Weekend Picks - including 2/1 value at Man Utd...
Friday 13th March 2015
In your Prem10 – Weekend email today:
- This week’s need-to-know stats...
- Austin, Kane and Stoke are the value...
- Prem10 Picks – 5 bets...
A big weekend ahead in the Premier League with five games live on TV – including Chelsea v Southampton and Man Utd v Tottenham on Sky Sports’ Super Sunday...
This week’s Stats You Need To Know list has flagged up a couple of strong trends in both those games, along with some 2/1 value in the Scorer markets...
- We’ve done all the groundwork for you and gone through the Head-2-Head stats on our site to produce our stats that you need to know before betting on this week’s Premier League games
- We’re then looking to cash-in on the top-rated bets and the best value prices on offer with our Prem10 Stats Picks & Value Picks
The stats you need to know...
We’ll kick off with the big the Saturday lunchtime game on BT Sport...
Crystal Palace v QPR (TV) – Both Teams to Score
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of Palace’s last 5 Home games
- Both Teams to Score bets have paid out in 4 of QPR’s last 5 Away games
- Palace haven’t kept a Clean Sheet in 10 Home games
- QPR have kept just 1 Clean Sheet in 13 Away games this season
These two played out a 0-0 earlier in the season but Palace games have seen plenty of goals since Alan Pardew took over (a 50-50 record for Under/ Over 2.5 Goals), and both teams’ stats point to Both Teams to Score here. Available @ 10/11 (1.91) in general and Evens (2.00) with Betway. See Stats Picks below.
There also looks to be some good value in the Scorer markets here...
Crystal Palace v QPR (TV) – Anytime Scorer
- Charlie Austin has scored 7 goals in his last 6 appearances v Bottom Half sides – landing Anytime Scorer bets in 5 of those 6 games
- Austin has scored in 2 of QPR’s last 3 games
- Austin has landed Anytime Scorer bets in 5 out of 10 Away starts this season
- Austin has scored 15 of QPR’s 29 Premier League goals (52%)
Charlie Austin has scored over half of QPR’s goals this season and odds of 2/1+ to score look too big against a Palace side who haven’t kept a Clean Sheet at Home since September. Anytime Scorer – Charlie Austin is 9/4 (3.25) with Ladbrokes and 2/1 with BetVictor and Stan James. See Value Picks below.
Arsenal v West Ham – Match Result
- Arsenal have won 4 Premier League games in a row, and 7 of their last 8
- Arsenal have won 7 Home games in a row
- West Ham have lost their last 2 games, and have won just 1 of their last 11
- Arsenal have scored 2+ goals in each of their last 6 Home games
- Bets on Arsenal to be winning at Half Time and Full Time have paid out 6 times in a row at Home
Arsenal are on an exceptional winning run at Home and it’s no surprise to see them in as 4/9 (1.44) favourites to win this weekend. That price is too short for us to take though, as is the Half Time/ Full Time win @ Evens (2.00) – in the knowledge that West Ham have found the net in their last 5 meetings with Arsenal.
Sunderland v Aston Villa – Total Goals
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Sunderland’s last 5 Home games, and 71% for the season
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Villa’s last 5 Away games, and 79% for the season
- Sunderland have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 games
- Villa haven’t scored in 6 Away games
Both sides have a woeful scoring record of late and played out a 0-0 draw at Villa in December. Villa have sparked into life a little since Tim Sherwood took over though so Coral’s 7/1 for another 0-0 is not big enough to tempt us in (a goalless draw is usually nearer the 10/1 mark). Likewise Under 2.5 Goals is very short at 4/7 (1.57) in general. We have this down as a draw but we’re not convinced enough for a bet.
West Brom v Stoke – Match Result
- West Brom have won 3 of their last 4 Home games
- Stoke have won 3 of their last 5 Away games
- Stoke have won 3 of their last 5 Away games v Bottom Half sides
- Stoke are 8th in the Premier League table – but up to 4th on Last 6 Form
- Stoke have won 5 of their last 7 league games
- Stoke are unbeaten v West Brom in 5 Premier League games over the last 3 seasons (W3 D2)
Nothing wrong with West Brom’s Home form since Tony Pulis took over, but the betting value is most definitely with the in-form Away side here. Stoke are 5/2 (3.50) to win at West Brom for what would be the 6th time in a row. We’re backing the Away win – see Value Picks below.
Burnley v Man City – Team with Most Bookings
- Man City have received the Most Bookings in each of their last 6 Away games
- Bets on Man City to win the Bookings Match Bet have paid out in 11 of their 14 Away games this season (79%)
- Burnley haven’t received the Most Bookings in any of their last 8 Home games
- Burnley have received the Most Bookings in just 2 of 14 Home games this season
- When these sides met as Man City in December, City received 4 Cards (40 pts) and Burnley just 1 Card (10 pts)
Man City to receive the Most Bookings is proving one of the betting trends of the season, and we get the opportunity to back it at odds-against prices once again this weekend...
Burnley themselves have a good disciplinary record and that only adds weight to the case for City landing the Bookings Match Bet or 0 Card Handicap (the same bet with a different name) for what would be the 7th Away game in a row. Best price 13/10 (2.30) with Bet365. See Stats Picks below.
Chelsea v Southampton (TV) – Total Goals
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 7 of Chelsea’s last 8 Home games
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 9 of Southampton’s last 10 Premier League games
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 4 of Chelsea’s 5 games v this season’s current Top 5 sides
- Under 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in Southampton’s last 4 games v the Top 5
Under 2.5 Goals is one of the strongest stats match-ups of the weekend, but the market is on top of this with the Under option 8/11 (1.73) pretty much across the board. A strong trend but on this occasion the bookies have got a hold on it.
Man Utd v Tottenham (TV) – Total Goals
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 71% of Man Utd Home games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in 85% of Tottenham Away games
- Over 2.5 Goals bets have paid out in each of Tottenham’s last 9 Premier League games
There’s a history of goals in this fixture with 5 of the last 7 meetings going Over 2.5 Goals in the last 3 seasons – and recent form says to expect more goalmouth action this weekend. The market expects the same though with Over 2.5 Goals the Under/ Over favourite @ just 3/4 (1.75).
We’re going after the value in Scorer market...
Man Utd v Tottenham (TV) – Anytime Scorer
- Harry Kane has scored 8 goals in his last 10 games for Tottenham
- Kane had landed Anytime Scorer bets in each of his last 6 Away appearances in the Premier League
Harry Kane is one of the league’s in-form strikers and with goals expected in this game, we can’t ignore the 2/1 (3.00) available for Kane in the Anytime Scorer market with Ladbrokes and Betbright. Backing Kane at those prices to level stakes in his last 10 games has produced 14 pts profit and a 140% Return on Investment. See Value Picks below.
Prem10 Picks...
This week’s bet selections are...
Stats Picks:
- Crystal Palace v QPR – Both Teams to Score @ Evens with Betway
- Burnley v Man City – Man City 0 Card Handicap @ 13/10 with Bet365
Value Picks:
- Crystal Palace v QPR – Anytime Scorer – Charlie Austin @ 9/4 with Ladbrokes
- West Brom v Stoke – Stoke to win @ 5/2 with BetVictor
- Man Utd v Tottenham – Anytime Scorer – Harry Kane @ 2/1 with Ladbrokes
Latest Premier League odds here
Enjoy the games. I’ll be back on Monday with an update on the latest stats and results.
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone
Editor
Prem10
www.Prem10.co.uk |
