with Bet365
- Tottenham v Aston Villa – Tottenham to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 12/5 with 888 Sport
Value Picks – our pick of the best value prices on offer:
- Swansea v Everton – First Team Booking – No Booking @ 25/1 with Stan James
- Sunderland v Crystal Palace – Palace to Win & Both Teams to Score @ 11/2 with Coral
Latest Premier League odds here
That’s all from me for today – I’ll be back on Monday with a results update. Enjoy the weekend sport...
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
